The wheels have fallen off Lebanon

The value of the Lebanese currency is approaching zero. The cost of living is soaring, as are homicide and burglary rates. The private sector has had to step in to secure enough vaccines to immunize the adult population, while the government projects bankruptcy by the end of spring. The storyline in Lebanon has not improved since the Beirut blast on August 4, and the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, has now taken up the crusade of saving the country after having successfully blocked the IMF recovery plan, the adoption of any reform legislation, rejiggering the World Bank loan of $246 million to favor the banks and the government, and stifling efforts to form a new government of experts with executive powers.

Where has Berri been since August 4? Obviously he is one of the government leaders who was absent from touring the blast site and talking with the victims. He and his party, Amal, in line with its partners Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement of President Aoun, have done little to make it possible for Lebanon to survive as an independent and functioning country. Only the need for an expensive band-aid that serves his constituencies brought him to marginally respond to the multiple crises facing the country.

In a much reported speech carried by the international media, he opened the Parliamentary session on March 29 saying, “The whole country is in danger, the whole country is the Titanic. It’s time we all woke up because in the end, if the ship sinks, there’ll be no one left.” These comments could have been made at any time since the end of 2020 but for some reason, there was no call for urgency from Parliament’s leader until now, and only because of the need to provide an advance of $200 million to the electricity company to pay for fuel for the next 2 ½ months. And of course the first power plant to shut down was the one that served the southern regions of Lebanon, prime Shiite territory.

As another indication of the lack of concern by the political bosses, the Parliament also passed a law to recover stolen public funds, a prime demand of protestors. Yet, even Jamil al-Sayyed, a Hezbollah-affiliated member of Parliament remarked, “Effectively, all these texts cannot be implemented. What’s happening is a charade… We’re lying to you.”

No wonder the international community, led by the French, continues to condemn the lack of action by Lebanon’s leaders. The French Foreign Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, made personal phone calls to President Aoun, Prime Minister designate Saad Hariri, and parliament speaker Nabih Berri, “urging them for an immediate halt to what he called ‘deliberate obstruction’ that is driving the country towards collapse.” His description echoes the World Bank charge that Lebanon’s deterioration is a “deliberate depression” because the remedies are known but not enacted due to the obstructions of the leadership.

He added “The deliberate obstruction of any prospect of an exit from the crisis … by demands that are unreasonable and out-of-date must immediately halt,” a statement from his office reported. “The time has come to strengthen pressure “to end the blockage,” a point also made by the recent ATFL-MEI policy brief to the Biden administration. In it, the organizations called for a senior-level diplomatic demarche from the US, France, and key powers, to give the government an ultimatum for adopting a government with power to make critical reforms. Otherwise, an international effort would be launched to provide humanitarian and reconstruction assistance directly to the Lebanese people, without involving the government.

The US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, weighed in with the US government’s concern, in a meeting with President Aoun on March 25, saying later, “Now that we are almost eight months without a fully-empowered government, isn’t now the time to let go of those demands? To begin compromising?” She added, “Right now, there is a need for courageous leaders, who are ready to put aside their partisan differences and work together to rescue the country from the multiple crises and self-inflected wounds it is facing.”

Whether or not this international pressure will make a difference is hard to tell. When Berri acknowledges the gravity of the catastrophe but doesn’t propose reform solutions, it just adds to the wreckage. If, on the other hand, he wants to leave Lebanon with a valued legacy, he can assert his leadership and move Lebanon away from the abyss and forward towards recovery.

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 03/30/21

DAILY NEWS


France Heightens Pressure on Lebanon to Form Government
Associated Press

Ambassador Dorothy Shea Inaugurates Munitions Storage Facilities at Hamat Air Base
US Embassy Beirut

Lebanon: Tripoli Detainees Allege Torture, Forced Disappearance
Human Rights Watch

Aoun to UNHCR Representative: Refugees Drove Lebanon to Exhaustion
Naharnet

OPINION & ANALYSIS


Weapons or Food? Lebanon’s Armed Forces Risk Going Hungry
Nicholas Blanford
Atlantic Council

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

This Week In Lebanon: 3/28/2021

March 28, 2021
 Arab Leagues Offers to Intervene 
 Diab Asks for Caretaker Role Interpretation
 Fights Break Out in Grocery Stores as Food Prices Soar 
Arab League Offers to Intervene in Lebanon’s Political Gridlock
On Tuesday, the Arab League expressed concern over the deteriorating situation in Lebanon and urged political leaders in Lebanon to end the political deadlock. The organization offered to intervene to help overcome the crisis. [Reuters]
ANALYSIS
“While the Arab League offer to urge Lebanese politicians to work quickly to end a political deadlock, more is needed from the US and France. The ATFL and MEI have collaborated on a policy brief to the Biden Administration on how to help Lebanon. The first recommendation underscores the need for the US lead a high-level contact group to Lebanon to urge the leadership to step aside in favor of a reform government that can address the needs of the Lebanese people. If no response is forthcoming, the US, France, and its partners should announce during the same trip the establishment of an international fund that will bypass government and address the urgent humanitarian and social safety net needs of the Lebanese through international organizations and NGOs, and Lebanese civil society. Saving the Lebanese people should now be the focus of the international community, rather than a government that shows no interest in the needs of its people.”
-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

Read ATFL policy recommendations


Diab Asks for Caretaker Role Interpretation
On Wednesday Caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab asked Lebanon’s parliament to identify a “constitutional interpretation” that defined the limits of a caretaker Cabinet’s jurisdiction and role. The request comes days after Hasan Nasrallah called for reactivating the resigned government. [Naharnet]
ANALYSIS
“Caretaker Diab’s call for a constitutional interpretation of the role of a caretaker government is the most recent reminder of the inept character of the Parliament’s incapacity for constructive leadership. It passes legislation but does not provide for implementation; it creates programs but sets weak or non-existent standards for performance; it fiddles while the country burns. When will leadership emerge that acts as if Lebanon is a country of people, not sectarian interests?”
-ATFL Policy Director Jean AbiNader

Fights Break Out in Grocery Stores as Food Prices Soar
Grocery stores are struggling to stay open as food prices rise over 400 percent. Lebanese are having trouble obtaining even basic staples and essentials like oil, flour, sugar, and rice have tripled or quadrupled in price. Out of desperation, fights have broken out in grocery store aisles over food items subsidized by the government. [New York Times]
ANALYSIS
“The story by now is well known – food prices have soared more than 450% over last year and the ability of people to pay even the inflated prices has decreased more than 90%. It is a crime against humanity that progress is not being made on stabilizing the currency and restoring some degree of consumer viability. Our colleagues at LIFE and the caretaker Minister of the Economy and his advisor have both issued papers that should be read about immediate short-term band-aids that will restore the capacity of the poor, extreme poor, and those facing food shortages to survive. Their advice should be heeded.”
-ATFL Policy Director Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 03/24/21

DAILY NEWS


Saudi Envoy Urges Lebanon Politicians to Form New Government Quickly
Reuters

Lebanon’s Economy Ministry Just Raised the Price of Bread for the Fourth Time
Souad Lazkani
The 961

Salameh Facing ‘Difficulties’ to Reduce Dollar Rates
Naharnet

Lebanon’s COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout Boosted by Private Sector Initiatives
The Daily Star

OPINION & ANALYSIS


No One Left in Lebanon But the Wicked and the Weary
Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 03/23/21

DAILY NEWS


Cabinet Talks in Lebanon Break Down, Heralding More Collapse
Zeina Karam
Associated Press

Arab League Urges Lebanese Politicians to End Political Deadlock, Offers Help
Reuters

Schenker: Aoun, Bassil Want Veto Power to Ensure Bassil’s Accession to the Presidency
Naharnet

Lebanon’s Financial Collapse Hits Where It Hurts: The Grocery Store
Ben Hubbard and Hwaida Saad
New York Times

OPINION & ANALYSIS


Michel Aoun and Saad Hariri Have Failed to Agree Over a New Government in Lebanon
Michael Young
Carnegie Middle East Center

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

No One Left in Lebanon but the Wicked and the Weary

It is no surprise to those who read my blogs to note that from time to time I make references to my family, especially the wisdom of my parents. These days, thinking of Lebanon, two expressions from my mother seem appropriate: “There is no rest for the wicked,” and, “There is no rest for the weary.” Today, in my mind, they both apply to Lebanon, but at opposite ends of society.

The expressions have similar origins. According to one source, “No rest for the wicked begins as no peace for the wicked in a 1425 rendering of the Old Testament’s Book of Isaiah 48:2: ‘The Lord God said, peace is not to wicked men.’ The sentiment is echoed in Isaiah 57:20, which in the King James Version reads: ‘But the wicked are like the troubled sea, when it cannot rest.’” No rest for the weary is rooted in a proverb that implies resignation and perseverance, accepting to continue to slog along despite being downtrodden. And so we have the status of Lebanon reduced to two simple expressions…thanks Libby.

Some may take umbrage at referring to Lebanon’s leaders as the wicked, but how else to explain their lack of remorse when it comes to rescuing the “weary,” the Lebanese whose desperation is due largely to the politicians’ mismanagement and venality? Karim Emile Bitar, head of the Institute of Political Science at Saint Joseph University in Beirut, has remarked, “Lebanon’s political class continues its long habit of bickering and fighting for resources, but – with hyper-inflation and rampant poverty – it’s like they’re squabbling over a field of ruins, where there isn’t much left to divvy up or to steal.”

The recent threats by major EU powers to sanction Lebanon’s leaders indicate the frustration of the international community with business as usual by the ruling elites. “Lebanon’s political class – which is totally incompetent when it comes to governing but very effective at staying in power – was playing a game in which it pretended to listen to Macron while in the glare of the world’s attention after the Beirut blast, without actually doing anything to follow through,” Bitar said. The oligarchs are even second-guessing the Biden administration, hoping that détente with Iran will give them a lifeline to continue their avarice and gradually cede even more power to Hezbollah.

Left in limbo are the investigations into the blast at the Beirut Port, the assassination of Lukman Slim, and violations of human rights by some security forces. With the economy in freefall, the “weary” find themselves without funds to purchase essential supplies while the cost of living is up over 146%. The Parliament has not acted on bills submitted that would incrementally move towards reforms, causing the caretaker Prime Minister Diab to attempt to leave his position. Bitar said, “It’s a surreal situation. Diab’s government has admitted that it’s totally impotent – with an energy minister who announces that the electricity will be cut in a fortnight, an interior minister who says security forces are no longer able to ensure people’s safety, and a prime minister who has handed in his resignation and doesn’t want to be doing the job.”

In the street the people are seething, fighting the government and demanding change; and fighting among themselves for scarce commodities. As CNN reported, “The loss of subsidies could be the watershed moment that threatens to tip Lebanon over to Venezuela-like scenarios, exacerbating the existing food, fuel, and medical shortages.” It continued, “Families living on a minimum wage — now less than $50 a month — will be unable to afford basic food staples as inflation skyrockets. Already strained security forces, which must contend with the frustrations of its newly pauperized rank and file, will have to deal with growing crime rates and the possibility of long-simmering political tensions coming to a head.” There is talk that civil conflict in inevitable without a breakthrough to reset the economy.

The tension is spiraling upwards as Hezbollah and the Maronite Catholic Church squared off about the need to move ahead by enlisting the international community’s support. Sayed Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah, walked back his support for a government of specialists to implement reforms, claiming that relying on the IMF restructuring was an American-Israeli plot. No one escaped his ire. He called out the Patriarch, the head of the Maronite Church; PM designate Saad Hariri who is unable to form a new government as the power brokers want to retain their prerogatives; the governor of the Central Bank; and the caretaker prime minister whom he urged to be ready for Plan B – to retake the reins of government with no assurances that the results would now be different; saving some vitriol for people demonstrating against the government for relief.

The famed resilience of the Lebanese is fading rapidly as the street is becoming more militant. There are only two classes left, the wicked and the weary. Tempers are rising; security less sure; and no one stepping forward with solutions acceptable to politicians who resent a diminishing of their powers. With Lebanon quickly approaching the abyss, fear is growing that the country will not survive as an independent, secure, and stable democracy. My parents would not be amused.

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 03/19/21

DAILY NEWS


Lebanon Hezbollah Chief Will Support New Cabinet if Announced Monday
Reuters

BDL Allows Banks to Conduct Exchange Transactions to Control Currency Depreciation
Naharnet

The Lebanese Lira is Gaining Value Against the Dollar Ahead of Aoun-Hariri Meeting
Souad Lazkani
The 961

OPINION & ANALYSIS


Lebanon’s Socioeconomic Implosion
Christophe Abi-Nassif
Middle East Institute

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

This Week In Lebanon: 3/19/2021

March 19, 2021
 General McKenzie Visits Lebanon 
 Discussion on European and US Sanctions on Political Leaders 
 Agreement to Give Lebanon Aid in US Dollars
General McKenzie Visits Lebanon
On Monday, Commander of the US Central Command General Kenneth F. McKenzie visited Lebanon. He met General Joseph Aoun, Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and other LAF senior representatives to reaffirm the importance of preserving Lebanon’s security and sovereignty and to reinforce the strong partnership between the US and the LAF. General McKenzie also made visits to a USAID-funded water pumping and solar power station and the 3rd Land Border Regiment. [US Embassy in Lebanon]
ANALYSIS
“US General McKenzie’s meeting with LAF Commander, General Joseph Aoun, was obviously timed to bolster support for the General following his remarkable speech last week. In that speech he frankly spelled out the hardship of his army and the ineffectiveness of the government to address the needs of the Lebanese people. And, in response to a demand by the President of Lebanon to clear the streets of protesters, General Aoun asserted that it was his job to protect the protesters as long as they were peaceful. With such dire conditions facing the LAF, the United States must step up immediately to provide an emergency grant to the LAF, with the help of Gulf and European partners, to alleviate the suffering of the soldiers and their families, and to provide the needed operational funds for the military.”
-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

Discussion on European and US Sanctions on Political Leaders
A French diplomat speaking on the condition of anonymity said that the US and Europe should increase pressure on Lebanon’s leaders to form a new government by means of sanctions if necessary. The sanctions suggested would be specifically on political leaders who obstruct any political progress. [Naharnet]
ANALYSIS
“The international community has finally come to the conclusion that sanctions on key Lebanese political leaders are needed for credible actions to adopt vital reforms. The upcoming meetings between President Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri to resolve their differences and agree on an empowered government of experts, will now take place under the pressure of sanctions. What happens in the coming weeks will either drive Lebanon into even greater desperation or start incremental changes that earn the support of the international community and eventually the trust of the Lebanese people.”
-ATFL Policy Director Jean AbiNader

Agreement to Give Lebanon Aid in US Dollars
A letter sent this week to Lebanon’s finance ministry from representatives of the EU, UN, and World Bank noted an agreement to hand out assistance in Lebanon in US dollars. It stressed the rollout of aid through the agreed-upon mechanisms to “ensure consistency and continuity of aid.” This letter follows last week’s approval by Lebanon’s parliament of a $246 million World Bank loan for a social safety net. [Reuters]
ANALYSIS
“Failing to enrich themselves from the $246 million in aid from the World Bank by manipulating the exchange rate and diverting its oversight provisions, Lebanon’s leaders have bought a bit of time for addressing the needs of the very poor in the country. But they are fooling no one. Many members of Parliament showed their venality by watering down the conditions of the assistance. However, in a sign of the times, the international community did not back down and this may shine a light on the way ahead.”
-ATFL Policy Director Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 03/18/21

DAILY NEWS


Lebanon’s Aoun Tells PM-Designate Hariri to Form Government or Go
Al Jazeera

Hariri to Aoun: Allow for Early Presidential Vote if You Can’t Sign Government Decrees
Naharnet

Fuel Rations Hit Lebanon Amid Mounting Anger Over the Political Stand-Off
Al Arabiya

Brawls in Shops as Lebanon’s Financial Meltdown Hits Supply of Food
Maha El Dahan, Ellen Francis
Reuters

OPINION & ANALYSIS


Lebanon Needs An Aid Paradigm Shift
Sahar Atrache
Al Jazeera

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 03/17/21

DAILY NEWS


‘We Are Hungry’: Lebanese Protest Worsening Economic Crisis
Zeina Karam
Associated Press

Lebanon PM Diab Says Most Subsidies Covered Until June
Reuters

Gulf to Impose Rare Sanctions on Lebanese Politicians
Naharnet

OPINION & ANALYSIS


Lebanon Needs An Aid Paradigm Shift
Sahar Atrache
Al Jazeera

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.