Lebanon Daily News Brief 1/31/2022

DAILY NEWS

President Aoun Promises BDL Audit

President Michel Aoun issued a statement promising that a forensic audit will be conducted into the central bank and criticized ‘deliberate procrastination’ by BDL in complying with the data requests of Alvarez and Marsal (A&M), the restructuring consultancy conducting the audit. The BDL responded with a statement of its own, claiming that the required data was provided, “in a manner that doesn’t conflict with the law and international standards.” [Reuters]

 

Vatican Representative Visits Lebanon

Archbishop Paul Richard Gallagher, the Vatican’s Secretary for Relations with States, is visiting Lebanon this week, meeting with Lebanese political leaders as well as religious leaders conveying the messages and ‘worries’ of Pope Francis. [The961]

 

Cabinet Approves Public Sector Social Aid, Includes Pensioners

The Cabinet approved an increase of social contributions for the public sector as well as for institutions of social welfare, which will amount to 400 billion Lebanese pounds. According to Naharnet“A social contribution of 75% of the salary basis will be given for the public sector, as well as the pensioners.” There was neither any agreement regarding the electricity treasury loan nor for the issue of the customs dollar. [Naharnet]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Are We Facing The Fading Future Of The Future Movement?
Jean AbiNader 
AbiNader writes, “in May 2021, the World Bank noted that Lebanon has an outdated and fragmented procurement system and especially lacks the adequate technology to monitor procurement, exposing the public sector to high risks of corruption. While some of the issues were addressed in the two laws, they both lack enforcement mechanisms. In fact, a World Bank study indicated that Lebanon did not at all meet even 57% of the 210 specific criteria used in the assessment and partially met only another 34%. And, as reported by the Byblos Bank Economic Research Department, ‘it found major shortcomings in the system’s regulatory, institution and operational frameworks, and considered that there is considerable room for improving the accountability, integrity, and transparency criteria.’ What does the Future Movement and Saad Hariri’s resignation have to do with all of this? Consider the sectarian divisions of Lebanon’s government, which rules by coalition as is the case in most parliamentary systems. The absence of members affiliated with the Future Movement leaves Hezbollah and its allies with fewer obstacles to imposing their will on parliament. On the flip side, if in the coming election Future holds its seats as part of an opposition coalition, even the slightest shift of 10-15 seats would dull the edge that Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, and their allies have to block vital reform initiatives.

Read More Here

 

A Shift In The Political Landscape
Ibrahim JouhariJouhari writes, “Former PM Saad Hariri announced the suspension of his personal and political party’s participation in Lebanese political life in an emotional address. The former PM explained that despite his many efforts to compromise, some are unwilling to let the country move forward. He stressed that this negative trend has been amplified by a growing Iranian hegemony, in a tumultuous regional dynamic, with the international community’s lack of decisiveness . . . On the other hand, many other Sunni figures and groups, especially from the alternative parties that grew after the 17th of October popular movement, now have a golden opportunity to pick up the pieces and prove themselves capable of filling part of the void left by Future Movement. However, the window of opportunity is closing fast, and these groups need to finalize a lot of organizational efforts and aggregation to prove that they are a viable alternative and start attracting part of the orphaned FM Sunni supporters.”

Read More Here

 

Lebanon’s Bahaa Rafik Al-Hariri Says He Will Continue His Father’s Journey

Arab News writes, “Bahaa, 55, who has not held public office before and largely kept away from politics, said in a recorded speech sent to news outlets, ‘First of all, it must be emphasized that neither our religion, nor our morals, nor our upbringing, we, the sons of Martyr Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, allow us to abandon our responsibility and we put all our capabilities for the sake of Lebanon’s renaissance, Lebanon the message, Lebanon the symbol, Lebanon the homeland . . . We learned that: We are the people of moderation, not extremism; We are the people of reconstruction, not collapse; We are people of citizenship, not discrimination; We are the people of sovereignty, not dependence; We are the people of the Arab depth; The son of the martyr Rafik Hariri will not leave Lebanon, we are with you and very soon we will show you. Long live free and independent Lebanon’.”

Read More Here

 

POLICY ANALYSIS 

Decrypting the State
Ghida Tayara
Tayara writes, In March–April 2020, the Lebanese Central Inspection Agencylaunched IMPACT, or the Inter-Ministerial and Municipal Platform for Assessment, Coordination, and Tracking. IMPACT is an e-governance platform—the first of its kind in Lebanon—that caters to citizens, government employees, and nongovernmental organizations . . . IMPACT is a significantly beneficial multipurpose digital tool. The platform pushes forward interministerial collaboration as well as close cooperation between the central government and local authorities. The platform is also a valuable decentralization tool that should be used more by the government. The transparency of the data collected and availability on the website enables citizens to take on accountability roles, and the data that is aimed at governing bodies enhances these bodies’ decision making. Digitizing governmental processes can help reduce corruption, consolidate development efforts, and help reform the public administration. This aligns with the three main roles of the Central Inspection Agency—oversight, guidance, and development.

Read More Here

 

World Politics Review

Biden Is Rightsizing U.S. Ambitions in the Middle East

Ellen Laipson

Laipson writes, “Assessing the Biden administration’s performance in the Middle East at the one-year mark requires some careful metrics. Should the benchmark be a comparison to the turbulent Trump years, or to earlier times when U.S. diplomacy was defining the regional agenda and, on occasion, making a meaningful contribution to achieving peace? Should it prioritize the possibility that people in the region, who once resented the effects of too much U.S. power, now fear its absence, or the emerging consensus in Washington that the U.S. has more urgent strategic challenges to attend to elsewhere? Biden administration officials talk in pragmatic terms about the Middle East, and many observers in the U.S. foreign policy community applaud the effort to set achievable goals, without grandiose ambition. Bret McGurk, the Biden team’s point man on the Middle East who has now served in four presidential administrations, is quick to acknowledge that for decades, the U.S. has overcommitted and overpromised in the region.”

Read More Here

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

This Week In Lebanon: 1/29/2022

January 29, 2022

Analysis: Lebanon Slips Further into Iran’s Orbit as Hariri Bows Out 
Perry and Bassam write, “A decision by Sunni Muslim leader Saad al-Hariri to step away from Lebanese politics opens the way for Shi’ite Hezbollah to extend its already deep sway over the country, rendering it ever more a bastion of Iranian influence on the Mediterranean. Three times prime minister, Hariri declared on Monday he would suspend his role in public life and boycott a general election in May, citing Iranian influence as one of the reasons he saw little hope of positive change . . .” [Reuters

RESPONSE

“Former PM Hariri’s decision to retire from Lebanese politics has been expected for several months, but his unexpected decision to boycott the upcoming election plays into the hands of Hezbollah and old-line traditional party heads. This is  not  helpful for the reformist agenda. Sunni leaders must come together with the opposition in a show of unity and strength to overcome Hariri’s statement and display to the electorate that Sunnis reformists will fight to win seats in May.”

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

The World Bank Describes Lebanon’s Crisis as Great Denial

On Tuesday, the World Bank issued a press release where it accused Lebanese officials of causing the country’s current depression and charged them with being in denial in regards to their lack of response to the current crisis. They noted how the poor and the middle class are the most affected by the current crisis and observe that it has also caused a brain drain. The release concluded with a series of recommendations to lessen Lebanon’s economic collapse. [The 961]

RESPONSE
“What more can be said or written? Lebanon is being strangled to death by an economic and political elite that looks after their own and could care less for the rest of the country. What does the future hold for a country that lets 70+% of its people struggle to survive without basic essential services and supplies? Nationally, its economy is in the same class of performance as Yemen and its institutions function at the level of Sudan. Is this the Lebanon our parents and grandparents taught us to love and remember?”

-ATFL Vice President for Policy Jean AbiNader

Kuwaiti Minister in Lebanon over Diplomatic Row with Gulf; Top Kuwaiti Diplomat Offers Gulf Lifeline to Help End Lebanon Crisis

Last Saturday, Kuwait’s Foreign Minister delivered a series of recommendations to Lebanese officials on how they can mend ties with the Gulf States. This is the first visit from a senior Gulf official to Lebanon since a diplomatic row that erupted in October following the comments of former Information Minister George Kordahi about the War in Yemen. [AP] Foreign Minister Sheikh Ahmad Nasser al-Mohammad al-Sabah asserted that Lebanon cannot “be a platform for any aggression – verbal or actual.“ He asserted that he wants to rebuild trust between both sides. Kuwait will soon host an Arab foreign ministers summit at the end of the month to assess Lebanon’s response to the Gulf states’ proposals and evaluate next steps. [Al Monitor]

RESPONSE

“The Gulf Arabs, through Kuwait, have spoken, and they didn’t mince words. To regain the financial and political support that Lebanon desperately requires to decrease Iran’s influence and presence in the country, there are conditions ranging from reining in Hezbollah to silencing critics of Gulf leaders. Given the disastrous economic conditions in the country and the desperate need for the remittances from Lebanese working in the Gulf, these are more than threats; they are crippling indictments of a government and political system that no longer serves the majority of the Lebanese.”

-ATFL Vice President for Policy Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Are We Facing the Fading Future of the Future Movement?

 

No matter which sources you consult, the verdict is the same: Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s decision to resign from politics and encourage his party, the Future Movement, to do the same is a blow to the Sunni community. His call for the party to boycott the May elections especially lays the groundwork for a counterproductive disruption of the status quo, and, inevitably, a net boost to the fortunes of Hezbollah. If it turns out that this decision will lead to a postponement of the elections, this move will be seen as a capitulation to the “same old, same old” oligarchy that has brought Lebanon to ruin.

And what a ruin it has become. According to a recently released study by Save the Children, children in Lebanon have lost several years of their education, nutrition, health services, and family stability due to the economic and political paralysis in the country on top of the COVID-19 crises. The study’s findings echo an earlier UNICEF reportthat revealed, “More and more families are being forced to resort to negative coping measures, including skipping meals, sending their children to work in often hazardous conditions, or marrying off their young daughters.”

Without going into more details, as both studies are publicly available, one can only hope that these patterns of societal catastrophe are a cause for some kind of moral awakening among Lebanon’s political elite, but their courage is less than apparent.. The economy continues to slide, the sectarian divisions continue to fester, and many qualified professionals are deciding to leave rather than bearing witness to the further debilitation of their livelihoods and communities.

The good news? At least discussions with the IMF have restarted, which is promising for the progress of a rescue package, but only if Parliament approves the draft national budget presented by the Ministry of Finance last week. If…

Since many sectarian leaders will be seeking their pound of flesh vis-à-vis their shares of government programs, the approval process may still be a while. Especially given Mr. Hariri’s recent withdrawal from politics, there seem to be plenty of reasons that can be used to justify postponing the elections, as the oligarchy bides its time striking deals that more deeply entrench the corruption that has become so commonplace in the country.

Even proposed solutions, after some scrutiny, are merely band-aids. For example, the passage of a national strategy for public procurement reform on January 20 was the subject of much commentary. Since this reform is one of the pre-conditions for an IMF package, it was heralded as a ‘stepping stone to reform’ by the Ministry of Finance. Upon closer reading, however, it seems that there are a few scabs that are in need of healing for the procurement reform to be realized. Although the Ministry promised that its implementation would occur in the summer of 2022, as Parliament passed a general procurement law in June 2021, there are gaps preventing the law’s implementation, which involve even more laws and codes to be enacted by the government. These obstacles have not yet been addressed.

For example, in May 2021, the World Bank noted that Lebanon has an outdated and fragmented procurement system and especially lacks the adequate technology to monitor procurement, exposing the public sector to high risks of corruption. While some of the issues were addressed in the two laws, they both lack enforcement mechanisms. In fact, a World Bank study indicated that Lebanon did not at all meet even 57% of the 210 specific criteria used in the assessment and partially met only another 34%. And, as reported by the Byblos Bank Economic Research Department, “it found major shortcomings in the system’s regulatory, institution and operational frameworks, and considered that there is considerable room for improving the accountability, integrity, and transparency criteria.”

What does the Future Movement and Saad Hariri’s resignation have to do with all of this? Consider the sectarian divisions of Lebanon’s government, which rules by coalition as is the case in most parliamentary systems. The absence of members affiliated with the Future Movement leaves Hezbollah and its allies with fewer obstacles to imposing their will on parliament. On the flip side, if in the coming election Future holds its seats as part of an opposition coalition, even the slightest shift of 10-15 seats would dull the edge that Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, and their allies have to block vital reform initiatives.

That is what is at stake. Even the Catholic Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi noted, “I wasn’t expecting it, neither did I expect that his decision would include al-Mustaqbal (The Future) Movement . . . if Hariri had his reasons, why did his decision include the entire movement?” So we are left with several questions: Will the party repudiate his call, rally around new leadership, and work to defeat the status quo? Nothing less than Lebanon’s territorial integrity and sovereignty could be at stake.

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 1/27/2022

Daily News

Deputy UNSCOL: Fuel Provided to Health Centers, Water Stations from UN to End in Two Months
Deputy UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon and Resident Humanitarian Coordinator Najat Rochdi, at a site visit, clarified that UN-provided fuel to supply generators of health centers and water stations will wind down by March, and that the UN cannot take the place of the state in the absence of sustainable solutions for the long-term. [L’Orient Today]

 

Maritime Border Talks to Resume Next Week

Negotiations between the Lebanon, UN, and Israel, with the US as a mediator, concerning the demarcation of the maritime border will continue next week. According to Naharnet, President Michel Aoun told UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka in a meeting that Lebanon is, “ready to resume the negotiations for the demarcation of the southern maritime border in a manner that preserves the Lebanese state’s rights and sovereignty.” [Naharnet]

 

Ministry of Finance: 2022 Budget For ‘Emergency,’ To Include ‘Realistic Exchange Rate’
Minister of Finance Youssef Khalil described the 2022 budget as an ’emergency budget’, as the Cabinet reconvenes this week and continues to discuss the draft budget. [Reuters] According to a document published by the Finance Ministry, Lebanon intends to adopt a ‘realistic exchange rate’ between the Lebanese Lira and the US Dollar in the 2022 Budget, though the value of the exchange was not specified. [Reuters]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS 

Are We Facing The Fading Future Of The Future Movement?
Jean AbiNader 
AbiNader writes, “in May 2021, the World Bank noted that Lebanon has an outdated and fragmented procurement system and especially lacks the adequate technology to monitor procurement, exposing the public sector to high risks of corruption. While some of the issues were addressed in the two laws, they both lack enforcement mechanisms. In fact, a World Bank study indicated that Lebanon did not at all meet even 57% of the 210 specific criteria used in the assessment and partially met only another 34%. And, as reported by the Byblos Bank Economic Research Department, ‘it found major shortcomings in the system’s regulatory, institution and operational frameworks, and considered that there is considerable room for improving the accountability, integrity, and transparency criteria.’ What does the Future Movement and Saad Hariri’s resignation have to do with all of this? Consider the sectarian divisions of Lebanon’s government, which rules by coalition as is the case in most parliamentary systems. The absence of members affiliated with the Future Movement leaves Hezbollah and its allies with fewer obstacles to imposing their will on parliament. On the flip side, if in the coming election Future holds its seats as part of an opposition coalition, even the slightest shift of 10-15 seats would dull the edge that Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, and their allies have to block vital reform initiatives.

Read More Here”

 

Al Jazeera
Lebanon Teachers Strike Over Conditions As Education Crisis Grows
Kareem Chehayeb
Chehayeb writes, “On January 10, the country’s public school teachers launched an open-ended strike. Most of Lebanon’s public schools have closed and refuse to open, as teachers demand higher wages and stipends to earn a living wage. Lebanon’s public sector workers’ wages have not been adjusted to reflect the pound’s nose-diving devaluation of more than 90 percent and the country’s soaring inflation rate. In the two years since the country’s economic crisis began, three-quarters of the population has slipped into poverty, making the cost of electricity, water, and food big burdens as millions of families are forced to work with shrinking budgets.

Read More Here

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 1/26/2022

DAILY NEWS

Ministry of Interior Seizes Captagon Concealed in Tea Shipment
In the latest publicized seizure of Captagon pills, this time concealed in a large shipment of tea bound for Saudi Arabia via Togo, Lebanese authorities accompanied the Minister of Interior and Municipalities Bassam Mawlawi at a press conference announcing the thwarted smuggling attempt. [Naharnet]

 

Lebanon Signs Power Deal with Jordan
The energy ministers of Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria signed an agreement in Beirut on Wednesday, marking a major step in an overland energy deal that would supply Lebanon with Jordanian electricity via Syria. Lebanon’s Minister of Energy Walid Fayad clarified that importing electricity from Jordan will cost about $200 million USD per year, funded via the World Bank. He stated, “The Lebanese people need electricity every hour, and we will provide about 250 megawatts of electricity in cooperation with Jordan and with the participation and support of Syria, which reinforces joint Arab action.”  [MTV]

 

Maronite Patriarch Al-Rahi Reacts to Hariri’s Resignation

According to Naharnet, Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi commented on Former Prime Minister and Future Movement Leader Saad Hariri’s decision to leave politics when he said, “I wasn’t expecting it, neither did I expect that his decision would include al-Mustaqbal Movement . . . If Hariri had his reasons, why did his decision include the entire movement?” [Naharnet]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS 

Reuters
Analysis: Lebanon Slips Further Into Iran’s Orbit As Hariri Bows Out
Tom Perry and Laila Bassam
Perry and Bassam write, “A decision by Sunni Muslim leader Saad al-Hariri to step away from Lebanese politics opens the way for Shi’ite Hezbollah to extend its already deep sway over the country, rendering it ever more a bastion of Iranian influence on the Mediterranean. Three times prime minister, Hariri declared on Monday he would suspend his role in public life and boycott a general election in May, citing Iranian influence as one of the reasons he saw little hope of positive change . . . Stronger financially than most in Lebanon, Hezbollah is well positioned to capitalise on Hariri’s retreat. A source familiar with Hezbollah’s thinking said the group is already eyeing potential gains for its allies in the Sunni community, typically local politicians lacking the national sway of Hariri’s party.” 

Read More Here

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 1/25/2022

DAILY NEWS

Lebanon’s Cabinet Reconvenes, Draft 2022 Budget Discussed
In the Cabinet’s second session since October 12th, discussions were held at the Grand Serail over the draft 2022 budget. [Naharnet] Although there were apparent disagreements, especially over proposed increases in taxes, the Cabinet plans to meet every day this week, in parallel with the official IMF negotiations. [L’Orient Today]

 

Deputy PM: IMF Talks Begin
Saadeh al-Shami, the Deputy Prime Minister, said that Monday’s initial round of talks with the International Monetary Fund focused on the budget, the banking sector, and the exchange rate. In a statement he said, We hope the negotiations will be concluded as soon as possible, but given the complexity of the issues, it is possible that other rounds will be held until we reach an agreement.” IMF Mission Chief for Lebanon, Ernesto Ramirez Rigo, is leading the team that is conducting these discussions with Lebanese officials. [Reuters

 

Jordanian and Syrian Energy Ministers to Meet in Beirut Tomorrow 
Tomorrow a signing ceremony between Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon will take place concerning a joint energy deal, led by Syrian Energy Minister Ghassan Al-Zamil, Jordanian Energy Minister Saleh al-Kharabsheh, and Lebanese Energy Minister Walid Fayad. According to L’Orient, “The first [agreement], between Lebanon and Jordan, is for the latter to supply electricity to Lebanon; and another agreement with both Jordan and Syria is for the energy to be transmitted via Syria to Lebanon.”  [L’Orient Today]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

The World Bank
Lebanon’s Crisis: Great Denial in the Deliberate Depression
The World Bank writes, “The scale and scope of Lebanon’s deliberate depression are leading to the disintegration of key pillars of Lebanon’s post-civil war political economy. This is being manifested by a collapse of the most basic public services; persistent and debilitating internal political discord; and mass brain drain. Meanwhile, the poor and the middle class, who were never well served under this model in the first place, are carrying the main burden of the crisis. According to the World Bank Lebanon Economic Monitor (LEM) Fall 2021 ‘The Great Denial’, Lebanon’s deliberate depression is orchestrated by the country’s elite that has long captured the state and lived off its economic rents.  This capture persists despite the severity of the crisis -one of the top ten, possibly top three most severe economic collapses worldwide since the 1850s; it has come to threaten the country’s long-term stability and social peace. The country’s post-war economic development model which thrived on large capital inflows and international support in return for promises of reforms is bankrupt. In addition, the collapse is occurring in a highly unstable geo-political environment making the urgency of addressing the dire crisis even more pressing.”

Read More Here

Read the Fall 2021 Report Here

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 1/24/2022

DAILY NEWS

Kuwait’s Foreign Minister Visits Lebanon
Foreign Minister of Kuwait Sheikh Ahmad Nasser al-Mohammad Al-Sabah met with President Michel Aoun, Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and Speaker Nabih Berri, which marks the first high-ranking visit from a GCC official to Lebanon since the recent diplomatic rift between the Gulf and Lebanon. In a statement he said, “There is a desire by everyone for Lebanon to be stable and secure, and this happens through the implementation of international and Arab legitimacy resolutions.”  [LBC]

 

Lebanon’s Cabinet Reconvenes, Draft 2022 Budget to Be Discussed Tomorrow 
In the first session since October 12th, the Cabinet reconvened earlier today, addressing a 56-item agenda. Although several decisions were taken – including the approval of an increased private sector transportation allowances for LAF and ISF service members, appointing the first-ever president of the National Anti-Corruption Commission, among other measures – the discussion of the Draft 2022 Budget has been postponed to tomorrow. The Cabinet is scheduled to reconvene over a six-hour session in order to discuss the proposed budget. [L’Orient Today]

 

Former Leader of Future Movement Announces Suspension of Political Life, Supporters Block Roads Across the Country
During a press conference from his house in Beirut and in front of hundreds of supporters, Former Prime Minister and Future Movement Leader Saad Hariri stated, ”I announce the suspension of work in political life, and I call on my family in the Future Movement to take the same step, not to run in the parliamentary elections, and not to submit any candidates from the Future Movement or on its behalf.” [MTV] In reaction to this, a number of Hariri’s supporters took to the streets across the country, in one instance blocking a major highway in Beirut with motorcycles and garbage bins. [MTV (Arabic)]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Saad al-Hariri Has Announced His Withdrawal From Politics
Michael Young

Young writes, “Because of Hariri’s exit, there is now a far greater possibility that Sunni voters will either be demobilized or will see their votes fragmented. This could create openings for Hariri’s political rivals—notably Hezbollah and the Aounists—to gain more seats. To avoid this, members of the Future Movement may try to maintain their organization’s internal coherence by running candidate lists around the country that are not officially supported by Hariri or Future, but that the former prime minister would have favored. Hariri’s abandonment is also another major chapter in the Saudi decision to disengage from Lebanon, even though the wisdom of this is debatable. Few people may give Hariri high marks for political foresight, but it seems odd that the kingdom has so readily surrendered its strongest card in Lebanon—a large Sunni community that can push back against Hezbollah. Politics is about playing the hand that you are dealt, as Iran has shown in Yemen, and compelling adversaries to compromise. By forcing Hariri out, however, the Saudis have left Lebanon’s Sunnis in a void, which may harden Hezbollah’s and Iran’s conviction that they have no need to compromise.”

Read More Here

 

Al-Monitor 
Economic Meltdown Drives Some Lebanese To Collect Recyclables For A Living
Rodayna Raydan
Raydan writes, “Recycling for money has even become more common in households that in the past barely questioned the value of recyclable items and instead threw everything away . . . People in Lebanon are traditionally already familiar with implementing key waste management and circular economy principles, as older generations used to apply these methods without being aware of the benefits and their links to recycling. Many families in villages collected milk tanks and used them as plant pots; others commercialized the collection of metal and steel decades ago for resale. But again, this emerging trend of collecting recyclable waste from dumps or waste containers has mainly made its appearance in the shadow of the economic crisis. ” 

Read More Here

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

This Week In Lebanon: 1/22/2022

January 22, 2022

Hezbollah, Amal Movement to End Boycott of Cabinet Sessions
Announced in a statement on Saturday, the two shiite political groups, Amal Movement and Hezbollah, declared an end to their ministers’ boycott of cabinet sessions after a three-month paralysis has limited the Lebanese government’s capacity to assuage its crises. [Al-Jazeera]

RESPONSE

“Amal and Hezbollah said ‘they would end (their) boycott,’ following three months of stagnation due to their past obstruction.  This should allow the government to enter into serious negotiations with the IMF regarding a reform package that, if enacted, is the single most important action they can take in order to halt the economic decline in Lebanon. The real test is whether this government can now come together and produce a reform program, stabilize the lira, fix the power sector, complete the audit of the Central Bank, and move ahead the Beirut Port explosion investigation. Until then, Hezbollah and Amal will continue to be viewed as roadblocks to progress.”  

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

‘No Money Left’: Lebanese Telcos Close to Meltdown as Cable Thieves Thrive; Lebanon Faces Internet Service Interruption Amid Fuel Crisis

Lebanon’s two telecommunications companies are now spending the majority of their money on diesel for their private power generators they increasingly use due to widespread power outages. Lebanon’s tech duopoly are now struggling to get by on a day-to-day basis. [Reuters] Last Sunday, internet service was disrupted across the country because of diesel shortages. This outage affected over 26,000 users, including operation rooms of Internal Security. Later that same day, Achrafieh, in east Beirut, also ran out of diesel and temporarily ran on batteries. [US News and World Report]

RESPONSE
“Let’s clarify the lesson of this story. Lebanon, the once-was, “wanna-be”, educational center of the Levant, can’t even sustain its internet. It’s a death knell not only to educational attainment but also to entrepreneurs, people, and businesses that rely on technology for communications. Innovation, learning, transactions, data acquisition and storage, and so many other functions are disrupted by the failed power sector. Time to implement changes already passed in parliament to make the sector relevant and less painful to the Lebanese and their livelihoods.”

-ATFL Vice President for Policy Jean AbiNader

The EU Issued A Statement Denouncing The Lebanese Decision-Makers

On Wednesday, the European Union Delegation to Lebanon and European member-states in Lebanon issued a statement of condemnation against the Lebanese government and Lebanese decision-makers. They called for action with recommendations such as the resumption of regular cabinet meetings, an IMF agreement to solve the economic crisis, and fair and transparent elections. Their statement also included a call for justice and accountability at the conclusion of the Port of Beirut Blast Investigation. [The 961]

RESPONSE
“Lebanon’s leaders must heed the calls of the international community to take these suggested steps on reform, combating corruption, the need for on-time elections, and an effective transitional government. It is time to face the consequences of mismanagement and corruption that have made Lebanon a beggar state.”

-ATFL Vice President for Policy Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 1/21/2022

DAILY NEWS

Cabinet Meeting to Be Held Monday Morning
According to the National News Agency, the Cabinet will convene at 9 AM on Monday morning in its first session since October of last year. Among the 56 items on the agenda is the draft 2022 budget which will be discussed in the meeting. [NNA (Arabic)]

 

Finance Ministry Publishes Draft Budget
In preparation for Monday’s upcoming cabinet session, the Ministry of Finance published its draft 2022 budget. The budget anticipates a deficit of 10.26 trillion Lebanese Lira, based on a revenue estimation of LL39.15 trillion and expenditure figure of LL 49.42 trillion. The budget also includes an incentive exempting depositors bringing foreign money into the country from taxes for five years, among other proposals. [L’Orient Today]
Click Here to Read the Full Budget Draft [Arabic]

 

Treasury Announces Additional Sanctions on Hezbollah-Affiliates
Today the US Department of Treasury sanctioned two Hezbollah-affiliated ‘financial facilitators’, Adnan Ayad as well as Adel Diab in addition to members of an international network of their affiliates and related companies that are present in Lebanon, Germany, and Zambia. [Department of Treasury] As Joseph Haboush writes, “Friday’s move comes just days after three other men and their Lebanon-based travel company were designated for facilitating and laundering finances to Hezbollah.” [Al Arabiya News]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Lebanon Continues To Be Plagued By Conspiracies
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, “Opposition figures were quick to challenge Amal and Hezbollah’s sudden awakening to their national responsibilities. The original cause of the boycott was their opposition to the investigation over the Beirut Port explosion, which has yet to be completed. The trade-off that seems to be swirling around their latest move prioritized the re-emergence in the cabinet over their campaign of postponing the investigation . . . the elections are the opportunity to change the face of Lebanese politics by reducing the number of MPs in the Amal-Hezbollah alliance. This outcome would give the opposition the necessary votes to reduce corruption, limit the impact of the Amal-Hezbollah alliance on government policies, and secure a reform agenda to redirect Lebanon’s resources and policies toward reconstruction and stability, and away from sectarianism and corruption.” 

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Kulluna Irada
Open Letter to the IMF: Kulluna Irada’s Ten Principles for Lebanon’s Recovery

Kulluna Irada writes, “As the ruling elite faces a destabilizing crisis, its imminent priority is to perpetuate itself, buy time ahead of key electoral milestones, evade accountability, and avoid assuming losses. These same urgencies are guiding its negotiations, and a possible commitment, with the Fund. Instead, priorities should be set to reverse the severe social hemorrhage, ensure equitable loss distribution, and guarantee sustainable economic recovery. As such, the upcoming discussions bear great responsibility for the IMF, whose intervention in the Lebanese crisis will go in the annals of history, and should not, by any means, contribute to further build-up of odious debt and the perpetuation of an illegitimate regime, particularly ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections.”
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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 1/20/2022

DAILY NEWS

Judicial Delegation to Visit Paris on Probe of BDL Governor
Next week a Lebanese judicial delegation will go to Paris to discuss ongoing investigations of Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, on suspicions of fraud, money laundering, illicit enrichment, and other allegations. Foreign countries like France and Switzerland are sites of external judicial investigations targeting Salameh. The date of the visit has not been specified. [L’Orient Today]

 

Minister of Health: Healthcare System on Brink of Collapse
Lebanon’s Minister of Health Firass Abiad said, “If this crisis goes on for long without solutions we will of course come closer to a great collapse.” He added, “there is no doubt Lebanon is a sick country now but the main question is whether it’s a terminal disease or a disease that can be cured . . . to recover, as we tell patients, there is a treatment plan they must adhere to.” [Reuters]

 

Snowstorm ‘Hiba’ Hard on Impoverished Lebanese and Refugees
According to AP News, “A snowstorm in the Middle East has left many Lebanese and Syrians scrambling to find ways to survive, burning old clothes, plastic and in some cases even sheep manure to keep warm as temperatures plummet and poverty soars. [AP News]

 

FPM Deputy Upholds Strength of Hezbollah Alliance
In an MTV interview, the Deputy Head of the Free Patriotic Movement May Khreish said, “The alliance with Hezbollah is too deep to be dissolved with every difference, and we expressed our dissatisfaction with some issues.” [MTV]

 

Jailed Depositor Threatened Hostages at Bank
Protesters staged a sit-in outside the Palace of Justice in support of Abdallah al-Sahi who turned himself in to be arrested after taking hostages inside a Bekaa branch of the Bank of Beirut and the Arab Countries, demanding to withdraw the $50,000 he had in his account. In a statement, the association of banks condemned, “all forms of violence [and] . . . the repeated attacks that have recently targeted a number of branches, endangering employees’ lives.” [Naharnet]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Lebanon Continues To Be Plagued By Conspiracies
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, “Opposition figures were quick to challenge Amal and Hezbollah’s sudden awakening to their national responsibilities. The original cause of the boycott was their opposition to the investigation over the Beirut Port explosion, which has yet to be completed. The trade-off that seems to be swirling around their latest move prioritized the re-emergence in the cabinet over their campaign of postponing the investigation . . . the elections are the opportunity to change the face of Lebanese politics by reducing the number of MPs in the Amal-Hezbollah alliance. This outcome would give the opposition the necessary votes to reduce corruption, limit the impact of the Amal-Hezbollah alliance on government policies, and secure a reform agenda to redirect Lebanon’s resources and policies toward reconstruction and stability, and away from sectarianism and corruption.” 
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The National Interest 
Are Hezbollah’s Lebanese Allies Turning Against It?
Adnan Nasser

Nasser writes, “Many in Lebanon see Bassil as a man who aspires for the presidency after his father-in-law, Michel Aoun. Further, if Hezbollah loses the largest Christian political party in Lebanon, it will no longer have the cross-sectarian alliance that has legitimized its independent weapons arsenal. Additionally, some citizens support transferring Hezbollah arms to the Lebanese army. Nevertheless, if permanent change manifests between Hezbollah and the FPM, it will be the public revelation of where they do not align politically. Still, if the unthinkable happens and the pact ends, it carries the risk of a breakdown in social cohesion among the Lebanese. At that point, coexistence between different faiths cannot depend on politician dealmaking. Instead, it will require the Lebanese people’s wisdom to live in peace with one another.”
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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.