Lebanon Daily News Brief 12/23/2021

DAILY NEWS

Port of Beirut Investigation Suspended for Fourth Time
On Thursday, Judge Tarek Bitar was informed of a lawsuit submitted by lawmakers Ghazi Zeaiter and Ali Hassan Khalil – both members of the Amal Movement – which forced him to pause the probe until a ruling is issued. Several weeks earlier, Bitar called for the Khalil’s arrest. According to Agence France Presse, “the lawsuits against Bitar will inevitably delay the presentation of his findings which were previously expected by the year’s end, according to a judicial source.” [France 24]

Private Hospital Syndicate Warns of Looming Health Catastrophe, Higher Defense Council Extends General Mobilization
The Following a steep rise in COVID-19 infections on top of a limited capacity across hospitals in Lebanon, the syndicate of Private Hospital Owners issued a statement Wednesday warning that a “health catastrophe” is looming over the coming days. [L’Orient Today] The Higher Defense Council decided to continue existing measures against the spread of the virus, such as  instituting a curfew for the unvaccinated over the holiday season, making full vaccination mandatory for all public, education, health, and tourism sector employees by January 10, and extending the winter vacation for school and university students from Dec. 16 to Jan. 10. [L’Orient Today]

State Department, Embassy in Lebanon Say Detained US Citizen in Turkey Not Diplomat
“We are aware of the detention of a U.S. citizen in Turkey. The individual is not a U.S. diplomat. We are providing appropriate consular services,” a State Department official said. Istanbul police identified the person as “D.J.K.”, working at the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, and arrested him  last month for selling his passport to a Syrian trying en route to Germany. [Reuters]

Energy Minister: World Bank Financing for Energy Plan is ‘Progressing’
According to L’Orient Today, Energy Minister Walid Fayad and Prime Minister Najib Miqati met on Wednesday concerning the overland energy plan via Syria and, “discussed financing conditions set by the World Bank, ‘most of which are reform conditions related to the good administrative and financial continuity of Electricity of Lebanon, with the existence of a long-term plan for the sector, provided that it is implemented within the first months of the beginning of the year,’ Fayad said.” [L’Orient Today]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Washington Awash With Middle East Policy Scenarios
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, The Baghdad Conference brought together major regional players, including Iran, to discuss common economic development opportunities and needs. The US did not participate, but agreements and accommodations emerged from evolving trust among the participants. It is a beginning, and doesn’t rely u the whims of US presidential politics which, in recent years especially, has changed significantly from administration to administration. This has been a consistent weakness in US foreign policy as it is often dependent on policy directives that are prematurely reset with the installation of new Congresses and Presidents, depending on the election cycle. On the other hand, the Abraham Accords require a continued US military presence in the region in order to fulfill its underlying Anti-Iranian platform, since the economic benefits are secondary in the policy priorities. There are credible reasons to condone a militarized US presence in the region as hard power maintains necessary pressure on parties to be supportive or face consequences. This approach, however, must be exercised with careful consideration of US credibility since no president wants to return to a ‘boots on the ground’ scenario anywhere in the Middle East.”
Read More Here

 

Al-Monitor
Economic Meltdown in Lebanon Leaves Pets Homeless
Rabih Damaj

Damaj writes, “Dr. Hosn, who runs a shelter in the Hammana area (eastern Lebanon) accommodating 550 dogs said, ‘Don’t throw your dogs out into the streets for any reason. There might be solutions to the food problem. You can mix animal food with some of your food, such as boiled vegetables with very small pieces of meat and chicken, but before adding salt and sugar. Then, add those to the animal food you have. On the one hand, the dog and cat eat healthy food, and on the other hand, you will save on buying a bag of food every month, and instead it lasts for three months.’ Securing food might be resolved using simple methods. But the big crisis is related to medical care for these animals, whether at home or in the streets. Most people who abandoned their animals did not do it because of the high cost of their food only, but because the animals got sick and they thought it best to leave them in the streets to face their fate alone.”
Read More Here

UNICEF Report
Violent Beginnings: Children Growing Up in Lebanon’s Crisis

Dr. Najat Maalla M’jid, the Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG) on Violence against Children, emphasizes, “Lebanon’s crisis threatens the present and the future of millions of children. Ensuring their protection from abuse, harm, and violence and safeguarding their rights are needed more than ever.”

Yukie Mokuo, UNICEF Lebanon Representative says, “Children’s safety and wellbeing are intricately connected to every pillar of a well-functioning society … it takes a village – food, housing, healthcare, regular schooling, thriving families and functioning social services and institutions – to help children grow up free from harm. When society begins to crumble, children are left extremely vulnerable to abuse, violence and exploitation.”
Access the Full Report Here

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 12/22/2021

DAILY NEWS

Aoun Addresses Cabinet Boycott, Calling it ‘Unacceptable’, While Miqati Cautions Against ‘Worsening Rift’
In a meeting of the Higher Defense Council, President Michel Aoun addressed the boycott of Cabinet sessions by Hizbullah and the Amal Movement, calling it “unacceptable.” [Naharnet] The meeting aimed to address the current crisis, and the recent increase COVID-19 infections in particular. [NNA] Prime Minister Najib Miqati said, “there is fear that calling for a Cabinet session would lead to a rift which we must cooperate to avoid.” He added that, “we’re all negatively affected by its failure to convene and we hope to be soon able to call for a meeting aimed at addressing the urgent issues.” [Naharnet]

Salameh: $12-15 Billion Needed to Kickstart Economy
In an interview with AFP, Lebanon’s Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh said, “our quota in the International Monetary Fund is 4 billion,” and elaborated that, “if countries add to it, we could reach 12 to 15 billion, an amount that could help start Lebanon’s recovery and restore confidence.” [France 24]

Gebran Bassil Responds to Constitutional Council, Calling Lack of Decision Politically Motivated by ‘Shiite Duo’
In a press conference yesterday, Free Patriotic Movement leader Gebran Bassil disparaged the Constitutional Council’s recent move to not move forward on an appeal that Bassil’s parliamentary bloc submitted in which they sought to repeal recently approved amendments made to the electoral law in October. According to L’Orient Today, “The council’s failure to reach a decision means the amendments remain effective. The amendments include allowing expatriates to vote from abroad in whichever of the 15 electoral districts in Lebanon from which they hail. If the amendments had been overturned, as the FPM wanted, expatriates would have voted for six MPs in their own, 16th, constituency.” [L’Orient Today]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Washington Awash With Middle East Policy Scenarios
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, The Baghdad Conference brought together major regional players, including Iran, to discuss common economic development opportunities and needs. The US did not participate, but agreements and accommodations emerged from evolving trust among the participants. It is a beginning, and doesn’t rely u the whims of US presidential politics which, in recent years especially, has changed significantly from administration to administration. This has been a consistent weakness in US foreign policy as it is often dependent on policy directives that are prematurely reset with the installation of new Congresses and Presidents, depending on the election cycle. On the other hand, the Abraham Accords require a continued US military presence in the region in order to fulfill its underlying Anti-Iranian platform, since the economic benefits are secondary in the policy priorities. There are credible reasons to condone a militarized US presence in the region as hard power maintains necessary pressure on parties to be supportive or face consequences. This approach, however, must be exercised with careful consideration of US credibility since no president wants to return to a ‘boots on the ground’ scenario anywhere in the Middle East.”
Read More Here

UNICEF Report
Violent Beginnings: Children Growing Up in Lebanon’s Crisis

Dr. Najat Maalla M’jid, the Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG) on Violence against Children, emphasizes, “Lebanon’s crisis threatens the present and the future of millions of children. Ensuring their protection from abuse, harm, and violence and safeguarding their rights are needed more than ever.”

Yukie Mokuo, UNICEF Lebanon Representative says, “Children’s safety and wellbeing are intricately connected to every pillar of a well-functioning society … it takes a village – food, housing, healthcare, regular schooling, thriving families and functioning social services and institutions – to help children grow up free from harm. When society begins to crumble, children are left extremely vulnerable to abuse, violence and exploitation.”
Access the Full Report Here

 

Al-Monitor
Israel Knows Attacking Iranian Nuke Program Will Bring War With Hezbollah
Ben Caspit

Caspit writes, “The issue of Iranian or Iranian-proxy retaliation, is crucial. According to Israeli assessments, Hezbollah would respond to an attack on its sponsor by letting fly everything it has in its arsenals, causing unprecedented damage to Israel’s economy and national morale. This weighty question arose previously when Israel was considering whether to strike in Iran almost a decade ago. Netanyahu is remembered as having pushed for a strike with the support of his then-Defense Minister Ehud Barak. But at the moment of truth, Barak changed his mind and ordered the air force to shut down its engines. We are now back at that same point.”
Read More Here

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 12/21/2021

DAILY NEWS

Health Minister Announces Expedited Provision Plan of Pharmaceuticals
Minister of Public Health Firass Abiad announced his decision to accelerate the process of registration for imported drugs, which in turn aims to promote the overall accessibility of drugs to the Lebanese people. The Minister addressed the question of pricing, saying that the medicines should be competitive to other available brands, among other topics. [L’Orient Today]

Political Leaders Still At Odds Amid UN Chief Visit
Timour Azhari writes, “despite expressions of goodwill by [UN Secretary General] Guterres on Monday following meetings with parliament speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Najib Miqati, a fresh attempt to reconvene the cabinet faltered.” [Reuters] Media reports Monday pointed to an allegedly “heated” debate between Miqati and Berri – apparently involving the threat of resignations from Shiite politicians and the Prime Minister, himself – as the unofficial series of political negotiations between the two concerning the resuming of the Cabinet in exchange for ‘compromises’ over other political issues, such as the subject of Judge Bitar, continues to get them both nowhere, paralyzing the government in the meantime. [Naharnet]

Constitutional Council Has Not Yet Decided on Electoral Amendments
“Conflicting perspectives remained after seven sessions, that prolonged over three to five hours each, and we couldn’t reach a unanimous decision between the seven members. Legally, since we couldn’t reach a decision, the law passed will remain in action and the date of the elections will depend on the Ministry of Interior,” said Council Chairman Judge Tony Mashlab, after the seventh and final meeting of the body was held, concerning electoral amendments submitted by the Free Patriotic Movement to electoral law number 44 of 2017. [L’Orient Today]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Washington Awash With Middle East Policy Scenarios
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, The Baghdad Conference brought together major regional players, including Iran, to discuss common economic development opportunities and needs. The US did not participate, but agreements and accommodations emerged from evolving trust among the participants. It is a beginning, and doesn’t rely u the whims of US presidential politics which, in recent years especially, has changed significantly from administration to administration. This has been a consistent weakness in US foreign policy as it is often dependent on policy directives that are prematurely reset with the installation of new Congresses and Presidents, depending on the election cycle. On the other hand, the Abraham Accords require a continued US military presence in the region in order to fulfill its underlying Anti-Iranian platform, since the economic benefits are secondary in the policy priorities. There are credible reasons to condone a militarized US presence in the region as hard power maintains necessary pressure on parties to be supportive or face consequences. This approach, however, must be exercised with careful consideration of US credibility since no president wants to return to a ‘boots on the ground’ scenario anywhere in the Middle East.”
Read More Here

 

The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Gulf Rupture With Lebanon Exacerbates Beirut’s Economic Woes
Sussan Saikali

Saikali writes, “Many Gulf Arab governments seem increasingly averse to providing further support to a country that appears unable to undertake genuine structural reforms. And with Hezbollah’s long dominant – and increasing – political influence in the troubled Lebanese state, Gulf actors seem reluctant about immediate reengagement, a position that may not change, given the prospects for continuing Hezbollah pivotal influence. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have historically sought to secure greater influence in Lebanon, and the improving financial positions of these oil- and gas-producing states may again provide the economic means for various forms of engagement. In some ways, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are turning away from Lebanon, Qatar seems best positioned to expand aid, although Saudi support and Emirati investment (in tandem with heavy Saudi political involvement) dwarfed previous Qatari efforts.”
Read More Here

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 12/20/2021

DAILY NEWS

UN Secretary General Urges Lebanese Leaders to Prioritize Its People and Reform
“It is essential for leaders to put the people first, and implement the reforms needed to set Lebanon back on track, including efforts to promote accountability and transparency, and root out corruption,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres reiterated in a video message preceding his official visit to Lebanon. [Reuters]  “Seeing the suffering of the people of Lebanon, Lebanese political leaders do not have the right to be divided and paralyse the country,” he said in a press conference with President Michel Aoun. [France 24]

US Official: US Is Revising Its Approach to the Region
A US official, on condition of anonymity, shared several departures in its approach to the Middle East with journalists in Washington on Friday, commenting on a variety of sub-regions and issues. Referring to Lebanon, the official indicated the US’s intention to avoid, “any more failed states.” The US official also stated that the US is, “making clear that the only people that can save Lebanon are the Lebanese, and particularly the Lebanese political leaders who have to make hard choices to save their country.” He added, “An awful lot of work is going on behind the scenes on Lebanon as we move forward.” [Al Arabiya English]

Deputy PM: Lebanon May Reach Progress with IMF Between January and February
Citing Deputy Prime Minister Saadeh Al Shami, the Al-Jadeed station publicized his anticipation of a preliminary agreement concerning IMF financial assistance to Lebanon occuring sometime between January and February. [Reuters]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Washington Awash With Middle East Policy Scenarios
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, The Baghdad Conference brought together major regional players, including Iran, to discuss common economic development opportunities and needs. The US did not participate, but agreements and accommodations emerged from evolving trust among the participants. It is a beginning, and doesn’t rely u the whims of US presidential politics which, in recent years especially, has changed significantly from administration to administration. This has been a consistent weakness in US foreign policy as it is often dependent on policy directives that are prematurely reset with the installation of new Congresses and Presidents, depending on the election cycle. On the other hand, the Abraham Accords require a continued US military presence in the region in order to fulfill its underlying Anti-Iranian platform, since the economic benefits are secondary in the policy priorities. There are credible reasons to condone a militarized US presence in the region as hard power maintains necessary pressure on parties to be supportive or face consequences. This approach, however, must be exercised with careful consideration of US credibility since no president wants to return to a ‘boots on the ground’ scenario anywhere in the Middle East.”

Read More Here

Malcom H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Enemies of the Good

Michael Young

Young writes, It’s true that Macron stumbled last year in thinking that the Lebanese political elite would readily go along with his initiative to push for economic reform and the establishment of a government that would work toward this end. However, this should not detract from the fact that Lebanon is highly fortunate to have retained a measure of French interest, because no one, absolutely no one, considers the country a priority today. At a time when the Lebanese are facing a financial and economic crisis of historical proportions—and that is the assessment of the World Bank—such concern is essential.”

Read More Here

Center for Strategic and International Studies
CSIS Briefs: Lebanon’s Growing Humanitarian Crisis
Will Todman, Caleb Harper

Todman and Harper write, “Lebanon’s political quagmire will not end any time soon. The elections scheduled for Spring 2022 are unlikely to displace the corrupt political class, which has resisted necessary reforms to end Lebanon’s crises at every turn. Humanitarian aid will not solve Lebanon’s fundamental problems, but it could slow Lebanon’s collapse and open some space for political discussions with Lebanese officials to implement systems that better serve the needs of vulnerable people in Lebanon. Donors’ highest priorities should be to improve the effectiveness of the humanitarian aid they provide to support the creation of systems that will serve Lebanon’s longer-term needs. International actors disagree about the best way to respond to the needs of vulnerable communities in Lebanon, and there is a strong bias for the status quo after many years of humanitarian operations in the country. But needs in Lebanon have changed dramatically over the last couple of years. An independent review of the aid architecture is needed to provide a full understanding of the current challenges in Lebanon and how to optimize the international aid response and ensure it does not exacerbate issues.”

Read More Here

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Washington Awash with Middle East Policy Scenarios

Analysts and commentators have identified several markers of the US’s lack of interest in regaining its leadership role in the Middle East including ex-President Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA agreement that would have limited Iran’s nuclear ambitions, his launch of the Abraham Accords that dealt out the Palestinians as players in their own futures, and our disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan under the Biden administration, among other markers. The withdrawal drama was welcomed by some, ridiculed by others, and challenged by those who see America’s role shifting away from dominance in the region.

At a recent Middle East Institute webinar, cosponsored with the Center for American Progress (CAP), analysts opined on the future US policy over the next decade. The implications of their answers varied based on their commitment to power relationship – both soft and kinetic – the primacy given to a military-based leadership strategy, weight ascribed to rising competition from Russia and China, perspectives on the ascent of the UAE, Egypt, and Turkey as challenges, and definitions of US policies in relation to conceptions of China as our most serious competitor. The report, “A More Balanced and Long-Term Approach to US Policy in the Middle East,” will be released shortly by CAP.

Brian Katulis, co-author of the report, feels that the US is deficient in two dimensions of its ME policy. The first is the absence of a long-term strategic vision that includes larger doses of soft power diplomacy and smaller doses of weapons sales and military engagement. Depending on the specific area, whether the Gulf, Yemen and Sudan, or the Levant, Egypt and North Africa, the US has much to gain from creating alliances and relationships that approach the region’s most pressing challenges holistically rather than hiving off of issues with which we are more comfortable, such as arms and training support, in vain.

A similar theme was expressed by Trita Parsi of The Quincy Institute, writing in The New Prospect. He contrasts the “Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership” approach with the model of the Abraham Accords, in which the former relies on regional economic and political relationships for leadership while the latter relies on facilitating a reconciliation between Arab dictatorships and Israel for the sake of countering Iran’s influence.

The Baghdad Conference brought together major regional players, including Iran, to discuss common economic development opportunities and needs. The US did not participate, but agreements and accommodations emerged from evolving trust among the participants. It is a beginning, and doesn’t rely on the whims of US presidential politics which, in recent years especially, has changed significantly from administration to administration. This has been a consistent weakness in US foreign policy as it is often dependent on policy directives that are prematurely reset with the installation of new Congresses and Presidents, depending on the election cycle.

On the other hand, the Abraham Accords require a continued US military presence in the region in order to fulfill its underlying Anti-Iranian platform, since the economic benefits are secondary in the policy priorities. There are credible reasons to condone a militarized US presence in the region as hard power maintains necessary pressure on parties to be supportive or face consequences. This approach, however, must be exercised with careful consideration of US credibility since no president wants to return to a ‘boots on the ground’ scenario anywhere in the Middle East. When given a strategic vision of how these newly normalized relationships will evolve, US foreign policy becomes dependent on keeping Israel at least aware of the US concern with Israel’s provocative actions that undercut prospects for conflict mitigation and resolution, either in Lebanon or Palestine.

A third voice on this topic appeared in an article in the CAP Report from Brian Katulis and Peter Juul, which introduced the assumptions in the previously mentioned report. Titled “Strategic Reengagement in the Middle East,” it argues that “The Biden Administration can rebalance America’s policy in the Middle East through diplomacy, economic statecraft, and security cooperation – all while shifting away from direct military action.”

The article begins by stating the need to better understand US interests in the region with respect to security, economics, and values. The authors offer five key pillars on which to base a reemerging and patient US policy as well as five key lessons learned from our past 50 years in the region. As the US winds down the levels of its military deployment through disengagement in the Middle East, it is vital to simultaneously build partnerships that focus beyond confrontation. The paper is worth reading both because of its thoroughness and its emphasis on how the US can adapt its leadership in a multilateral sea of leaders.

For too long, the US has approached the Middle East along three vectors: Israel, energy, and arms sales. There is so much more to these relationships that go back in earnest to the 1970s. Hundreds of thousands of Arabs have been educated in the US and have sent their children here as well. We once had a very robust public diplomacy effort that has suffered budget cuts, disabling our ability to communicate our full diplomatic vision abroad. Our diplomats are not as well trained as they should when it comes to integrating content with technology. The list of qualms goes on and on as to how to build back our foreign policy better in a new era of diplomacy in the Middle East, but it begins with an element that has not changed; it begins with building relationships with the people.

 

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon. 

This Week In Lebanon: 12/18/2021

December 18, 2021

US Treasury official meets with the Association of Banks in Lebanon
US Watching Closely as Lebanese Military Court Tries Civilians 
Minister of Interior Says Elections Likely to Happen in May 
US Treasury official meets with the Association of Banks in Lebanon
On December 16, US Department of the Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson delivered an address to the Association of Banks in Lebanon. Undersecretary Nelson reaffirmed the US government’s solidarity with the Lebanese people against Hezbollah and its exploitation of them and the international financial system. He pressed banks to prioritize due diligence measures such as identifying politically exposed persons and identifying their funding sources and warned that those who do not do so may face US sanctions. [L’Orient Today]

RESPONSE

“Undersecretary  Nelson’s clear and authoritative comments received wide applause in Lebanon. Underscoring the Biden Administration’s priority to expose corruption around the world, Nelson invited the bankers to work with the United States in an effort to weed out corrupt depositors, stop illegal flows of money, and enact transparent banking practices that protect honest depositors. He also put them on notice that corrupt bankers would suffer consequences under international and US law. It is clear the Biden administration is prioritizing anti-corruption efforts and will hold corrupt actors accountable for their part in destabilizing Lebanon’s banking system, and that more sanctions on individuals will be forthcoming.”

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

US Watching Closely as Lebanese Military Court Tries Civilians

“Governments should protect the rights of all persons to voice their views without fear of intimidation, even in cases where we do not agree with those views,” a State Department official told Al Arabiya English. In Lebanon, the Publications Court is where journalists are supposed to face any legal actions. The Military Court was formed to bring legal action against security personnel, but it has often been used against those accused of endangering national security or terrorism… “The use of courts, particularly military ones, to prosecute defamation cases against civilians undermines freedom of expression,” the State Department official said. [Al Arabiya]

RESPONSE
“Why do Lebanese officials continue to disregard Lebanon’s laws and Constitution? The Publications Court is where charges against journalists and the media are to be investigated. Yet, frequently, the Military Court, which was set up to bring charges against security personnel, is used to silence critics of the government under the rubric of ‘harming the military.’ The LAF does not supervise the Military Court which is under the Ministry of Defense. This makes a mockery of the judicial system. Fundamental human rights such as speech and association, seem to be arbitrarily cast aside when they inconvenience those with power and influence. This does not inspire hope that the Lebanese will figure out how to empower independent and credible institutions any time soon.”

-ATFL Vice President for Policy Jean AbiNader

Minister of Interior Says Elections Likely to Happen in May

Minister of Interior Bassam Al-Mawlawi said that December 27th is the deadline by which the electoral law can be amended and the elections rescheduled. Minister Mawlawi also indicated that he will not issue an official decree appointing a date for elections, signed off by the President of the Republic, before an agreement is settled between President Aoun and Prime Minister Miqati. According to him, President Aoun is unlikely to sign off on a March 27th date for Parliamentary elections. [Naharnet]

RESPONSE
“Time is running out for the election law to be finalized. By the end of December, all of the rules must be in place including date, final verdict on mega-centers (which will likely be ruled out), the diaspora vote, and other key issues. While it appears that elections will be held on May 22, we won’t know for sure until December 27 when the final decree is due. Lebanon’s politicians must unequivocally understand that elections must be held on time, with international monitors,  without political obstructions, and fair treatment of the diaspora voters. These are clear expectations from the international community and most Lebanese. Scheming to extend the terms of Parliament and the President will have severe consequences for those involved, regardless of affiliation. It’s time to stand for what is right for the people.”

-ATFL Vice President for Policy Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 12/17/2021

DAILY NEWS

IMF Responds to Lebanon’s $69 Billion Assessment of Losses, ‘Considerable Progress’
“Any strategy for dealing with these losses needs to come together, of course, with the implementation of comprehensive reforms to restore confidence, strengthen incentives for investment, enhance governance and transparency,” IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said. He added that this was, “critical to boost employment, sustainable growth and reduce poverty over the years ahead.” [L’Orient Today]

BDL Offers Dollars to Commercial Banks on Sayrafa Exchange
Lebanon’s Central Bank issued a circular on Thursday decreeing that it would sell U.S. dollars to commercial banks at the rate on its Sayrafa foreign exchange platform, which was 22,300 LL as of Thursday. Following the preceding week’s adjustment of the withdrawal rate from 3,900 LL to 8,000 LL for deposits denominated in US dollars, dubbed in the popular media as the ‘Lollar Rate’, this new temporary policy allows depositors to use withdrawn Lebanese pounds to buy back dollars at the 22,300 LL Sayrafa rate, effectively imposing a roughly 70% ‘haircut’ on the value of their original dollar deposit. [Reuters]

US Treasury Official Meets With The Association of Banks in Lebanon
“[US Treasury Department’s new Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson] encouraged the Lebanese banks to take stronger measures to protect the Lebanese financial system from corruption by applying firm due diligence to identifying Lebanese politically exposed persons or “PEPs” and determining their source of funds, while reminding that banks that fail to conduct adequate measures may risk sanctions,” according to a press release issued by ABL. [L’Orient Today]

UN Secretary-General to Visit Lebanon This Sunday
“At this challenging time for Lebanon, this will be a visit of solidarity during which the Secretary-General will reaffirm the support of the entire U.N. family – from our political teams and peacekeepers to our humanitarian aid workers and development professionals – for the country and its people,” according to the UN. [Naharnet]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Lebanon Continues To Leak Talent And Hope
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, What is different about the latest waves of emigration are the low levels of those wanting to leave who say they are not interested in returning. It will be illuminating to break down this data by sectarian affiliation as the number of Sunni wanting to leave is increasing which may ultimately change their demographic in Lebanon. According to the Gallup World Poll cited earlier, ‘The desire to leave Lebanon cuts across major Lebanese communities. Notably, more Muslims than Christians in Lebanon tell Gallup they would like to leave the country (67% vs. 57%). The exodus of Middle Eastern Christians from the historical cradle of Christianity has accelerated in recent decades because of conflict and instability in countries that held significant Christian populations in the not-distant past.”
Read More Here

 

L’Orient Today
Hezbollah And Amal Not So Anxious to Save Aoun

Yara Abi Akl, translated from French by Joelle El Khoury

Abi Aki writes, “[President Michel Aoun] squarely blamed the government’s lethargy on his main political opponent, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, and on Hezbollah, his longtime ally. Through these remarks, the president has widened the gulf between himself and Hassan Nasrallah’s party, with which he has not been on good terms for several months. Disagreements between the two camps have been heard on several issues, including the Aug. 4, 2020, tragedy and the 2022 legislative elections.”
Read More Here

 

Fikra Forum, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
New Lebanon Poll: Sectarian Consensus Against Beirut and for Beijing

David Pollock, Carol Silber

Pollock and Silber write, A nuanced portrait also emerges from an explicitly comparative question on this topic. The survey asked about this assertion: “Our country cannot count on the U.S. these days, so we should look more to Russia or China as partners.” Among Shia, 83% agreed. But among the other two major sects, the corresponding proportions were just under half: Sunnis, 46%; Christians, 45%.”
Read More Here

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 12/16/2021

DAILY NEWS

Miqati Reiterates Cabinet Won’t Convene without Prior Agreement
Prime Minister Najib Miqati said, “it is true that the governmental work is continuing through the ministerial meetings we’re holding, or through the competent ministries and administrations, but the absence of Cabinet meetings represents a gap that we’re seeking to address calmly and patiently.” He added that, “calling for a Cabinet session amid the current tense circumstances, and without securing the minimum level of understanding, would stoke the dispute and make things more complicated.” [Naharnet]

Ministry of Interior Orders Deportation of Bahraini Opposition Members
Minister of Interior Bassam Mawlawi on Wednesday ordered the deportation of non-Lebanese members of al-Wefaq, Bahrain’s dissolved opposition group, after some criticized the Bahraini government in a Beirut news conference. Bahrain’s Interior Minister, Sheikh Rashid bin Abdullah Al Khalifa, called his Lebanese counterpart on Wednesdayto tell him that events such as the al-Wefaq news conference, or Kordahi’s comments, “harm Lebanon and its people.” [Reuters]

Public Transport Drivers Strike Across Lebanon, Blocking Roads
Taxi and public transportation drivers on Thursday staged a strike, blocking several vital roads across Lebanon to press authorities on fulfilling promises of economic support. All roads were reopened around noon local time. [Naharnet]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Lebanon Continues To Leak Talent And Hope
Jean AbiNader
AbiNader writes, What is different about the latest waves of emigration are the low levels of those wanting to leave who say they are not interested in returning. It will be illuminating to break down this data by sectarian affiliation as the number of Sunni wanting to leave is increasing which may ultimately change their demographic in Lebanon. According to the Gallup World Poll cited earlier, ‘The desire to leave Lebanon cuts across major Lebanese communities. Notably, more Muslims than Christians in Lebanon tell Gallup they would like to leave the country (67% vs. 57%). The exodus of Middle Eastern Christians from the historical cradle of Christianity has accelerated in recent decades because of conflict and instability in countries that held significant Christian populations in the not-distant past.”
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L’Orient Today
Between Aoun And Mikati, Has Paris Made Its Choice?

Salah Hijazi
Hijazi writes, Mikati is obviously the main person to speak to about everything related to the enactment of reforms. French diplomat Pierre Duquesne, who is in charge of coordinating international support for Lebanon, abstained from meeting with the president yesterday, as he has done in previous visits. He did, however, head to the Grand Serail for an encounter with the prime minister. ‘Mr. Duquesne is in charge of a humanitarian and technical dossier, not a political one. He does not have any reason to visit the president,’ said Randa Takieddine, a France-based journalist who closely follows French policy on the Lebanese file. Theoretically, this is entirely logical. Yet, in the Lebanese context, sidelining the president on such an important matter can be seen as problematic. This is true particularly since the head of state has reiterated his willingness to assume a role in this dossier.”
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Al Arabiya English
US Watching Closely As Lebanese Military Court Tries Civilians

Joseph Haboush
Haboush writes, Governments should protect the rights of all persons to voice their views without fear of intimidation, even in cases where we do not agree with those views,’ a State Department official told Al Arabiya English. In Lebanon the Publications Court is where journalists are supposed to face any legal actions. The Military Court was formed to bring legal action against security personnel, but it has often been used against those accused of endangering national security or terrorism…’The use of courts, particularly military ones, to prosecute defamation cases against civilians undermines freedom of expression,’ the State Department official said.”
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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans. 

Lebanon Daily News Brief 12/15/2021

DAILY NEWS

Lebanese Public Prosecutor Orders Arrest of Ali Hassan Khalil Next Year
Lebanon’s public prosecutor on Tuesday instructed the security forces to arrest Ali Hassan Khalil, a former finance minister and right hand man to Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri. As one of several current and former officials charged in connection with the August 4th Explosion, the arrest warrant referred by Judge Tarek Bitar to the security forces on Tuesday called for Khalil, who is also an MP, to be detained once parliament is out of session, which will happen after January 1st according to the constitution. [Reuters]

Gulf Cooperation Council Calls on Lebanon to Curtail Hezbollah, Smuggling
Secretary General Nayef Falah Mubarak al-Hajraf said Lebanon should strengthen its military, prevent Hezbollah from conducting “terrorist operations”, and ensure that arms are limited to “legitimate state institutions.” [Reuters]

Deputy PM Puts Forward Official Figure of Losses, Between $68-69 Billion
Lebanese officials have put forward a figure of losses in the country’s financial sector which are somewhere between $68 billion and $69 billion, according to Deputy Prime Minister Saadeh al-Shami, who cautioned that the figure was based on some assumptions that could change. Agreement on the loss figure is seen as a crucial preliminary step for Lebanon’s negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). [Reuters]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Lebanon Continues To Leak Talent And Hope
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, What is different about the latest waves of emigration are the low levels of those wanting to leave who say they are not interested in returning. It will be illuminating to break down this data by sectarian affiliation as the number of Sunni wanting to leave is increasing which may ultimately change their demographic in Lebanon. According to the Gallup World Poll cited earlier, ‘The desire to leave Lebanon cuts across major Lebanese communities. Notably, more Muslims than Christians in Lebanon tell Gallup they would like to leave the country (67% vs. 57%). The exodus of Middle Eastern Christians from the historical cradle of Christianity has accelerated in recent decades because of conflict and instability in countries that held significant Christian populations in the not-distant past.”
Read More Here

 

Al-Monitor
Intel: Egypt seeks US sanctions assurance in gas plan for Lebanon

Elizabeth Hagedorn

Hagedorn writes, After a decade of international isolation, Syria’s participation in the four-country gas deal underscores the gradual resumption of ties between Damascus and some Arab states. In recent months, President Bashar al-Assad has hosted Emirati Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Damascus and held a phone call with King Abdullah II of Jordan.”
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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

 

Lebanon Daily News Brief 12/14/2021

DAILY NEWS


French Court Orders Lebanese Saradar Bank to Pay $2.8 Million to French-Based Client
“The Nov. 19 ruling, not yet published but seen by Reuters, orders Lebanon’s Saradar Bank to pay the Syrian claimant all the funds she had deposited in two accounts at the bank in 2014.” The court order pertaining to deposits worth $2.8 million is the first-known international ruling against informal capital controls undertaken by Lebanese banks since 2019. [Reuters]

TotalEnergies Agrees to Preliminary Study for Zahrani Power Plant
According to the Lebanese Energy Ministry, French energy group, TotalEnergies, has agreed to conduct a technical and financial preliminary study, a major initial step to building a floating regasification unit in Lebanon’s Zahrani power plant. The Ministry added that the plant’s annual gas capacity of 650 million cubic meters will rise to 1.4 billion cubic meters should the new unit be built. [Reuters]

President Aoun Calls for Cabinet Session, ‘Even if It Gets Boycotted’
“The (government’s) paralysis cannot persist,” President Aoun said, adding that, “there are matters that need to be addressed.” The President also said, “the elections will take place,” claiming that, “there will be an agreement on holding the elections in May.” [Naharnet]

OPINION & ANALYSIS


Lebanon Continues To Leak Talent And Hope
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, “What is different about the latest waves of emigration are the low levels of those wanting to leave who say they are not interested in returning. It will be illuminating to break down this data by sectarian affiliation as the number of Sunni wanting to leave is increasing which may ultimately change their demographic in Lebanon. According to the Gallup World Poll cited earlier, ‘The desire to leave Lebanon cuts across major Lebanese communities. Notably, more Muslims than Christians in Lebanon tell Gallup they would like to leave the country (67% vs. 57%). The exodus of Middle Eastern Christians from the historical cradle of Christianity has accelerated in recent decades because of conflict and instability in countries that held significant Christian populations in the not-distant past.”

Read More Here

Al-Monitor
Will Lebanon’s Economic Crunch Stir Demographic Change?
Hanan Hamdan

Hamdan writes, “The emigration of Lebanese, especially Christians, raises concerns in Lebanon in terms of the demographic change that it may lead to, in light of the economic crisis that the Lebanese have been experiencing for nearly two years.”

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L’Orient Today
Macron, MBS, Hezbollah: Behind the Scenes of a Play in Three Acts
Mounir Rabih

Rabih writes, “For MBS, however, Lebanon is under Hezbollah’s thumb, which poses a threat to the security of Arab countries and plays a role in captagon trafficking to the Gulf. Yet, Macron was able to push him to make a concession: A phone call to Mikati from the French president’s personal phone. Macron reportedly exchanged a few words with the Lebanese premier before passing the phone to MBS. The rest of the story has two contradictory versions.”

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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.