Lebanon Daily News Brief 03/16/21

DAILY NEWS


Lebanon to Reduce Subsidies as Cash Runs Out, Finance Chief Says
Dana Khraiche
Bloomberg

Hezbollah Goes to Moscow
Geopolitical Futures

United States Central Command Commander Visits Lebanon
US Embassy in Lebanon

Lebanese Camp Holds ‘No Future’ for Widows and Orphans of Syria’s War
France 24

OPINION & ANALYSIS


Lebanon Held Hostage as it Hurtles Towards Collapse
FT Editorial Board
Financial Times

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 03/15/21

DAILY NEWS

Lebanon’s Currency Plummets to an All-Time Low of 12,400 Pounds to US Dollar
Rawad Taha
Al Arabiya

Protests Around Lebanon as Local Currency Continues to Slide
Associated Press

Lebanon Approves $246 Million Safety Net, But Seeks Oversight Cuts
Timour Azhari
Reuters

Berri Mulls Mediating Government Solution as Ibrahim Suspends His Drive
Naharnet

OPINION & ANALYSIS


Lebanon Held Hostage as it Hurtles Towards Collapse
FT Editorial Board
Financial Times

Lebanon: A State in Collapse?
Al Jazeera

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

This Week In Lebanon: 3/13/2021

March 13, 2021
 Secretary Blinken Commits Continued US Support to LAF 
 Lebanon’s Security Forces Under Strain 
 Fuel for Energy Generation Running Out 
 US and French Officials Warn of Impending Collapse 
Secretary Blinken Commits Continued US Support to LAF
On Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated the direction of US-Lebanon relations under the Biden administration when he testified in front of the US House Committee of Foreign Affairs. He committed the United States’ continued support to the Lebanese army as well as to universities and refugee camps in Lebanon. [Al Arabiya]
ANALYSIS
“The new secretary of State, Tony Blinken, has quickly shown his understanding of Lebanon and the Biden Administration priorities in responses to the House Foreign Affairs Committee this week. When asked if he supported the Lebanese Armed Forces and the American-styled universities in Lebanon his answer was straightforward, “Yes.” He also conveyed his concern for the burden that Lebanon shoulders from housing the highest per capita number of refugees in the world. The future of the US-Lebanon relationship is off to a very good start with the Biden Administration!”
-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

Lebanon’s Security Forces Strained Under Economic Collapse
This week General Joseph Aoun of the Lebanese Armed Forces warned in a statement directed at political elites of the challenges Lebanon’s security forces are facing. He said like the Lebanese people, soldier are going hungry. Military and police salaries have been slashed at least six times over as the Lebanese pound continues to crash. Security sources warn of desertions. [Reuters]
ANALYSIS
“Lebanese Army commander Joseph Aoun gave a powerful speech in support of his economically strapped troops in which he criticized the ruling elite, “Do they want the army or not? Do you want the army to stay on its feet or not? … They don’t care.” In response to an earlier comment by the President of Lebanon demanding the army do its job to clear the streets of protesters, he said that as long as the protesters remain peaceful, he and his troops will side with them. He deserves the full support of the US for his courage and determination to save his country. The US should issue an immediate statement of support for General Aoun and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and provide emergency assistance to the troops in support of their humanitarian needs and   maintaining the army’s military preparedness.”
-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

Fuel For Energy Generation to Run Out Soon
Caretaker Energy Minister Raymond Ghajar announced that Lebanon will face complete darkness if a payment of 1,500 billion Lebanese pounds to import fuel isn’t made soon. He says all resources have been exhausted and in February warned that the Energy Ministry could not pay for fuel to generate electricity beyond March. MPs in the Strong Lebanon Bloc have proposed a law to give financial advice to buy fuel. [The 961]
ANALYSIS
“Do the lights ever go out in the homes of the economic and political elites – especially those who control the generator and fuel oil contracts? The Lebanese people deserve a power system that serves their needs and the business that serve them. The threat of total darkness may be an extreme statement but what about the impact on technology, education, manufacturing, and health services? Lebanon is teetering on an abyss of which a power sector is only the tipping point.”
-ATFL Policy Director Jean AbiNader

US and French Officials Warn of Impending Collapse
This week French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned that Lebanon is sliding toward total collapse during a news conference. US State Department spokesman Ned Price concurred and blamed ongoing crises on the inaction of Lebanon’s political leaders. [France 24]
ANALYSIS
“The US and France, members of the International Support Group, which includes the United Nations and the governments of China, Germany, Italy, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and the Arab League, have spoken. Lebanon’s leaders are failing their country. Actions to prevent a total collapse of the political and economic systems are clear, but nothing is happening because words do not seem to affect them. What are the next steps to convince the leadership that only concrete and verifiable reforms will save the country? Or could they care less…”
-ATFL Policy Director Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

This Week in Lebanon

March 6, 2021
Former US State Official Hopes for Maritime Talks
Aoun Asks Salameh About Currency Collapse
Syrian Pound Drops Following Lebanese Pound Collapse

Former US State Official Hopes for Continued Maritime Border Talks
In an interview on al-Hadath, former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker expressed his hope that the Biden administration would prioritize maritime negotiations between Lebanon and Israel. [Naharnet] Mediation efforts began last October and centered around an 860 square kilometer area of the Mediterranean Sea that both sides claim to be within their economic zones. [Associated Press]

ANALYSIS

“Former Assistant Secretary Schenker’s comments are timely and should be prioritized by the Biden administration in its US-Lebanon policy. Maritime border negotiations between Lebanon and Israel will not only open the door for international oil and gas exploration, but could build confidence between the parties and lead to further confidence building measures. It’s an achievable task, worthy of the time and effort by US diplomats, and one that could reap short and long term benefits.”
-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel


Aoun Asks Salameh for a Reason for Currency Collapse
On Wednesday a statement from President Aoun’s Twitter account announced that he asked Lebanon’s central bank governor, Riad Salameh, for an inquiry into the reasoning behind the collapse of the Lebanese pound, which hit a record low on Tuesday at 10,000 to the dollar. [Reuters]

ANALYSIS

“It’s ironic that President Aoun asked the Central Bank why the currency is worthless. Could it be that its irregular funding of the government deficits for the past 20+ years has anything to do with it? Or the inability of the Parliament to pass a capital controls law to prevent the outflow of money from Lebanon allowing banks to set up their own regimes that punish most depositors and favor the well-off? Or is it just another political charade to sustain the smoke and mirrors that pass for policy-making?”
-ATFL Policy Director Jean AbiNader


Syrian Pound Follows Behind Lebanese Pound Collapse
Following the Lebanese pound drop this week the Syrian pound also fell to a record low on the black market on Wednesday. The currency tumbled to close to 4,000 to the dollar and the last drop was over last summer when it hit 3,000 to the dollar over fears of US sanctions. [Reuters]

ANALYSIS

“In our continuing focus on all things Lebanese, we sometimes overlook the horrific conditions next door in Syria that have a serious impact on Lebanon including refugees, smuggling, violent repression of human rights, and continued interference in Lebanon’s political affairs. Lebanon lives in a very difficult neighborhood and can’t solve its long-term issues of sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity without regional approaches. Until then, it should repair its own house so that it can negotiate its future from a consensus on a unified national vision of what Lebanon should and will be.”
-ATFL Policy Director Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 03/12/21

DAILY NEWS


Blinken Pledges Continued US Support for Lebanese Army, Universities, Refugee Camps
Joseph Haboush
Al Arabiya

Hariri Receives US Ambassador
Naharnet

Lebanon’s Politicians Show No Sign of Saving Their Country, France Says
Reuters

Lebanon Wants to Start Drilling for Oil to Pressure Israel
Hussein Yassine
The 961

For Syrians, a Decade of Displacement With No End in Sight
Fay Abuelgasim
Associated Press

OPINION & ANALYSIS


Lebanon: A State in Collapse?
Al Jazeera

After the Blast
Rania Abouzeid
The Atlantic

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 03/11/21

DAILY NEWS


Lebanon’s Interior Minister Says Security Forces Reached ‘Rock Bottom’
Reuters

Lebanon Threatened with Total Darkness
The Daily Star

Lebanon Just Raised the Price of Bread Again
Hussein Yassine
The 961

Lebanon Facing Numerous Hurdles in COVID Battle
CNN

OPINION & ANALYSIS


Status Update on the Syrian Refugees in Lebanon
Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Status Update on the Syrian Refugees in Lebanon

Two recent stories reminded us that the status of the Syrian refugees in the Levant has gone largely underreported in media perspectives on challenges for the Biden Administration’s foreign policy in the Middle East. Dispersed primarily in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan, with another 6 million internally displaced in Syria, tens of thousands have emigrated out of the region, and the future of those left behind has become a chess piece in international politics.

This was made quite clear in the story about the meeting between Syrian Foreign Minister Faysal Mikdad and Lebanese Minister of Tourism and Social Affairs Ramzi Moucharafieh to discuss the refugees. In addition to pledging to work for the quick return of the refugees to Syria, both ministers called on international organizations not to create obstacles for the return of Syrians home. This was a not-so-veiled reference to existing standards that conditions of safety and dignity must be in place before any repatriation process. These pre-conditions for return have been stymied by Russia which uses its votes in the UN Security Council to dismiss efforts to provide humanitarian relief and assist the refugee resettlement process.

The hypocrisy of the Assad regime in this regard is evident in its efforts to replace refugees by transplanting communities, transferring housing vacated by the refugees to its supporters, and passing laws that create obstacles to the return of vacated property, dismissing obligations to serve in the military, and similar hurdles. Meanwhile, Mikdad insisted that Syria welcomes the return of all displaced Syrians to their homeland. The government, he said, will take all measures necessary to guarantee their safe return and provide them with good living conditions. None of this has been validated by the more than 10,000 refugees from Lebanon who have returned over the past two years.

The validation of the desperate lives of the Syrian refugees has been recorded a recently released study by Save the Children called “Anywhere but Syria.” The study was conducted in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and the Netherlands, and the statistics from Lebanon are quite startling. According to the United Nations, the number of Syrian refugees in Lebanon living below the poverty line increased from 55 percent in 2019 to 89 percent in 2020. In a commentary on the report, Relief Web International noted that “The protracted hosting of large refugee populations has placed additional strains on a middle-income country like Lebanon with ongoing political turmoil, unstable economic situation, and a fragmented, highly privatized, and under-resourced health care system.”

“The compilers of the report spoke to 1,900 displaced Syrian children in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, the Netherlands, and opposition-held areas of Syria. 86% of them said that they would not return to Syria and cannot imagine a future there, while a third said that they would rather live in another country. Only 29% of the children in Lebanon, 3% in Turkey, and 9% in Jordan and the Netherlands said that they would return to Syria.” Among the key reasons cited is the desire for education, freedom of expression, and having a say in their lives. “Lebanon, especially, was said to be one of the most difficult of the host countries, as it is gripped by an economic crisis and political instability.”

Other results are that some 79% of children said that after two years, they expect to find themselves somewhere other than Syria. Just 42% of internally displaced Syrian children said that they thought they would be able to realize their wish, significantly less than those in any other country.

If their dreams are realized, Assad will have achieved his goal of remaking Syria into a safe haven for himself, his community, and his allies, not to mention the Russians and Iranians.

Dr. Nana Ndeda, who is the policy advocacy and communications director for Save the Children’s Lebanon office told Arab News: “Lebanon presents a distinct context for Syrian refugees. We are now in a state of affairs where we are extremely worried about the plight of refugees in the midst of an entire population that is going down a steep decline in access to basic services or increased fragility.”

She mentioned that due to the severe economic crisis, there are increased incidents of violence and shortages of food, medicine, and other basics. “This makes the condition for refugees even worse. In the last couple of weeks, the situation has deteriorated rapidly, with increasing levels of poverty.” Ndeda added: “Refugees in Lebanon are now twice as poor as they were a year ago. The coronavirus disease pandemic has not made it any easier. There has been more than a year’s disruption in education services, which is leading to an increase of protection challenges, such as child marriage, other abuse, and increasing child labor.”

After 10 years of conflict in Syria, it is sobering to consider the prospects for the lost generation of youth and their families who have been living in camps outside and inside Syria. Deprived of their homes, communities, and essential services, the refugees can only dream of their futures, one without violence, in their own homes, investing in building new lives.

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 03/10/21

DAILY NEWS


Burning Tires: Lebanon’s Protesters Send Dark, Angry Message
Sarah El Deeb
Associated Press

Lebanese Army Starts Clearing Roadblocks After Week of Protests
Reuters

Hariri Back in Beirut, Lavrov Supports Formation of ‘Mission-Driven’ Government
Naharnet

Lebanon Crackdown on Black Market Money-Changers Fails to Stem Dollar Crisis
Najia Houssari
Arab News

OPINION & ANALYSIS


The Commander of Lebanon’s Armed Forces Made an Important Speech on the Country’s Economic Crisis
Aram Nerguizian
Carnegie Middle East Center

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 03/09/21

DAILY NEWS


Lebanon’s Army Chief Warns Economic Crisis is Hurting Troops
Bassem Mroue
Associated Press

Protests, Roadblock Persist in Lebanon Despite President’s Call
Reuters

Lebanese Pound Still Dropping as Authorities Crackdown on Currency Manipulators
Souad Lazkani
The 961

OPINION & ANALYSIS


The Commander of Lebanon’s Armed Forces Made an Important Speech on the Country’s Economic Crisis
Aram Nerguizian
Carnegie Middle East Center

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 03/08/21

DAILY NEWS


Lebanon’s Deadlock Fuels Seventh Day of Street Protests
Reuters

Army Chief to Make ‘Vital’ Stance Monday
Naharnet

Aoun Calls on Army to Prevent Road Blocks
The Daily Star

Israel Just Revealed Map of Alleged Hezbollah “Targets” in Lebanon
Rim Zrein
The 961

OPINION & ANALYSIS


An Unequal Present and Future in a COVID-19 World: The Pandemic’s Impact on Refugee Women in Lebanon
Dalal Yassine
Middle East Institute

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.