Lebanon Daily News Brief 02/28/2022

DAILY NEWS

KSA and France to Establish Joint Support For Lebanese People
During talks between Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and the French Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian in Paris, the two governments agreed on financing several humanitarian projects in Lebanon, which includes offering direct support to non-governmental organizations in the relief and public aid sectors, especially targeting hospitals and primary health care centers. [Reuters]

Ukrainian Ambassador Thanks Lebanon For Support, Russian Ambassador: FM Statement ‘Won’t Affect Relations’
The Ukrainian Ambassador to Lebanon Ihor Ostash said in a press conference, “From all my heart, I thank the Lebanese government and its people for standing behind us . . . We are receiving many support messages on our social media pages from Lebanese people showing their support to us in our war.” [L’Orient Today] Meanwhile, Russian Ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Rudakov has said that the  statement issued by the Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “does not take into consideration the cordial and historic bilateral relations between the two countries. . . . It will not affect our relation . . . During the difficult days, we know who is with us and who is against us.” [Naharnet]

Hundreds of Lebanese Students Stranded in Ukraine
Hundreds of Lebanese students studying in Ukraine – who are among the more than 10,000 students from the Arab world –  are now caught in the middle of the Russian invasion. According to France 24, “1,300 Lebanese students were studying in the country [before the invasion]. Half managed to flee by their own means, but the rest are stuck.” Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said that planes will be sent to neighboring Poland and Romania at a date to be announced later. [France 24]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Middle East Institute
Data Shows Nowhere In Syria Is Safe For Return
Ashley Jordan, Samy Akil, Karam Shaar

Jordan et al. writes, “All host countries should end the use of force, coercion, and incentives to drive Syrians back to Syria before it is safe, especially while there is a near complete absence of monitoring and safeguarding measures. The fundamental principle of non-refoulement as established in the 1951 Refugee Convention should hold firm at the core of all stakeholder policies, and the categorization of any area as “safe” should not be determined solely on the basis of whether or not military operations are being carried out there. Syrians are subject to many types of risks and violations, as our research shows; these can be both explicit and implicit, and based on varied factors including political affiliations, area of origin, religion, gender, tribe, and more.”

Read More Here

 

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

This Week In Lebanon: 2/27/2022

February 27, 2022

Lebanon Condemns Russian Invasion of Ukraine
On Thursday, Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement which condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and called for Russian forces to withdraw from there immediately. Meanwhile, neighboring Syria has voiced support for the Russian government and many other Arab nations have remained silent on the conflict. [Al Arabiya]

RESPONSE

“Lebanon distinguished itself in its condemnation of Russian actions in Ukraine. This is in stark contrast to Syria and other Middle Eastern countries that have “kept a distance from the ongoing invasion of Ukraine,” or supported Russian actions.  This statement shows the positive interplay between US Ambassador Shea and the leadership in Lebanon. This is a telling moment for international support of US actions. Now countries will be closely judged on whether they are with or against the US. There will be little tolerance within the State Department of middle ground doublespeak on such a consequential issue.”

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

Saudi Foreign Minister: Lebanon Needs To Actively Save Itself
The Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, has stated that Lebanon needs to implement needed reforms to to receive support from the international community. Speaking at the the 58th Munich Security Conference (MSC 2022) held from February 18 to 20 in Munich, Foreign Minister Al Saud stated, “Lebanon first needs to be actively saving itself…We need a stronger signal from the Lebanese body politic that they are going to step up.” [The 961]

RESPONSE
“The Saudis are clearly unhappy with Lebanon but it’s more than their anger with Hezbollah’s fronting Iran’s interests. The Foreign Minister was quite clear in his comments – reforms, reforms, reforms. After all, they have poured billions of dollars into Lebanon since the Civil War to prop up the efforts of successive prime ministers, and aside from Saudis owning some choice real estate, they have little to show for their investments. Drug smuggling, pretentions of cultural superiority, and pervasive corruption have soured the relationship. Yes there are two sides to the perceptions but regardless, it’s past time for Lebanese leaders to understand that the region has changed and the country’s future depends in large part on listening to our former allies and responding credibly.”

-ATFL Vice President for Policy Jean AbiNader

Lebanon Approves $18 Million to Hold May Election
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) updated Lebanon’s classification from a “hybrid regime” to an “authoritarian regime” in its 2021 Annual Democracy Index. According to L’Orient Today, “EIU’s analysis of Lebanon’s deteriorated score attributed the country’s 2021 score to the growth of “the power of interest groups related to Lebanon’s sectarian political system” amid a further deteriorating economy and “fuel shortages [that] worsened the cost of living crisis.” The report also indicated that the score factored in ‘the worsening perceptions of democracy and rising support for military rule.'” [L’Orient Today]

RESPONSE

“Lebanon has added another credential to its international notoriety. The EIU designation of Lebanon as “authoritarian” is well-earned if you click on the link and follow the criteria used by the Economist. Lebanon’s ranking is almost 55% lower than the world average due to the power of interest groups that are stronger than the government, the deteriorating economy, fuel shortages, the cost of living crisis, the worsening perceptions of democracy, and rising support for military rule. Prime Minister Mikati is in a struggle. Will his fellow Presidents move towards a rescue scenario for Lebanon, or are they betting on election results which guarantees their stranglehold on Lebanon’s future?”

-ATFL Vice President for Policy Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 02/25/2022

DAILY NEWS

Lebanon Condemns Russian Invasion of Ukraine
According to a statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, “Lebanon condemns the invasion of Ukrainian territory and calls on Russia to halt its military operation immediately and withdraw its forces… and return to dialogue and negotiations as a better means of finding a solution.” [Al Arabiya News]

Interior Minister To Submit Study On Megacentres To Cabinet Tomorrow
Yesterday, Minister of Interior and Municipalities Bassam Mawlawi announced that he will submit a study to the cabinet on the implementation of ‘megacenter’ polling centers regarding the upcoming May 15th parliamentary elections. President Michel Aoun’s twitter indicated that the two officials discussed, “the final preparations to organize the parliamentary elections with precision, fluidity and transparency, so that all Lebanese can go to the polling stations in the country and abroad.” [L’Orient Today]

Ministry of Transport: Spanish Funds For Railway Revival Plan
Public Works and Transport Minister Ali Hamie announced his anticipation of a deal that Lebanon will sign with the Spanish government regarding a comprehensive master plan for the revival of Lebanon’s 407 kilometer, 252 mile railway system, which has been out of commission for several decades. [France 24]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

 

Lebanon, The IMF, And The Parliamentary Elections – What’s The Story?
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, “The IMF identified five main areas of achievable, short- and medium-term measures that would provide a framework for future reforms. According to Byblos Bank, this includes ‘reforming state-owned enterprises starting with the energy sector and improve delivery services without additional public financing [subsidies]; enhancing transparency and accountability by strengthening the governance, anti-corruption, and the anti-money laundering, and combating financing of terrorism frameworks; reforming public finances to ensure debt sustainability and to provide space for social spending and reconstruction; restructure the financial sector to restore confidence and support the recovery; as well as establishing a credible monetary and exchange rate system.’ The IMF had other recommendations regarding the sequence of reforms suggesting that the government move immediately on energy sector and public procurement laws and take steps to build credibility with the Lebanese people as well as international donors. The approval of a proactive 2022 national budget will send a strong signal that the government intends to move in the right direction as the bottom line remains the same: it’s up to the Lebanese Parliament and political leadership to take the necessary first steps on the pathway of reform.”

Read More Here

 

L’Orient Today
The Beirut Port Silos: A Memory The State Wants To Tear Down Despite Myriad Preservation Proposals
Rana Tabbara

Tabbara writes, “Last month, Economy Minister Amin Salam announced in a press conference that the government intends to tear down the silos and construct new ones in a different area. Salam said that the economy and environment ministries have been collaborating on this file since as soon as it was found that the ‘silos need immediate action in terms of cleaning them to reach the stages of demolition and reconstruction’. . . The Beirut Urban Declaration initiative started a petition two weeks ago calling on the government not to proceed with a plan to demolish the Beirut port silos. The petition states that ‘the fate of the silos lies within the public interest,’ adding ‘we demand that it be considered a vital space and a public right of the city.’ Adding their voices to those opposing the silos’ destruction, relatives of the blast victims gathered Sunday afternoon in front of the port to protest the state’s proposed demolition.”

Read More Here

 

Al Arabiya News
Colombia Is Tackling The Threat Of Hezbollah In South America
Alissa Pavia and Joze Pelayo

Pavia and Pelayo write, “Hezbollah has always posed as a terrorist threat in the region. The attacks on the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires in 1992 and the 1994 AMIA bombing indicate the group’s work. Together, they left 114 people dead and hundreds more wounded. Despite evidence suggesting Hezbollah’s involvement, no one has been held accountable . . . Hezbollah’s overseas operations have often reflected domestic politicking in Lebanon and targeted Israel. Since the Beirut Port explosion, Hezbollah has been aware that it has entered a new chapter in Lebanon, where living conditions are poor. Hezbollah’s hands could be tied, but the Iranian-backed group could decide to escalate through violence both in and outside the Middle East should, among other things, the JCPOA talks fail to produce an agreement. As of February 2022, a nuclear deal is getting closer.”

Read More Here

 

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 02/24/2022

DAILY NEWS

BDL Extends Foreign Exchange Authorizations To Money Transfer Companies Pending Criteria
Following the Central Bank’s Circular 614 from Monday, all money transfer companies operating in Lebanon that meet certain criteria will now be able to facilitate foreign exchange operations at the request of their customers and with funds received from abroad, which was only previously extended to OMT, the representative of the Western Union network in Lebanon. Among the criteria that local money transfer companies must comply with by June 30, 2022 is the 500 million Lebanese Lira capital requirement as well as the requirement that transfer companies have a record of $50 million USD in inflows flowing into Lebanon in the year prior to its application for a license. The currencies purchased through this process will then be expected to be resold to BDL exclusively. [L’Orient Today]

Future Movement Official: No IMF Deal, Worse Situation Ahead
As reported by Naharnet, an unspecified ‘senior official’ in the Future Movement said, “What we know is that there will be no solutions. There will be neither an agreement with the International Monetary Fund nor solutions in the coming days and months,” adding, “From the Presidency camp’s conflicts with each of the central bank governor and the director general of the Internal Security Forces, it is clear that things are headed for further problems and to a worse situation.” [Naharnet]

Draft Budget Sent to President Aoun
According to L’Orient Today, “During the cabinet meeting at the Grand Serail, Finance Minister Yousef Khalil presented the draft budget for 2022, which Prime Minister Najib Mikati signed today and sent to President Michel Aoun for his signature. When he does, it will be sent to Parliament, where it is expected to be discussed next week.” [L’Orient Today]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Lebanon, The IMF, And The Parliamentary Elections – What’s The Story?
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, “The IMF identified five main areas of achievable, short- and medium-term measures that would provide a framework for future reforms. According to Byblos Bank, this includes ‘reforming state-owned enterprises starting with the energy sector and improve delivery services without additional public financing [subsidies]; enhancing transparency and accountability by strengthening the governance, anti-corruption, and the anti-money laundering, and combating financing of terrorism frameworks; reforming public finances to ensure debt sustainability and to provide space for social spending and reconstruction; restructure the financial sector to restore confidence and support the recovery; as well as establishing a credible monetary and exchange rate system.’ The IMF had other recommendations regarding the sequence of reforms suggesting that the government move immediately on energy sector and public procurement laws and take steps to build credibility with the Lebanese people as well as international donors. The approval of a proactive 2022 national budget will send a strong signal that the government intends to move in the right direction as the bottom line remains the same: it’s up to the Lebanese Parliament and political leadership to take the necessary first steps on the pathway of reform.” 

Read More Here

 

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Sada Journal
Lebanon’s Looming Election Disaster
Nicholas Noe

Noe writes, “There is, fortunately, still a limited window to reverse course. The first step, however, needs to come from those within Lebanon who say that they want change. Today, professed anti-establishment individuals, parties, and movements are fractious; these actors should unify at least in demanding that the current government immediately implements several small-scale but crucial reforms to ensure a free and fair election. First and foremost, these demands should call for a strong, well-funded Supervisory Commission to monitor campaigning, potential intimidation, as well as the vote count itself. In order to ensure that political parties can’t track voters, an array of well-known administrative mechanisms should also be put in place, including limiting the number of ballot boxes at any one polling station (which makes it harder for parties to know how someone voted) and creating “megacenters” for people to vote near to where they live, rather than in faraway villages where their families originate from.”

Read More Here

 

Al Monitor
Lebanese Wary Of Rise Of Customs Duties Amid Economic Crisis
Hanan Hamdan

Hamdan writes, “The customs dollar is the price for calculating the customs value of imports, and it is paid in Lebanese pounds. Its price was fixed according to the official exchange rate at 1,515 against the US dollar. Amid the freefall of the local currency value since October 2019 and the emergence of multiple dollar exchange rates, talks about amending the exchange rate of the customs value have made headlines. Immediately after approving the state budget, Prime Minister Najib Mikati said in a statement that the customs dollar will be applied when the budget is ratified in parliament. He noted that the exchange rate of customs transactions for imports will be set by the central bank’s foreign exchange platform, known as Sayrafa, and will be announced by the minister of finance on a monthly basis.”

Read More Here

 

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 02/23/2022

DAILY NEWS

Minister of Interior: Three Suicide Attacks Foiled 
Bassam Mawlawi, the Minister of Interior and Municipalities, announced that three separate attacks by members of the Islamic State group – which would have inflicted a large number of casualties in Beirut’s southern suburbs – were thwarted. Mawlawi specified that attackers were planning shootings and suicide attacks in the Ouzai and Lailaki areas, among other southern suburbs of Beirut and praised the Director General of the ISF Major General Imad Osman for operation. [AP News]

Annual Democracy Index Classifies Lebanon As ‘Authoritarian’ For First Time
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) updated Lebanon’s classification from a “hybrid regime” to an “authoritarian regime” in its 2021 Annual Democracy Index. According to L’Orient Today, “EIU’s analysis of Lebanon’s deteriorated score attributed the country’s 2021 score to the growth of “the power of interest groups related to Lebanon’s sectarian political system” amid a further deteriorating economy and “fuel shortages [that] worsened the cost of living crisis.” The report also indicated that the score factored in ‘the worsening perceptions of democracy and rising support for military rule’.” [L’Orient Today]

EU Observers To Monitor May Elections
The European Union will send observers to Lebanon in order to monitor the upcoming May 15 Parliamentary elections. The EU’s High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said, “The holding of elections is first and foremost a right and an expectation of the people of Lebanon, as well as a sovereign responsibility that the Lebanese government must follow through.” [Naharnet]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Lebanon, The IMF, And The Parliamentary Elections – What’s The Story?
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, “The IMF identified five main areas of achievable, short- and medium-term measures that would provide a framework for future reforms. According to Byblos Bank, this includes ‘reforming state-owned enterprises starting with the energy sector and improve delivery services without additional public financing [subsidies]; enhancing transparency and accountability by strengthening the governance, anti-corruption, and the anti-money laundering, and combating financing of terrorism frameworks; reforming public finances to ensure debt sustainability and to provide space for social spending and reconstruction; restructure the financial sector to restore confidence and support the recovery; as well as establishing a credible monetary and exchange rate system.’ The IMF had other recommendations regarding the sequence of reforms suggesting that the government move immediately on energy sector and public procurement laws and take steps to build credibility with the Lebanese people as well as international donors. The approval of a proactive 2022 national budget will send a strong signal that the government intends to move in the right direction as the bottom line remains the same: it’s up to the Lebanese Parliament and political leadership to take the necessary first steps on the pathway of reform.” 

Read More Here

 

Al Monitor
Lebanese Seniors Get Second Chance At Education
Rabih Damaj

Damaj writes, “The University for Seniors at AUB is the first of its kind in Lebanon and the region. It has been a great success since it was founded in 2010 by Health Sciences PhD Abla Sibai and her colleague Cynthia Mintty. And even today, despite all the frustrating economic and social conditions in Lebanon, the elderly are still eager to learn. But after the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, most of the lessons are now remote. Studies have shown that remaining intellectually and physically active helps people age more healthily, program manager Maya Abi Chahine told Al-Monitor. Also, 11% of Lebanon’s population is over the age of 65, and the number is growing, and many elderly people in Lebanon live alone while their children and grandchildren live abroad.” 

Read More Here

 

The Heritage Foundation
2022 Index of Economic Freedom: Lebanon

“Lebanon’s economic freedom score is 47.3, making its economy the 162nd freest in the 2022 Index. Lebanon is ranked 12th among 14 countries in the Middle East and North Africa region, and its overall score is below the regional and world averages.”

Read More Here

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon, the IMF, and the Parliamentary Elections – What’s the Story?

A war of words is being waged against the prospects and need for an IMF rescue package as some sources claim it will force drastic measures in the name of reforms that would undermine the long-term stability of the economy. This is not a new claim, especially coming from those who have the most to lose in any alteration of the status quo and restructuring of the banking sector, transparency in public procurement, and stabilization of the currency. The lower and middle classes have already suffered the most from the devalued currency, hyperinflation, and inability to procure essential health products or pay for basic services such as education and power. The arrow of paying the price is gradually turning towards those who use Lebanon as a base and have suffered little dislocation from the economic withering of the State.

The reaction of the Association of Lebanese Banks to the proposed financial plan is just one indicator out of several revealing how those with deeply vested interests envision the pain should be spread. Of course, the plan has many flaws, especially because of its uneven distribution of losses and its reliance on a timeline that does not deliver relief to the majority of bank depositors. Where are the alternative scenarios, though, that are able to meet the three objectives of stabilizing the currency, restraining national spending, and increasing state revenues? Yes, the devil is in the details but without these steps, Lebanon remains a pariah in the investment community.

According to the Economic Research Unit of the Byblos Bank, the IMF said, after its last two weeks of consultations in Lebanon, that, “the unprecedented and complex nature of the Lebanese crisis requires a comprehensive economic and financial reform program to stabilize the economy, to address deep-seated challenges, and to lay the ground work for sustainable and strong growth.” While the negotiating teams were in agreement on the areas in which to target reform, additional meetings are needed to produce a detailed program. In other words, the government needs to do its homework, pass a national budget, and build a national consensus to support a multi-year austerity program.

The IMF identified five main areas of achievable, short-and medium-term measures that would provide a framework for future reforms. According to Byblos Bank, this includes “reforming state-owned enterprises starting with the energy sector and improve delivery services without additional public financing [subsidies]; enhancing transparency and accountability by strengthening the governance, anti-corruption, and the anti-money laundering, and combating financing of terrorism frameworks; reforming public finances to ensure debt sustainability and to provide space for social spending and reconstruction; restructure the financial sector to restore confidence and support the recovery; as well as establishing a credible monetary and exchange rate system.”

The IMF had other recommendations regarding the sequence of reforms suggesting that the government move immediately on energy sector and public procurement laws and take steps to build credibility with the Lebanese people as well as international donors. The approval of a proactive 2022 national budget will send a strong signal that the government intends to move in the right direction as the bottom line remains the same: it’s up to the Lebanese Parliament and political leadership to take the necessary first steps on the pathway of reform.

 

Election Fever

There is no lack of candidates counting on support from the Sunni community, despite the urgings of former Prime Minister and Future Movement leader Saad Al Hariri to boycott the polls. Former prime ministers aside, a number of voices are already presenting themselves as the ideal fillers of this emerging political vacuum. Bahaa Al Hariri, Saad’s brother, has indicated that his party, Sawa Li Lubnan will field around 30 candidates in May without confirming if he will run himself.

There is no certainty that the coalition of the Free Patriotic Movement, Amal, Hezbollah, and Marada will maintain their Parliamentary majority as fissures are beginning to appear. In fact, opponents only need to win a minimum of 15 seats to deny the coalition the seats needed to capture the Parliamentary votes to name the President or to make changes to the constitution. That is one of the reasons observers fear a resurgence of intercommunal violence in which people would turn to their traditional sect leaders for protection rather than take the risk of voting for the opposition.

Despite the fact that the 2018 elections cost the Lebanese government some $54 million, Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced that $18m has been allocated for the 2022 elections. Embassies have been instructed to find local funding to support overseas voting for the Lebanese registered to vote in local centers. This measure is in addition to the solicitation of funds from various countries as well as the UN to support the facilitation of elections in Lebanon which includes everything from ballot processing to funding ISF-run security at polling stations, and travel allowances for election officials. It was with some surprise that Prime Minister Mikati acceded to President Aoun’s request that the Minister of the Interior prepare an analysis of the possibility of mega-centers to be incorporated the upcoming elections.

The drama of reform and the elections continues to build, as do the indicators of the postponement of either process. Lebanon continues to inch along on the backs of remittances and family transfers. Foreign officials come and go, giving the government the same message, but hope has to emerge locally, as the vacuum is continues to be deafening.

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans. The above image is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license. 

Lebanon Daily News Brief 02/22/2022

DAILY NEWS

Central Bank Under Fire For Obscuring Recipients of Commissions
Over the weekend reports broke out that Lebanon’s central bank charged commissions for commercial banks in the country when those banks were buying government securities, while the bulk of those commissions were ultimately received by a company controlled by Raja Salameh, the brother of the central bank governor, Riad. According to Reuters, “Four contracts between Banque du Liban (BDL) and a Lebanese commercial bank seen by Reuters, dated from 2004 to 2014, state that the bank entering into the contract agreed to pay 3/8 of 1% commission on purchases of government certificates of deposit worth millions of dollars. Such contracts were standard for commercial banks making such purchases at the time, two senior executives in the finance industry told Reuters. The contracts seen by Reuters make no reference to Forry Associates, a company controlled by Raja Salameh, brother of central bank governor Riad Salameh.”  [Reuters]

Parliament Extends Law Lifting Banking Secrecy On Public Accounts
Free Patriotic Movement MP and head of Parliament’s Finance and Budget Committee Ibrahim Kanaan requested that an unscheduled proposal be included on Parliament’s agenda yesterday, which resulted in the approved extension on the lifting of banking secrecy for public accounts in order to facilitate a forensic audit on the country’s central bank. The previous lifting of banking secrecy on public accounts expired in December of 2021. [L’Orient Today]

French FM To Visit Lebanon
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian indicated to Prime Minister Najib Miqati that he would visit Lebanon in early March, which was also confirmed by a French diplomatic source. According to Naharnet, “The visit’s aim is to press the government to move forward in reforms and also to seek tangible results in the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund,” as well as press the government to hold free and transparent elections. [Naharnet]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

 

Lebanon, The IMF, And The Parliamentary Elections – What’s The Story?
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, “The IMF identified five main areas of achievable, short- and medium-term measures that would provide a framework for future reforms. According to Byblos Bank, this includes ‘reforming state-owned enterprises starting with the energy sector and improve delivery services without additional public financing [subsidies]; enhancing transparency and accountability by strengthening the governance, anti-corruption, and the anti-money laundering, and combating financing of terrorism frameworks; reforming public finances to ensure debt sustainability and to provide space for social spending and reconstruction; restructure the financial sector to restore confidence and support the recovery; as well as establishing a credible monetary and exchange rate system.’ The IMF had other recommendations regarding the sequence of reforms suggesting that the government move immediately on energy sector and public procurement laws and take steps to build credibility with the Lebanese people as well as international donors. The approval of a proactive 2022 national budget will send a strong signal that the government intends to move in the right direction as the bottom line remains the same: it’s up to the Lebanese Parliament and political leadership to take the necessary first steps on the pathway of reform.”

Read More Here

 

Wilson Center, Viewpoints Series
Ukraine, Russia and the Arabs
Merissa Khurma

Khurma writes, “As the Russian-Ukraine crisis continues to dominate headlines globally, different corners of the world are watching closely, waiting to see whether Russia will invade or de-escalate. One of these corners, which has received less attention, is the Arab world. Akin to other regions, it will be impacted in more ways than one. First, the Arab region continues to be a theater for great power competition, particularly between Russia and the United States. Second, it is home to some of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, whose energy production future is affected by rising tensions and the outcome of the crisis. In addition, skyrocketing oil prices in recent days have impacted financial markets in the Arab states of the Gulf, where stocks moved in different directions in reaction to “geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe.” For energy importing countries such as Jordan and Lebanon, higher fuel prices are intrinsically linked to political anxiety at home. Third, many Arab countries will likely suffer food shortages if war erupts, as both Russia and the Ukraine are among their top sources of cereal imports.”

Read More Here

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

This Week In Lebanon: 2/20/22

February 20, 2022

Mikati Reassures Elections To Be Properly Funded And Held On Time, Megacenters To Be Discussed In Cabinet
In an interview with Al-Akhbar newspaper, Prime Minister Najib Mikati reassured that Lebanon’s upcoming parliamentary elections would be held on time, clarifying that the funds for the elections are nearly secured. Though he indicated that he would likely not be running in the upcoming elections as a candidate himself, he added that, “my bloc and I will will participate and we definitely won’t boycott.” [Naharnet]

Additionally, Mikati -at the request of President Michel Aoun- tasked the Minister of Interior and Municipalities Bassam Mawlawi with studying the subject of megacenters, potentially to be incorporated in the voting operations of the upcoming elections as well as in future polls. [MTV]

RESPONSE

“PM Mikati has rightly focused attention on the elections being held on time and with sufficient funding for measures that protect the integrity and transparency of the elections. It’s a shame the call for mega centers is being raised so late in the process with little chance of being established on time. The US can help by supporting civil society programs that promote citizen voting and by sponsoring international monitors and the ISF in protecting voting booths. PM Mikati should also call for independent counting of diaspora votes that should be held in confidence until election day. The US and its allies should sanction any individual found responsible for delaying the elections or otherwise tampering with the transparency and fairness of the election. “

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

Arrest Attempt on Riad Salameh Sparks Controversy, Judge Aoun Charges ISF Head With Obstruction; Lebanon: The Clock is Ticking for the World Bank’s Lake Qaraoun Project
The State Security Forces, headed by Major General Tony Saliba, conducted raids on Central Bank governor Riad Salameh’s office and residences but was unsuccessful in bringing Salameh in for questioning. Judge Ghada Aoun, who issued the subpoena against Salameh, “charged the director-general of the Internal Security Forces, Maj. Gen. Imad Othman, with obstructing the implementation of a judicial warrant and breaching the duties of his job,” following the reports that a standoff erupted between the Internal Security Forces who were assigned to protect Salameh’s residence and the State Security agents who were sent to enforce the subpoena. [L’Orient Today]

Meanwhile, speaking of corruption, Lebanon has been found to have squandered a $55 million World Bank Loan to improve the quality of the Litani River and Lake Qaraoun. Five years after the project was awarded, only a fraction of the money has been spent and the lake remains polluted, which is a health hazard to the local community. [Daraj]

RESPONSE
“Once  again Lebanon’s judiciary is being treated with impunity by the political elites. Regardless of the personalities involved, respect for the rule of law is a hallmark of any functioning state. Undermining the Beirut Port blast investigation, collusion between Riad Salameh and the ISF forces in  evading a court subpoena, and the egregious and illegal funneling of funds from World Bank projects to well-connected companies are just a few examples of how deeply the rot runs. It took 30 plus  years of state failure to get to this point. Multiple agreements, from the Taif Agreement up until this Parliament, have called for an independent judiciary. It is long past overdue that this becomes a reality.”

-ATFL Vice President for Policy Jean AbiNader

Lebanon Approves $18 Million to Hold May Election
On Tuesday, the Lebanese government earmarked $18 million for the country’s upcoming parliamentary elections. According to current ministers, the 2018 parliamentary elections cost the state $54 million. The international community has maintained that the May 15 elections must be on time, fair, free, and transparent. [Reuters]

RESPONSE

“Despite the fact that the last elections in 2018 cost $54 million, Prime Minister Mikati says that only $18.5 million is available for the May elections. Is he expecting the international community to bail out the Lebanese government once more? There are no monies for expatriate voting centers, just another step in dis-enfranchising overseas Lebanese. Expatriates are being asked to find funding for the overseas polling centers. Will the government also ask the depressed and poverty-stricken Lebanese public to pay to be able to vote? Despite negotiations with the UN and international donors to support elections, it is a shame that Lebanon cannot even stand on its own for the elections.”

-ATFL Vice President for Policy Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 02/18/2022

DAILY NEWS

Banks Threaten To Close If Salameh Arrested
According to Naharnet, “The main commercial banks in Lebanon have warned the relevant officials that they would shut down their operations and that their CEOs would leave Lebanon should Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh be arrested, informed sources said.” [Naharnet]

Reports of Israeli Warplane Fly Over in Beirut Following Hezbollah Drone Reconnaissance Flight
Witnesses and security sources reported loud sounds in Beirut thought to be caused by low-flying Israeli warplanes flying over the Lebanese capital. [Reuters] The incident followed reports of a 40-minute reconnaissance mission of a Hezbollah-operated drone that crossed into northern Israel, triggering air defenses and the scrambling of fighter jets. [Reuters]

Parliament Scheduled to Discuss Draft Budget – MP Kannan
Chairman of Parliament’s Finance and Budget Committee and Future Patriotic Movement MP Ibrahim Kanaan announced yesterday that the 2022 draft budget will be transferred to Parliament next week, following the confirmation from the Minister of Finance Youssef Khalil. Ibrahim Kanaan said that his committee disapproves of, “tax increases in the context of the economic and financial crisis.” The budget is expected to be presented before the Parliament on Monday and Tuesday. [L’Orient Today]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Lebanese Center for Policy Studies 
The US In The Middle East: One Year Into The Biden Administration – Interview with Paul Salem

Salem shares, “The problem has unfortunately been in Beirut—not in Paris or Washington. The support of international partners is there—it is simply that the governing oligarchy, and the governments that have been formed, including this one, that have not implemented any major or significant reform. It has become clear that even regarding serious matters, like the collapsing banking sector, the government has not done any of its homework to unleash the support that is out there. Moreover, I think there is a Lebanon-specific policy in the US that is not linked to Iran, nor to Israel or Syria. As you know, the US was very instrumental in trying to get electricity and gas to Lebanon, even if it went through Syria—thus requiring them to navigate their way around the Caesar Act. In conclusion, I would say that the support from the US and Europe to Lebanon is good. The problem is in the Lebanese government and the ruling class, who have not done anything serious to take advantage of it.”

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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 02/17/2020

DAILY NEWS

Ministry of Labor Launches Job Platform For Lebanese Workers
Minister of Labor Mustafa Bayram announced the launch of a digital platform targeting Lebanese citizens looking for job opportunities. According to L’Orient Today, “The platform, available on the ministry’s website and as a mobile application, connects job seekers to job offers and serves what Bayram described as ‘the prime part of the [Labor] Ministry’s mission, facilitating the employment of Lebanese workers.’ The labor minister said that the platform prevents companies seeking to hire Lebanese employees from “making excuses” about the unavailability of workers.” [L’Orient Today]

Nasrallah: Hezbollah Can Now Produce Drones, Precision Missiles
Secretary General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah said in a provocative speech that it has the ability to convert thousands of rockets into precision missiles and to produce drones from within Lebanon, without necessarily acquiring the weapons directly from Iran, adding, “whoever wants to buy them, submit an order.”  [Reuters]

President Aoun Denies Involvement In Salameh Subpoena
Lebanese President Michel Aoun denied his involvement in the raids on the office and residences of Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh that took place earlier this week. Aoun was responding to statements issued by the Future Movement accusing him of directing the subpoena against Salameh. [L’Orient Today]

Lebanese-Founded Shipping Company Offered Ten-Year Contract At Port of Beirut
The Lebanese government awarded the French container transportation and shipping company CMA CGM S.A. a ten-year contract to run the containers terminal at the Port of Beirut. As the third largest container shipping company in the world, CMA CGM chairman and CEO Rodolphe Saadé – a dual Lebanese-French citizen himself – said, “We will be launching shortly an ambitious investment plan that will transform Beirut port’s container terminal into a state-of-the-art facility that meets the best international standards.” [AP News]

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

The National
A Way For Lebanon To Break Away From Hezbollah’s Hold
Michael Young

Young writes, “the notion that there is a silver bullet to the Hezbollah problem is an illusion. There is no military option, nor is there a prospective political deal that can be reached, at least for now, that would initiate a process of military demobilisation, let alone make the party embrace Lebanon’s legitimate constitutional order. Rather, if solutions are to be found, they may have to be considered in the confines of Lebanon’s sectarian system. Hezbollah can overcome many obstacles, but it has no way of indefinitely flouting the unwritten rules of sectarian relations and the pluralism they generate. For a party that represents a segment of a community that is itself a minority in Lebanon, understanding these rules is necessary. The sectarian Lebanese system is one reason why it is absurd to assume that Hezbollah and its Shiite supporters will consider breaking with Iran. Iranian sway in Lebanon is here to stay for as long as it is anchored in one of the country’s leading communities. But by the same token so is the influence of the Sunni Arab states, particularly the Gulf states, who remain a point of reference for most Sunnis.” 

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L’Orient Today
A Quarter Of Lebanese Would Consider Voting For An Independent Figure In May’s Legislative Elections
Salah Hijazi

Hijazi writes, The survey also asks the Lebanese about their political priorities. Some 33.8 percent of respondents say that fighting corruption is the main issue for them, followed by the repatriation of illicit funds transferred abroad (13.5 percent) and the emergence of a new political class (13.3 percent). The disarmament of Hezbollah, one of the most divisive issues in Lebanese politics, comes only in seventh place, with 4.5 percent of respondents putting it at the top of their political priorities. In terms of foreign policy, 73.8 percent of respondents prioritize the resolution of conflicts between Lebanon and the Arab Gulf countries, with 38.4 percent of respondents also saying they trust Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy.  While this score is higher than that of Syria (20.8 percent), Iran (22.4 percent), the United States (30.6 percent) or even Turkey (28.6 percent), it remains far behind France, the international actor that, according to the survey, is trusted by the largest number of Lebanese (51.4 percent).

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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.