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Month: October 2021

This Week In Lebanon: 10/31/2021

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October 31, 2021
Yemen Comments Put Fresh Strain on Lebanon’s Gulf Ties
President Putin Asks Israeli PM Bennet for Help
Greed and Deadly Medicine Shortages in Lebanon

Yemen Comments Put Fresh Strain on Lebanon’s Gulf Ties
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates summoned Lebanese ambassadors on Wednesday to protest comments made by Lebanon’s information minister before he took office that were critical of the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen. The comments by George Kordahi in an interview he said was recorded on August 5 have, since it began circulating on social media on Tuesday, further strained Lebanon’s already difficult ties with Gulf Arab states. [Reuters]

RESPONSE

“This is just what Lebanon doesn’t need right now, more fallout with the Gulf countries, at a time when the US is trying to coordinate support for reform in Lebanon with them. The Information Minister seems to care more about his personal views than the international effort to bring countries together in support of one of the worst economic disasters of the past three 150 years. Prime Minister Miqati denounced Minister Kordahi’s comments. The rest of the government should follow suit.”

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

President Putin Asks Israeli PM Bennett for Help Easing US Syria Sanctions
Axios recenlty reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin asked Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett for help urging the United States to ease some of its Caesar Act sanctions on Syria so that Russian companies can join reconstruction efforts in the country. Israeli officials say Russia argues US sanctions deter foreign companies from taking part in reconstruction, therefore the door is open for Iranian companies that are already under US sanctions to be awarded major projects in Syria. [Axios]

RESPONSE

“The intertwining though often conflicting interests among players in the Middle East is dizzying. Russia wants Israel’s help with lifting US sanctions on Syria. Despite the fact that many Israelis are of Russian heritage, Syria is nothing if not a malign actor towards Israel. This illustrates the degree to which Russia perceives that Israel greatly influences US policy in the region. Why help? So that Russian companies can have contracts in Syria without fear of Caesar Act sanctions, and, by the way, prevent Iran from expanding its interests in Syria. Will Turkey be the next to ask? This is another illustration of the need for a region-wide US strategy that respects our bilateral interests.”

-ATFL Policy Director Jean AbiNader

Tamara Qiblawi: How Greed Fueled Lebanon’s Deadly Milk and Medicine Shortage
Tamara Qiblawi recently wrote for CNN on Lebanon’s food and medicine shortage crisis. Qiblawi details how the country’s financial crisis was fueled by greed of the elite, adding that ordinary people are paying the price for it. She writes, “The country’s economic depression has been driven by a rapid depletion of public finances, exacerbated by what the World Bank says was a deliberate mismanagement of the crisis on the part of the ruling elite.” [CNN]

RESPONSE

“Even during the civil war of 1975-1990, the Lebanese people did not experience the kind of shortages there are today. Blame it on subsidies, scarcity, or currency fluctuations, whatever. The reality is that the solution to the civil war of making warlords into ministers only deepened and hardened the corruption that became endemic during the Syrian occupation. How can the common people survive when their leaders are complicit in enabling a system that deprives their own people of essential goods and services? Will we ever know a Lebanon for the Lebanese?”

-ATFL Policy Director Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 10/29/2021

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DAILY NEWS

US Imposes Sanctions on Two Lebanese Businessmen and an MP
Yesterday the US Treasury imposed sanctions on two Lebanese businessmen and a member of Parliament. The sanctions are based on contribution to the “break down of good governance and rule of law in Lebanon” under Executive Order 13441. Director of the Office of Foreign Assets Control Andrea Gacki said, “Now is the time to implement necessary economic reforms and put an end to the corrupt practices eroding Lebanon’s foundations.” She added that US Treasury “will not hesitate to use its tools to address impunity in Lebanon.” [Department of Treasury]

Former Minister Sues Government over Beirut Port Investigation
Former Minister of Interior and Municipalities Nouhad al-Machnouk sued the government this week over a claim that Judge Tarek Bitar’s Beirut Port probe is violating the constitution by investigating him. The lawsuit was filed just a few days before al-Machnouk’s scheduled questioning today. It means that the investigation into the former minister will have to be paused until a decision on the lawsuit is made. [The 961]

Lebanon Requests Satellite Images from Russia Over Beirut Blast
President Michel Aoun said today that he has asked Russian Ambassador Alexander Rudakov for satellite images from last year’s explosion at the Beirut Port to help with Judge Tarek Bitar’s investigation. [Reuters]

Qatar Announces Halt of Vegetable Imports from Lebanon
This week Qatar announced a ban on several vegetable imports from Lebanon after reports of high levels of pesticides and E.coli were found in samples. The ban follows Saudi Arabia’s indefinite ban issued earlier this year on fruits and vegetables from Lebanon over smugglers use of the imports to bring drugs into the Kingdom. Qatar’s recent decision adds to Lebanese farmers’ difficulties this year. [The 961]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Lebanese Education Sector in Danger of Generational Damage
Jean AbiNader and James McLellan

AbiNader and McLellan write, “The ongoing crises in Lebanon have severely affected its already vulnerable education system. Two immediate results are diminished learning acquisition among students and the shift in K-12 schooling from the private to the public sector. For years, the public education sector has been under-resourced and subject to politics, leading the majority of parents to enroll their children in private schools. The economic collapse of the country has put private education out of reach and those students are crowding into a weakened public system that is overwhelmed, with fewer resources, and poorly regarded…Where to go from here demands a multilayered and comprehensive strategy. Lebanon must attract teachers back from emigration into the education sector and implement a long-term plan to supply adequate financing and other resources for education. Lebanon’s leaders must decide if they will commit to a large-scale generational investment in a generation that is being ill-equipped for the future.”

Read more here

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanese Education Sector in Danger of Generational Damage

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The ongoing crises in Lebanon have severely affected its already vulnerable education system.

Two immediate results are diminished learning acquisition among students and the shift in K-12 schooling from the private to the public sector. For years, the public education sector has been under-resourced and subject to politics, leading the majority of parents to enroll their children in private schools.

The economic collapse of the country has put private education out of reach and those students are crowding into a weakened public system that is overwhelmed, with fewer resources, and poorly regarded.

Before the current crises, 60% of all students attended private schools, as demonstrated in a recent presentation by Dr. Ghina Al-Badawi Hafez, the Director General of Education at the Al Makassed Association of Beirut. The financial burden of childhood education in Lebanon has largely fallen onto parents, who spend some $1.5 billion per year, exceeding the government’s budget of $1.2 billion.

The recent migration of students from private to public schools creates new facts on the ground which reflect how the economic crisis has transformed the current outlook for families of school-aged children.

In their September report “Education Rapid Needs Assessment on Lebanon,” the Italian NGO Associazione Volontari per il Servizio Internazionale (AVSI) examined challenges of educational access and retention in school-aged Lebanese and refugee children in Mount Lebanon, Bekaa, Nabatiyeh, and the South.

Among the sampled schools of the NGO study, 92% saw a significant influx of students (mostly Lebanese) from private or semi-private schools between academic year 2019-2020 and 2020-2021. The study also noted that the pupil to teacher ratio rose from 15 to 17 students. As a result, 35% of the schools interviewed did not have the capacity to welcome new students and will have to refuse additional intakes.

Dr. Al-Badawi Hafez’s presentation detailed just how costly education has become for parents. The cost of school fees increased from 4.8 million LBP in 2019-2020 to 9.3 million; the average cost of transportation soared almost four-times over, from 1.2 million LBP to 4 million; the cost of school uniforms rose from 150,000 LBP to 600,000; books alone have risen five-fold, reaching prices of 2-3 million LBP; generator fees spiked from an average cost of 500,000 LBP to 2 million; and, as of September, there was an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, which have of course brought challenges to parents everywhere.

Moreover, due to the Lebanese Lira losing more than 90% of its value since 2019, teacher salaries, tuition rates, and costs of educational resources have all become obstacles to teachers, parents, and students alike.

In a July 2021 article published in Reuters, “Rodolphe Abboud, head of the syndicate for private school teachers, said every school has lost between ten to 40 teachers so far, with some staying at home because they can no longer afford childcare.” The same article highlights select perspectives from former Lebanese educators who have had to restart their life from scratch as middle-aged emigrants.

This brain drain is taking a huge toll on the future generations who are currently facing a mismatch between skills and labor market needs. Resettlement comes with challenges of its own, even for those with the means to leave their trying circumstances in Lebanon.

Dr. Al-Badawi Hafez also cites assessment results of learning progress among students in the education sector indicating that the overwhelming majority of lower-scoring schools are public, which reflects the larger educational inequality between public and private schools – a gap that is especially noticeable with disadvantaged schools. The Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) found that only 1% of those students performed well in reading, which is significantly lower than the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) global average of 9%.

The COVID-19 pandemic demanded major virtual accommodations from teachers, parents, and students all around the world. In Lebanon, the pandemic starkly illuminated the pre-existing inequities of access to electricity across the country, which has only become more dire amid the recent lifting of fuel subsidies. For many, this has meant the absence of students from the classroom altogether. Between January of 2020 and February of 2021 alone, schools in Lebanon were closed for 154 total days, accounting for 75% of the entire school year.

Add to this, the traumatic impact of the 2020 Port of Beirut explosion, which directly inflicted damage to buildings serving more than 55,000 students, which compounded the pre-existing needs from the construction, expansion, and rehabilitation of school facilities to the provisions of educational equipment and furnishings.

Where to go from here demands a multilayered and comprehensive strategy. Lebanon must attract teachers back from emigration into the education sector and implement a long-term plan to supply adequate financing and other resources for education. Lebanon’s leaders must decide if they will commit to a large-scale generational investment in a generation that is being ill-equipped for the future.

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 10/28/2021

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DAILY NEWS

Parliament Approves Early Elections
Today Lebanon’s parliament approved early elections to be held on March 27, 2022. The parliament voted on the early election date earlier this month, but the electoral amendments were sent back by President Michel Aoun for reconsideration. Elections were originally scheduled for May 8. Parliament also endorsed for a second time the cancelation of six additional seats assigned to Lebanese expatriate voters which prompted a walk out by leader of the Free Patriotic Movement Gebran Bassil. Canceling the six extra seats would allow Lebanese expatriates to cast their vote within the 128 seats. [National]

2016 IMF Report Reveals BDL’s $4.7 Billion Hole
A 2016 International Monetary Fund report seen by Reuters showed that Lebanon’s central bank had a $4.7 billion hole in its reserves at the end of 2015, which was not disclosed to the public. The report detailed that the Banque Du Liban had $36.5 billion in gross reserves, but that the “reserves net of the commercial banks’ claims on BDL and gold were negative $4.7 billion in December 2015.” [Reuters]

Saudi Arabia and UAE Summon Lebanon’s Ambassadors Over Minister’s Comments
Earlier this week an August 5th interview of Lebanon’s Information Minister George Kordahi surfaced in which the minister, who was not yet appointed at the time of the interview, criticized Saudi Arabia’s efforts in Yemen. He called the war futile and said Yemen had been subjected to foreign aggression while Iran-backed Houthis defend themselves. Yesterday Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates summoned Lebanese ambassadors in protest over the comments. [Reuters]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Financial Times
Another Lebanon: A Journey Back in Time
Gilles Khoury

Khoury writes, “As the years passed, and as I witnessed my country constantly living on the edge of chaos and peril, I started to worry about these stories dying. I felt increasingly invested in the mission of watching over these tales. That is why I became a journalist. Many of my Lebanese contemporaries experience this very curious nostalgia, the one of longing for a time they never knew. Last year, on 4 August, an enormous explosion shattered the city of Beirut. An economic crisis, deliberately provoked by a ruthless ruling class, had already torn up the social fabric of the country. Lebanon is changing; it is a country painfully giving birth to another, one we still can’t define. At such turning points in history, what happens to our memories? Where are those stories safe?”

Read more here

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 10/27/2021

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DAILY NEWS

Lebanese Forces Leader Samir Geagea Skips Military Summons
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea was scheduled to give his testimony this morning on the recent clashes in Beirut after being summoned by Army Intelligence last week. [Reuters] However Geagea did not show up. Lebanese Forces supporters protested the summon and blocked roads and highways, including closing off roads that lead to Geagea’s residence. Geagea’s lawyers filed a complaint yesterday that the summons was illegal. [Al Jazeera]

Former PM Diab Sues Over Beirut Blast Investigation
Former Prime Minister Hassan Diab filed a complaint today against the Lebanese state regarding his prosecution over the Beirut blast by Judge Tarek Bitar. Diab has skipped at least two interrogation sessions already, and the legal complaint he filed today comes one day before another rescheduled interrogation. Once Bitar is officially notified of the of the suit, he will have to pause his prosecution of Diab but will be able to continue the prosecution of others. [Reuters]

UN Special Rapporteur on Poverty to Visit Lebanon
The UN Human Rights Council’s Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights will be visiting Lebanon for the second time. Acknowledging the roll Lebanon’s multiple crises have played in nearly doubling poverty rates in the last two years, Olivier De Schutter said “I will be looking closely at how the government is addressing the impact on people’s lives.” De Schutter will travel to Beirut, Tripoli, rural communities in Akkar, and the Bekaa Valley. [Naharnet]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Is It Even Possible to Segment the Lebanon/Syria Files?
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, “Why are Iranian shipments [of fuel] needed since US partners in the Gulf have more than enough export capacity to take care of Lebanon’s needs? Our diplomatic efforts with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait should have taken precedence over a pipeline deal that raises sanctions issues and won’t be viable until the end of the year. So what happened, and why isn’t Lebanon supported by its fellow Arabs to counter Iran’s ploy to give Hezbollah bragging rights? This is just another indicator that without a regional strategy and country-specific game plans, the understaffed and under-resourced State Department will not be able to keep up with the twists and turns affecting our interests.”

Read more here

Financial Times
Another Lebanon: A Journey Back in Time
Gilles Khoury

Khoury writes, “As the years passed, and as I witnessed my country constantly living on the edge of chaos and peril, I started to worry about these stories dying. I felt increasingly invested in the mission of watching over these tales. That is why I became a journalist. Many of my Lebanese contemporaries experience this very curious nostalgia, the one of longing for a time they never knew. Last year, on 4 August, an enormous explosion shattered the city of Beirut. An economic crisis, deliberately provoked by a ruthless ruling class, had already torn up the social fabric of the country. Lebanon is changing; it is a country painfully giving birth to another, one we still can’t define. At such turning points in history, what happens to our memories? Where are those stories safe?”

Read more here

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 10/26/2021

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DAILY NEWS

PM Miqati Hopes Cabinet Meetings will Resume Soon
Prime Minister Najib Miqati expressed hope today that cabinet meetings would resume soon. The meetings have been on pause following this month’s violent clashes in Beirut over Judge Tarek Bitar’s port investigation. [Reuters] Since then, Lebanon’s government has remained paralyzed while Hezbollah and Amal officials call for Bitar’s removal. [France 24]

President Aoun Urges IMF Negotiations
Today President Michel Aoun urged the resumption of cabinet sessions under Prime Minister Miqati’s government in order to move ahead with IMF negotiations and come to a funding agreement. Aoun has supported the continuation of the Beirut Port investigation and rejected any political interference in the judiciary. [Al Arabiya] He added that despite recurring disruptions, “there is no going back to civil war in Lebanon.” [Naharnet]

President Aoun Sends Electoral Amendment Back
Last week Lebanon’s parliament voted to hold elections on March 27, but at the end of the week President Michel Aoun sent the amendment on election rules back to parliament for reconsideration. Aoun said in a statement, “shortening the constitutional deadline that comes ahead of the elections exposes the electoral process to the voters absence due to climate and logistical reasons.” [Al Arabiya]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Is It Even Possible to Segment the Lebanon/Syria Files?
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, “Why are Iranian shipments [of fuel] needed since US partners in the Gulf have more than enough export capacity to take care of Lebanon’s needs? Our diplomatic efforts with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait should have taken precedence over a pipeline deal that raises sanctions issues and won’t be viable until the end of the year. So what happened, and why isn’t Lebanon supported by its fellow Arabs to counter Iran’s ploy to give Hezbollah bragging rights? This is just another indicator that without a regional strategy and country-specific game plans, the understaffed and under-resourced State Department will not be able to keep up with the twists and turns affecting our interests.”

Read more here

AP News
The Judge Leading Beirut Blast Probe: Discreet and Defiant
Sarah El Deeb and Bassem Mroue

Deeb and Mroue write, “At first, suspected officials took cover behind parliamentary or professional immunity, declining to appear before him. They accused him of singling out some officials and not others, in an apparent attempt to stoke sectarian grudges in a country divided along sectarian lines. Then they sued him and tried to discredit him, saying he showed bias and was allied with foreign powers. Hatem Madi, a veteran judge and prosecutor, said he never before witnessed such a standoff between the political class and the judiciary. The new government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati is already in a deadlock over how to respond to calls for removal of Bitar. Meanwhile, Bitar has not backed down, reissuing his summonses to senior officials. He now moves around with guards. The judge has been open to visitors and questions about the legal process, but he is careful not to divulge his next moves, the legal expert said.”

Read more here

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 10/25/2021

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DAILY NEWS

Sixty-Eight People Charged over Beirut Clashes
Today 68 people were charged over the deadly clashes in Beirut that killed seven people and left dozens wounded earlier this month. Judge Fadi Akiki issued the charges through the military court with crimes including murder, attempted murder, inciting sectarian strife, unlicensed weapons, and sabotage. [AP] Head of the Lebanese Forces party Samir Geagea has also been summoned for a hearing by Army Intelligence over the clashes. Geagea has denied allegations that the gunmen from the shootings are from the Lebanese Forces. [Reuters]

Higher Judicial Council Urges Bitar to Finalize Investigation
The Higher Judicial Council summoned Judge Tarek Bitar to review the Beirut Port blast investigation process resulting in a meeting with Bitar today. In a statement, the Council said that during the discussion it urged Bitar to complete the investigation, stressing that he should “finalize the investigation as soon as possible according to legal norms, in order to fulfill justice and hold perpetrators responsible.” [Naharnet]

Lebanon Says Formal IMF Negotiations to Start in November
On Friday Lebanon’s Economy Minister Amin Salam said that the government is planning to make progress in formal negotiations with the IMF before the end of the year or early next year. He said they are not expecting funds to be distributed before March elections. Yesterday, Lebanon’s foreign minister added that formal negotiations will likely start in November. [Reuters]

President Aoun Sends Electoral Amendment Back
Last week Lebanon’s parliament voted to hold elections on March 27, but at the end of the week President Michel Aoun sent the amendment on election rules back to parliament for reconsideration. Aoun said in a statement, “shortening the constitutional deadline that comes ahead of the elections exposes the electoral process to the voters absence due to climate and logistical reasons.” [Al Arabiya]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Is It Even Possible to Segment the Lebanon/Syria Files?
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, “Why are Iranian shipments [of fuel] needed since US partners in the Gulf have more than enough export capacity to take care of Lebanon’s needs? Our diplomatic efforts with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait should have taken precedence over a pipeline deal that raises sanctions issues and won’t be viable until the end of the year. So what happened, and why isn’t Lebanon supported by its fellow Arabs to counter Iran’s ploy to give Hezbollah bragging rights? This is just another indicator that without a regional strategy and country-specific game plans, the understaffed and under-resourced State Department will not be able to keep up with the twists and turns affecting our interests.”

Read more here

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Is It Even Possible to Segment the Lebanon/Syria Files?

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Lebanon’s supporters in the US continue to express concern that, since the 1983 Marine barracks bombing, US policy towards Lebanon has also been hyphenated which treats it as a function of US interests vis-à-vis Israel, Syria and/or Iran, or others. While Lebanon is not a powerful state, they argue, it is a consistent supporter of US interests; is a bellwether for indications of regional responses to American initiatives; has a well-educated and responsive middle class that respects democratic values; and is an integral part of our regional counterterrorism strategy.

Americans who oppose any special relationship point out that Lebanon has long been influenced by external actors who, over time, have their own media platforms, infiltrate and support political parties, and do not hesitate to employ armed clashes through their proxies. By abetting their capacity to feed off a weak state, these outside forces ensure the survival of their allies despite their failure to heal the current crises which have led to significant migration and a deterioration of the private educational and health services that were a Lebanese hallmark. Another liability is that Lebanon is a significant player in global drug trafficking and its borders are porous and have become an economic, political, and security liability.

The intertwining of Lebanon and its neighbors is recently evident in US efforts to both strengthen Lebanon’s capacity to meet basic fuel and power needs, and initiate good faith negotiations on its southern maritime boundaries. Less controversial is the recent visit by Amos Hochstein, the State Department’s Senior Advisor for Energy Security. He met with President Michel Aoun and other leaders to encourage the government to restart trilateral negotiations regarding the maritime borders.

According to a Reuters article, “Hochstein said resolving the border issue would help alleviate Lebanon’s power shortage by allowing it to develop its offshore gas resources.” As importantly, the bulk of the investments for exploration and exploitation would be of benefit in the economically disadvantaged areas of south Lebanon where there are large concentrations of Shia.

The power crisis in Lebanon, which would not be affected by any Lebanese discoveries for perhaps a decade, raises regional complications because Egypt, in the near term, will supply Lebanon with natural gas pumped through Jordan, transiting Syria into Lebanon. It was feared that this could bring into play Caesar Act sanctions designed to inhibit Syria’s outside business dealings. Aware that two US allies are parties to this deal to benefit a third, the American government had to determine if sanctions would be applied.

The Reuters article went on to say, “Asked about a deal to export Egyptian gas through a pipeline going through Jordan and Syria to Lebanon, Hochstein said the United States had been working to make that happen and US sanctions against Syria would not have to be waived to make the deal go through as they likely don’t apply in this case.” This was later confirmed by Lebanese Energy Minister Walid Fayad who told Reuters that Hochstein had “assured him that participants in the project to supply Lebanon with Egyptian gas will be shielded from the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Law.”

This arrangement, put together by Jordan and Egypt as part of their attempts to gradually bring about some degree of separation between Iran and Syria, serves the US interest also in reducing opportunities for Iran to brighten its image with its diesel fuel being shipped to Syria and then trucked into Lebanon by Hezbollah despite having no authority to do so.

The deal has raised the ire of some members of Congress who see any sanctions exemptions for Syria as undercutting US pressure on the regime. To the contrary, Israel and the US indicated during a recent visit of Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid that the US would not support efforts to normalize ties with Damascus, according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, “until there is irreversible progress toward a political solution.”

Which leads to the question as to why the Iranian shipments are even needed since US partners in the Gulf have more than enough export capacity to take care of Lebanon’s needs? Our diplomatic efforts with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait should have taken precedence over a pipeline deal that raises sanctions issues and won’t be viable until the end of the year. So what happened, and why isn’t Lebanon supported by its fellow Arabs to counter Iran’s ploy to give Hezbollah bragging rights?

This is just another indicator that without a regional strategy and country-specific game plans, the understaffed and under-resourced State Department will not be able to keep up with the twists and turns affecting our interests.

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon.

This Week In Lebanon: 10/24/2021

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October 24, 2021
Prospective Lebanon Gas Supplies via Syria Exempt from Sanctions
Parliament Approves March 27 Elections, Aoun Sends It Back
New Scientific Studies on Ammonium Nitrate from Port Blast

US Reassures Lebanon Gas Supplies Through Syria Shielded From Caesar Law
Participants in the project to supply Lebanon with Egyptian gas will be shielded from the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Law, Lebanon’s state news agency (NNA) reported, citing a statement by the ministry. [Reuters] Senior Advisor for Global Energy Security Amos Hochstein said, “We have a sanctions regime against Syria. It is not against Lebanon. It has nothing to do with Lebanon. It is entirely to do with Syria.” [U.S. Embassy in Lebanon]

RESPONSE

“In reassuring Lebanon’s energy minister that shipping gas to Lebanon through Syria would be free from Caesar act sanctions, it is vitally important for the US to make clear its policy with regard to Syria, including its intention on whether it plans to normalize relations with the Assad regime and how that affects a US-Lebanon policy. The Lebanese people are suffering due to the country’s current energy crisis. It is encouraging that the US was able to mobilize regional allies Egypt and Jordan to help meet the needs of the Lebanese people and partially address this crisis. Controversially, although the pipeline flows through Syria, the US has made clear that all participants in the project will be waived from the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Law. As some Arab states have begun making overtures to the Assad regime, the US should reassert that this waiver is one that is focused on assistance to the Lebanese people in the midst of a humanitarian crisis and reassert that it does not plan to normalize relations with the Assad regime.”

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

Parliament Approves March 27 Elections Date, President Aoun Sends Amendments Back
Lebanese President Michel Aoun on Friday sent a law amending legislative election rules back to parliament for reconsideration, the presidency said in a statement. [Reuters] Parliament on Tuesday voted to approve a bill bringing forward the elections date from May to March 27, as it amended the electoral law to cancel the six expat seats as well as megacenters and the magnetic voting card. Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil meanwhile objected to the change of the elections date and the cancellation of expat seats and megacenters. [Naharnet] “Shortening the constitutional deadline that comes ahead of the elections exposes the electoral process to the voters’ absence due to climate and logistical reasons,” Aoun added. [Reuters]

RESPONSE

“Parliament’s actions both empower and disempower expatriate voting. Registrations are rapidly increasing worldwide as the more than 12 million overseas Lebanese are deeply motivated to bring Lebanon back from the brink – 300,000 of whom have left since the thawra of October 2019. The veto on the megacenters, which would have provided polls at central locations in Lebanon rather than voters having to return to their ancestral village, was voted down on a legal technicality. The election arouses deep feelings among both proponents and skeptics who claim that the results will either facilitate necessary leadership changes or won’t make any difference. Electioneering in the coming months will indicate if the status quo parties sense a threat from those still chanting killon ya’neh killon, ‘all of them means all of them’, and if the parties will try their best to marginalize them.”

-ATFL Policy Director Jean AbiNader

New Scientific Studies Suggest Ammonium Nitrate of Beirut Blast Was Much Less Than Claimed
A study published in Shock Waves, a physical science journal specialized in shock and detonation phenomena, showed that the explosion was the equivalent of 200 tonnes of TNT, not 1,000+, which means the exploded quantity involved ‘only’ 520 tonnes of ammonium nitrate and not 2,750 tonnes. [The961] The FBI’s October 7, 2020 report estimates that around 552 tonnes of ammonium nitrate exploded that day, much less than the 2,754 tonnes that arrived on a Russian-leased cargo ship in 2013. [Reuters] If only one-fifth of the shipment exploded, where did the rest go? [The961]

RESPONSE

“Since the FBI concluded its partial investigation in October 2020 with the finding that barely 20% of the original shipment of ammonium nitrate exploded, little effort has been exerted to augment these findings until these two recent analyses were completed and released. The question of course is, ‘What happened to the rest of the shipment?’ This has led to many conspiracy theories and clues, many of which involve smuggling from the port to the Assad regime for use in barrel bombs. If there is truth to these speculations, a veritable crime against humanity is on the shoulders of those implicated in turning a blind eye to the storage issue.”

-ATFL Policy Director Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 10/22/2021

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DAILY NEWS

US Mediator Says Next Round of Maritime Talks Should Be Quicker
Yesterday US mediator Amos Hochstein said from Beirut that maritime border talks between Lebanon and Israel should be a shorter process once started again. “I think in these kinds of efforts what we’ve learned is that if you take a lot of time, it doesn’t happen,” he added. When asked about the Arab Gas Pipeline project to flow gas from Egypt through Jordan and Syria to Lebanon, Hochstein said “this kind of transaction” will not receive sanctions from the US and that the US has informed Egypt that it can move ahead. [Reuters]

Geagea Called in For Statement Over Beirut Clashes
Following last week’s deadly clashes starting at Tayyouneh roundabout, Lebanon’s military court summoned Samir Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces, to hear his testimony. [Naharnet] Yesterday Geagea denied that the Lebanese Forces has fighters amid Hezbollah accusations that the group has a militia and is seeking civil war. [Reuters]

Ambassador Shea Inaugurates Pop Up Spaces in Saida
US Ambassador Dorothy Shea inaugurated a Pop-Up Spaces program in Saida today. The program lasts one year and will focuse on empowering youth and young professionals in South Lebanon, North Lebanon and the Bekaa. [US Embassy in Lebanon]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

The National Interest
In Beirut Blast Investigation, Lebanon’s Judiciary is Under Siege
Adnan Nasser

Nasser writes, “In Lebanon, getting to the truth is the fastest way to put yourself in danger, especially when showing the political elite that they are not above the law. That is exactly what Judge Tarik Bitar is doing by fighting for the victims of the August 2020 blast in Beirut’s port that left 200 people dead. His requests to call politicians to answer questions on the details of that horrific day are rattling some political parties to the point that it has led to violence…Lebanon’s judiciary needs full solidarity from its people, the international community, and Lebanese leaders who want to save the country.”

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Washington Post
Why Can’t Lebanon’s Leaders Fix Its Economic Crisis?
Adeel Malik and Jamal Ibrahim Haidar

Malik and Haidar write, “With the escalating economic crisis reducing opportunities for political players to distribute wealth, oligarchs have had to seek new funding sources. Support from foreign countries comes in handy. So do leaders’ abilities to extract regulatory fees from the country’s private sector. A handful of politically connected firms have historically captured most market share in gas, pharmaceutical and other import sectors in Lebanon, thereby limiting competition, private-sector development, job creation and economic growth.”

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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.