Lebanon Daily News Brief 05/31/2022


 

DAILY NEWS

Nabih Berri Re-Elected Speaker of Parliament for the 7th Time
In its inaugural session following the May 15th elections, the Lebanese parliament convened today and voted for its Speaker of Parliament. MP Nabih Berri, the head of the Shiite Amal Movement, was re-elected as Speaker of Parliament for the 7th time, a position he has held since 1992. AP News reports that,
in a reflection of the divisions and polarization in the new assembly, Tuesday’s session was characterized by tense back-and-forth shouting and arguing between Berri and indignant lawmakers.” [AP News]

Fitch Ratings Warns of Challenges to Progress on Reforms
On Friday, Fitch Ratings warned that the aftermath of the recent Lebanese Parliamentary elections may see hindered progress on the key financial reforms that are required of Lebanon in order to secure an agreement with the IMF, referencing the difficulty for any coalition to have a governing majority in the current political climate. On Friday the Lira reached 37,900 LL to 1 USD. [AP News]

French President Expected to Visit Lebanon Soon
As reported by Naharnet, citing Lebanon’s Central News Agency, the French President Emmanuel Macron, has recently informed one of his top aides in the Elysee’s special crisis cell for Lebanon that he intends to visit Beirut immediately after the June 19 French parliamentary elections, and after he carries out changes to his international affairs team . . . The French president has asked the Lebanon crisis cell to prepare for the visit, which he wants it to be decisive as to preventing Lebanon’s collapse and averting a possible presidential vacuum.” [Naharnet]

Beirut Airport Technicians Announce Strike
According to L’Orient Today, Beirut Airport technicians announced on Monday that they will go on strike from Wednesday, June 2 at 8 p.m. until Thursday, June 16 at 6 a.m. to protest the deterioration of their working conditions.” Based on the statement released, the technicians threatened an escalation if their demands for an improvement in working conditions are not met, but clarified that their services will not be suspended for the flights of ministers, search and rescue, or relief and urgent cases. [L’Orient Today]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Diwan, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
The Impending Void

Michael Young

Young writes, “Anyone who is anodyne enough to pass the filter of all the political parties will hit up against a Maronite Christian demand that the president must be representative of his or her community; and the commander is the single person, by virtue of the institution he leads, credible enough to be an exception to that rule. However, it is unclear whether Hezbollah would agree, given that the army played a decisive role in repulsing the deployment of Hezbollah and Amal gunmen around the Christian neighborhood of Ain al-Remmaneh last October. Where does this leave us? One thing that will help answer the question is that Lebanon’s social and economic catastrophe is reaching untenable levels . . . The Lebanese may be able to endure a great deal, but that fortitude is not open-ended.”

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

 

 

Lebanon Daily News Brief 05/27/2022

 

 

DAILY NEWS

Berri Sets Inaugural Parliamentary Session for Tuesday
Incumbent Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri scheduled the inaugural session of parliament following the May 15th elections for next Tuesday, May 31st. In this session, the elections of a new speaker, deputy speaker and the members of the Parliament Bureau are expected to take place. [Naharnet]

Lebanon’s National Human Rights Commission: Serious Torture Allegations Remain Uninvestigated
According to the
 Committee for the Prevention of Torture, of Lebanon’s National Human Rights Commission, “Lebanese judicial authorities still fail to investigate serious torture allegations made by victims.” The findings published by the CPT are based on five of the Committee’s visits to civil and military prisons and detention centers – Roumieh Prison being one of them – which the CPT describes as, “far from acceptable,” with respect to its conditions. [L’Orient Today]

Read The Full Report Here

Patients Left Unable to Pay for Healthcare Amid Lira Crash
According to Arab News, “Doctors, patients, and hospital owners, who protested in the vicinity of government ministries and the central bank in Hamra Street on Thursday, called for the dollar accounts of hospitals and doctors to be liberalized and warned that things were going to get worse.” [Arab News]

Telecom Minister, Executives Clarify New Tariffs
In a joint presentation, the Minister of Telecommunications, Johnny Corm – alongside Director General of Ogero, Imad Kreidieh, and the Chairmen of the two mobile operators, Alpha and Touch – clarified the approved changes to the telecom tariffs. As reported by L’Orient Today, Salem Itani, the chairman of Touch, said that, “the new rates will be calculated based on current prices in US dollars divided by three and then multiplied by the Sayrafa rate.” [L’Orient Today]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

The Policy Initiative
Lebanese Parliamentary Elections: Beyond The Results: How Did Alternative Groups Perform?

“The seats won by opposition candidates in the Lebanese parliamentary elections came as a shock to many. Despite alternative political groups having different political views, 13 opposition MPs have made it into parliament.”

The National
Lebanon Braces For A Drawn-Out Battle For The Presidency After Elections

Jamie Prentis
Prentis writes, “Along with the huge reforms needed to tackle this crisis, the task of electing the next president falls to Lebanon’s new parliament after nationwide elections on May 15. Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies — including the Free Patriotic Movement party that Mr. [Michel] Aoun founded — lost their parliamentary majority, while opponents gained ground. It also ushered in 13 anti-establishment MPs, many linked to the October 2019 nationwide protests against the incumbent political parties. If anything, those elections only hardened the divisions in the legislature which faces the more immediate tasks of electing its speaker and forming a government.”

This Week In Lebanon: 5/27/2022

May 27, 2022

PM Mikati Government Officially Enters Caretaker Status
The Lebanese Government under the leadership of Prime Minister Najib Mikati has entered into its ‘caretaker status’, following the May 15th Parliamentary Elections. Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun stated, “In accordance with Item 1 of Article 69 of the Constitution, related to the cases during which the government will be considered resigned, specifically sub-item ‘e’, and considering that the beginning of the term of the Parliament falls on [Sunday], the president thanks the prime minister and the ministers and asks that the cabinet continue in a caretaker capacity until a new government is formed.” [L’Orient Today]

RESPONSE

According to the International Monetary Fund, Lebanon will be bankrupt by no later than the first quarter of 2023 and, at this late stage, only an IMF deal can save the country.  In order to meet the offer stipulated in the staff agreement between the IMF and the government of PM Mikati, bold leadership is required of this caretaker government to pass a number of the prerequisite measures. Likewise, the new parliament must join in a coalition of those willing to pass the legislation necessary to solidifying the IMF deal. There is no time to waste. 

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

Lebanon’s Elections Promise Change and Reforms
Dale Gavlak analyzes the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons within the current political context following the recent Parliamentary elections in Lebanon. Gavlak makes note of the gains made by Lebanese Forces (LF), which won 19 Parliamentary seats, in contrast to the loss of seats by the Hezbollah-allied majority. Referencing the LF’s stance on the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons, Lebanon’s sovereignty, and the disarmament of all militias across the board, Gavlak situates the statements of LF Head Samir Geagea alongside other analytical perspectives – including from Hezbollah’s own Secretary General – questioning the feasibility and merit of addressing such a contentious issue amid the dire need for a more unified and effective Lebanese government to recover from the worst economic crisis since the Lebanese Civil War from 1975-1990. [VOA]

RESPONSE
Concerning the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons, herein lies the dilemma: where to start? Regarding the new parliament, what will their priorities be, and how will their agenda change depending on the election of the Speaker of Parliament, currently held by Hezbollah’s ally, Nabih Berri? There are no straight lines between winning an election and ruling in a coalition government. Coalition-building is desperately needed and, rather than addressing contentious issues that may undermine this process first, the new parliament would be better positioned by focusing on the essential work of rebuilding people’s livelihoods and trust. 

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Cabinet Approves Financial Recovery Plan
According to the financial recovery plan put forward by the Cabinet in their last official session as a fully empowered government on May 20th, the Lebanese government envisions, “canceling ‘a large part’ of the central bank’s foreign currency obligations to commercial banks and dissolving non-viable banks by November.” [Reuters]

RESPONSE

While a good first step years ago, this current version of the recovery plan leaves many holes that need filling before it can meet the needs of any banking sector reform. By adopting it just before entering caretaker status, the Council of Ministers have now put it on the agenda for discussion in Parliament, which has so far avoided taking actions that run afoul of the banks to which many MP’s have personal financial ties. This step is one worth airing, as it gives the incoming government a blueprint for moving forward on restoring fiscal stability in the country – whenever the new government gets formed, that is. 

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 05/26/2022

 

 

DAILY NEWS

 

 

 

Lebanese Lira Hits All-Time Low
Based on today’s reporting, the black market value of the Lebanese Lira against the US Dollar dropped to a record-low of 35,600 LL to 1 USD. In the last two weeks alone, the Lira dropped from 26,800 LL with petrol prices surging by almost 25 percent. [Al Jazeera]

 

 

 

Demonstrations and Sit-Ins Permeate Lebanese Capital
In Beirut today numerous disgruntled public sector employees and protesters conducted sit-ins and placed roadblocks around the Capital. Bakers, fuel truck drivers, and healthcare professionals, among others, also held protests. [The National]

 

 

 

US Special Envoy: Future of Iran Deal In Question
According to US Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley during testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, “We do not have a deal with Iran and prospects for reaching one are, at best, tenuous . . . To the extent that there is a disagreement in this room, it boils down to this: Are we better off reviving the nuclear deal and, in parallel, using all other tools at our disposal — diplomatic, economic and otherwise — to address Iran’s destabilizing policies? Or are we better off getting rid of the deal and banking on a policy of pressure alone to get Iran to accept more onerous nuclear constraints and curb its aggressive policies?” [Al Monitor]

 

 

 

UN Security Council Calls For Rapid Formation of Government
According to L’Orient Today, “the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday called in a unanimous statement for ‘the rapid formation of a new inclusive government’ in Lebanon after its parliamentary elections took place on May 15 . . . On Monday, the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that he was ‘impatiently awaiting the rapid formation of an inclusive government’.” [L’Orient Today]

 

 

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

 

 

 

Voice of America
Lebanon’s New Parliament Faces Problem of Hezbollah’s Weapons

Dale Gavlak
Gavlak writes, “Habib Malik of the Lebanese American University told VOA that he sees the anti-Hezbollah forces in the new parliament potentially taking on the controversial issue of Hezbollah’s insistence of keeping its weapons. ‘The unlawful arms of Hezbollah,’ he said. ‘This new parliament should never be used as a means to legitimize Hezbollah’s arms. That was one of their aims. And it’s not going to happen right now because there (are) enough votes to block that. Similarly, anti-Hezbollah MPs should get together to press for Lebanon’s neutrality. This weapon that Hezbollah wields all the time by accusing people right and left of being a Zionist agent whenever they did disagree with them—this accusation of treason needs to be pointed out as well.’ Recently, Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah tried to argue that with the many challenges engulfing Lebanon, including a finance meltdown and difficulties with food, medicine, and fuel supplies, he urged for ‘postponing’ discussion of Hezbollah’s weapons for a further two years.”

 

 

 

AP News
In Lebanon, A Nascent Reform Movement Faces Tough Road

Zeina Karam and Lujain Jo
Karam and Jo write, “The unexpectedly strong showing by civil society activists restored some hope among despairing Lebanese that change in their ailing country is possible. But the nascent reform movement is fragmented, and faces enormous challenges in fighting an entrenched ruling clique. Many worry the incoming parliament will exacerbate polarization and paralysis at a time when the country is dealing with one of the worst economic meltdowns in history. It is hobbled by divisions between the old guard and newcomers, as well as between supporters and opponents of the powerful militant group Hezbollah.”

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

 

 

 

Lebanon Daily News Brief 05/25/2022

 

 

DAILY NEWS

State Department Announces Sanctions Against Iranian Oil Smuggling, Money Laundering Network
According to a statement issued by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, “the United States is designating an international oil smuggling and money laundering network, led by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF) official Behnam Shahriyari and former IRGC-QF official Rostam Ghasemi, both of whom are designated persons.” The State Department’s designation identifies it as a terrorist network for facilitating the flow of hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian oil for Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Quds Force. [Al Arabiya]

Read the Full Statement Here

Social Affairs Ministry: Over 45,000 Households Received ESSN Assistance So Far
Launched in December of 2021, the World Bank-funded Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) – in which $246 million are earmarked to provide cash assistance to Lebanon’s most vulnerable households – is underway according to the Lebanese Ministry of Social Affairs, having issued cash assistance to at least 45,779 families. [L’Orient Today]

First Batch of French Buses Received by Lebanon
According to the Minister of Public Works and Transport Ali Hamieh, Lebanon has received fifty buses from the Government of France as part of a larger project of improving its transportation infrastructure. Should the initial ‘pilot’ program prove to be a success, more vehicles are expected to arrive from France. A third of the new buses will start connecting areas of greater Beirut in the coming weeks following this initial delivery, while the rest will serve the remainder of the country. [The National]

Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim: Lebanon Key Intermediary in US-Syrian Hostage Mediation
According to Lebanon’s Director General of General Security Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim, senior US officials met with the Major General in Washington to discuss the continuation of negotiations with Syria regarding the release of American hostages, including freelance journalist and former Marine Austin Tice. [The National]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Setting The Agenda: What’s Next In Lebanon?
Jean AbiNader
AbiNader writes, “It is far more logical to address the questions faced by the past unsuccessful governments and assess how new coalitions will orient themselves around the following issues: improvement of the electricity sector, banking reform, independence of the judiciary, anti-corruption measures, and the many other policies that must be seriously implemented and prevail in the country. Can the various opposition and independent groups generate a common platform that will draw the necessary votes for success? One would think that this should be a no-brainer, but then again, this is the Lebanese government  that we’re talking about. For example, most politicians agree that electricity reform and restructuring is needed but fault lines emerge over contracting, oversight, reporting, rate-setting, and other trivial points of contention that would be easier to solve if the new parliament and government just follow the steps that were outlined in legislation passed in March: independent monitors, a non-confessional electricity board, an independent body for setting rates and production issues, etc. The political will to act on these issues should now be less difficult to muster.”

AP News
Lebanon Currency Hits New Low After Vote, Crisis Deepens
“On Tuesday afternoon, the dollar was selling at 34,000 pounds on the black market, surpassing the 33,000 pounds to the dollar recorded in January. The Lebanese currency was pegged at 1,500 pounds to the dollar for 22 years until the crisis erupted in in October 2019. Since then, more than 80% of the population has been plunge into poverty, suffering acute shortages in electricity, medicine and other necessities as central bank reserves dry up. The crisis has also triggered the biggest wave of emigration since the 1975-90 civil war.”

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

 

 

Setting The Agenda: What’s Next In Lebanon?

Now that the elections are over, it is only natural to ask about emerging coalitions; the results are in, claims and conspiracies are being made, and Lebanon has yet to surmount this deteriorating economic crisis. Although there is little reliable demographic information available as to the gender, age, and geographic breakdowns of this year’s voter turnout, there is also very little disagreement over the fact that the hard work towards recovery must begin now. Voters seemed to have made that message clear given the results.

The only realistic claim regarding the speculation of emerging coalitions is that there will likely be shifting alliances based on issues, rather than solidified camps. So far, independents and the opposition from civil society have formed a bloc of fourteen, but where are the others? The truth is that it is still too early to tell.

For example, what will be the fate of the Lebanese Forces in the new Parliament? It seems self-evident that the Lebanese Forces should build a bloc on more than an ‘anti-Hezbollah militia’ platform. An ‘Anti-Hezbollah’s arms’ posture is too narrow a plank to sustain the myriad of pressing issues the country faces. Even within its own ranks, how will the interests of members returning from the previous government situate themselves in this new Parliament if those interests are addressed or not? Will the party use this time seeking payback or will more maneuvering be required of them to secure additional services for their constituents? There are still 60+ seats out there that represent constituencies whose major issues are hunger and corruption as well as the lack of access to bank accounts, health and social services. That’s why I believe that the “anti-” messaging will have to find room for additional positions on which to ground their platforms or Lebanon will be in gridlock.

It is far more logical to address the questions faced by the past unsuccessful governments and assess how new coalitions will orient themselves around the following issues: improvement of the electricity sector, banking reform, independence of the judiciary, anti-corruption measures, and the many other policies that must be seriously implemented and prevail in the country. Can the various opposition and independent groups generate a common platform that will draw the necessary votes for success? One would think that this should be a no-brainer, but then again, this is the Lebanese government  that we’re talking about.

For example, most politicians agree that electricity reform and restructuring is needed but fault lines emerge over contracting, oversight, reporting, rate-setting, and other trivial points of contention that would be easier to solve if the new parliament and government just follow the steps that were outlined in legislation passed in March: independent monitors, a non-confessional electricity board, an independent body for setting rates and production issues, etc. The political will to act on these issues should now be less difficult to muster.

Another immediate agenda item is the monetary and fiscal reforms required to stop the hemorrhaging of the currency, provide access to depositors’ accounts, begin banking sector restructuring, and bring stability and discipline to public spending and the foreign exchange rate. These reforms are also tied into measures that fit under the “anti-corruption” designation, which include public contracting, rules concerning privatization, recapturing illegally assigned public lands, and tracking abuses of capital controls.

You get the point – the national agenda is exceedingly long and there is no unanimity regarding priorities. I  therefore suggest select issues that coalitions can prioritize as they aggregate to elect the next speaker of the parliament. There is popular concern surrounding the electricity sector, capital controls, the protection of small depositors and access to their funds, and the commitment to a robust social safety net. These are all issues that will rally the public and can demonstrate to the people that the new Members of Parliament are concerned with getting Lebanon on the track to recovery and renewal.

After over thirty years of mismanagement, however, these steps will only just begin to make a difference. The key is building a government with the confidence and courage to enact reform and restore the public trust. So after the speaker is elected, what follows is the new government – selecting the prime minister and approving the council of ministers and their mission statement. This is all a prelude to the presidential election that will pose a dilemma if the choices of speaker and prime minister have been contentious. Lebanon is in a dilemma for the newly-elected parliament – how should it proceed in choosing the Speaker? Who will have the power to channel the process of nominating the Prime Minister, the cabinet, and eventually the President?

So Lebanon watchers should focus now on encouraging the parliament to build a reform agenda, electing a speaker committed to that platform, and advocating for similar commitments in the exercises to complement the government’s formation. Lebanon has the expertise and the will of the people on the side of reform, now is the time for the government to do what it has been elected to do: save Lebanon and serve its people well.

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 05/24/2022

 

 

DAILY NEWS

Association of Banks in Lebanon Rejects Cabinet’s Recovery Plan
The Association of Banks in Lebanon announced its rejection of the financial recovery plan that was put forward by the Lebanese Cabinet at the end of last week, just before the Government went into caretaker status. According to Reuters, “the Association of Banks in Lebanon said on Tuesday that the plan places the full losses of the country’s economic meltdown on depositors.” [Reuters]

Deir Ammar Power Plant Shuts Down
According to Electricité du Liban (EDL), “The stock of fuel at the Deir Ammar power plant, the only one currently operating, will be completely exhausted . . . This will lead to a mandatory shutdown of the plant from Tuesday morning. Only hydropower plants, whose production capacity does not exceed 100 megawatts, will remain operational.” The imported shipment of diesel fuel is expected to arrive May 25th. [L’Orient Today]

Healthcare Professionals to Strike Thursday, Friday
The Syndicates of Doctors of Lebanon in Beirut and the North as well as the Syndicate of Private Hospital Owners have called for a general strike on Thursday and Friday of this week, in which there will be a cessation of all non-emergency healthcare. The strike aims to address the shortage of medicines and medical supplies. [The961]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Setting The Agenda: What’s Next In Lebanon?
Jean AbiNader
AbiNader writes, “It is far more logical to address the questions faced by the past unsuccessful governments and assess how new coalitions will orient themselves around the following issues: improvement of the electricity sector, banking reform, independence of the judiciary, anti-corruption measures, and the many other policies that must be seriously implemented and prevail in the country. Can the various opposition and independent groups generate a common platform that will draw the necessary votes for success? One would think that this should be a no-brainer, but then again, this is the Lebanese government  that we’re talking about. For example, most politicians agree that electricity reform and restructuring is needed but fault lines emerge over contracting, oversight, reporting, rate-setting, and other trivial points of contention that would be easier to solve if the new parliament and government just follow the steps that were outlined in legislation passed in March: independent monitors, a non-confessional electricity board, an independent body for setting rates and production issues, etc. The political will to act on these issues should now be less difficult to muster.”

The National
Hurdles Ahead For Lebanon’s Presidential Candidates

Michael Young
Young writes, “Going into the election, many people identified two favourites, based largely on the fact that the main party that had to be satisfied was Hezbollah. The two candidates were Gebran Bassil, the son-in-law of President Michel Aoun and head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), and Suleiman Franjieh, a northern politician close to Syria and Hezbollah and the grandson of a previous Lebanese president with the same name. To different degrees, the election results damaged the prospects of both men. While Mr Bassil still has a large parliamentary bloc, his party lost ground in terms of seats won when compared to the results it obtained in the 2018 election. Now the largest Christian bloc is that of the Lebanese Forces, with the Bassil-led bloc coming in second.” 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

 

Lebanon Daily News Brief 05/23/22

 

 

DAILY NEWS

Cabinet Approves Financial Recovery Plan
According to the financial recovery plan passed by the Cabinet last Friday, the government of Lebanon envisions, “cancelling ‘a large part’ of the central bank’s foreign currency obligations to commercial banks and dissolving non-viable banks by November, according to a financial recovery plan passed by the Cabinet on Friday.” [Reuters] The plan also includes a comprehensive audit of the Central Bank’s forex financial standing by mid-summer of 2022 and the Cabinet also approved increased Telecom tariffs valued in Lebanese Liras. [L’Orient Today

PM Mikati Government Officially Enters Caretaker Status
Concluding their last official meeting last Friday, the government under the leadership of Prime Minister Najib Mikati – following the May 15th Parliamentary Elections – has entered into ‘caretaker status.’ In a statement issued by President Michel Aoun, “In accordance with Item 1 of Article 69 of the Constitution, related to the cases during which the government will be considered resigned, specifically sub-item ‘e’, and considering that the beginning of the term of the Parliament falls on [Sunday], the president thanks the prime minister and the ministers and asks that the cabinet continue in a caretaker capacity until a new government is formed.” [L’Orient Today]

Lebanese Government Lifts Concrete Barriers Previously Limiting Access to Parliament Building
Lebanon’s security forces eased restrictions on barriers limiting access to Beirut’s Nejmeh Square, the area in which the Lebanese Parliament is located, following last week’s elections. A number of new MP’s called for the restrictions to be eased before the first session of the new parliament, which has not been scheduled yet. The barricades have been in use since major protests erupted towards the end of 2019. [Reuters]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Diwan, Malcom H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Lebanon’s New Parliament: Cause for Cautious Optimism?

Issam Kayssi
Kayssi writes, “In the fall of 2019, it seemed that the Lebanese protest movement was leaderless—by choice. Indeed, it appeared as though the movement rejected the very notion of electing anyone to lead or represent it. Today, however, this same protest movement has elected to office several parliamentarians and given them a mandate to speak on its behalf. Whether these parliamentarians will prove able to steer the Mediterranean country in the right direction and lure back emigrés such as Michele and Nour remains to be seen.”

Middle East Eye
Lebanon Elections: Who Are The Major Winners And Losers?

AJ Naddaf
Naddaf writes, “Lebanon’s first elections since the country was devastated by its worst-ever economic crisis have unseated household names in Lebanese politics, shifted majority blocs, and yielded a surprising breakthrough for independents. Middle East Eye takes a look at some of the elections’ most notable winners and losers . . . In contrast with the 2018 elections, when only one independent candidate won a seat, 13 independents secured representation for the now-defunct anti-establishment protest movement that swept the country in 2019.”

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

This Week In Lebanon: 5/20/2022

 

 

May 20, 2022

Lebanon’s Pro-Hezbollah Bloc Loses Parliamentary Majority
Hezbollah lost a parliamentary majority and its allies also suffered losses across the country. This includes the Hezbollah-aligned Free Patriotic Movement, who were dethroned by the Lebanese Forces for status as the largest Christian party in parliament. 16 anti-establishment political newcomers and nine other anti-establishment candidates were elected, totaling 22 seats for pro-change representatives. However, the group has yet to form any kind of voting bloc. [Al Jazeera]

RESPONSE

“This could either be a historical turning point in remedying Lebanon’s political and economic collapse or another missed opportunity. The election outcome is surely a positive result for those who voted for reform and change. It serves as a reminder that the Lebanese people are determined to bring change to their country. However, elected officials must come together and create a viable coalition able to pass an IMF package and other reforms in the face of opposition from career politicians and political parties that profit from the status quo. While the task at hand is certainly a challenge, the Lebanese people have injected new momentum into parliament that will hopefully spur needed change.”

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

Lebanon’s Elections Promise Change and Reforms
The author here argues that the election outcome is positive, given that many reforms are badly needed in Lebanon. He notes that both reformists and anti-Hezbollah candidates one across the country, even making some surprising upsets against establishment politicians. Revitalizing democratic institutions in Lebanon are key to reform, he concludes. [Eurasia Review]

RESPONSE
“This cogent analysis discusses both the promise and the paradox of Lebanon’s election outcomes. Without diminishing the obfuscating role of the Hezbollah-Amal alliance, it points to the inherent challenges faced by the opposition, reformists, and anti-Hezbollah forces who must build a common platform of reform and revival. It is not enough to merely oppose; it is time to build. The Lebanese Forces, now the largest Christian party, and many reform-oriented former MPs, now re-elected, have the insights and experience to build common campaigns with the newcomers. They must act together to actually move Lebanon forward through the upcoming elections for Speaker of the Parliament, Council of Ministers, Prime Minister, and President. Let the coalition-building begin!”

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

US Holding up Energy Deal between Egypt and Lebanon: Ambassador
The World Bank-endorsed Levantine Energy Deal, which sees Egypt exporting energy supplies to Lebanon, is currently on pause while Egypt awaits confirmation from the US that sanctions will not be imposed. The deal involves transit fees for the Assad regime since the energy supplies would be transmitted through Syria. Under normal circumstances, this would trigger Cesar Act sanctions. While US officials have conveyed that sanctions would not be applied, Cairo remains unconvinced. A US official acknowledged that it was waiting for the commercial contracts to be finalized before offering any further assurances. [Al Arabiya]

RESPONSE

“Finger-pointing is not a useful posture in supplying critical gas and electricity supplies to Lebanon. Egypt is waiting on iron-clad guarantees that it will not be subjected to sanctions at any point. The US says it is waiting on final commercial agreements and financing steps to go ahead. What a mess. A serious senior person needs to intervene and take this in hand and move it quickly through the bureaucracies. There can be no more excuses for inaction on either side as Egypt’s posture seems disingenuous given the assurances over the past months. This just feeds into the opponents of the deal and keeps the Lebanese in the dark.”

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 05/20/2022

 

DAILY NEWS

US Treasury Sanctions Hezbollah-Affiliated Businessman, Several Associates and Related Companies
The US Department of Treasury announced its designation of Ahmad Jalal Reda Abdallah as a key financial facilitator of Hezbollah’s international financial system and also included five of his associates and eight affiliated companies in Lebanon and Iraq as part of the designation. According to the statement released, “This action illuminates Hezbollah’s modus operandi of using the cover of seemingly legitimate businesses to generate revenue and leverage commercial investments across a multitude of sectors to secretly fund Hezbollah and its terrorist activities.” [Al Arabiya English]

Eight Female MP’s Elected to the Lebanese Parliament
In this L’Orient Today article, eight recently-elected Members of Parliament are highlighted, reflecting a record number of female representation in Lebanon’s legislative body. “Ghada Ayoub is the incoming MP of the South I constituency for the Lebanese Forces . . . Nada Boustany is the incoming Free Patriotic Movement MP in the Mount Lebanon I constituency . . . Inaya Ezzedine is a former minister and an incumbent MP in the South II constituency for the Amal Movement . . . Sethrida Geagea is an incumbent MP in the North III constituency for the Lebanese Forces . . . Halima Qaqour is the incoming MP in the Mount Lebanon IV constituency for the Social Democrats . . . Najat Saliba is the incoming MP in the Mount Lebanon IV constituency for the independent movement Taqqadom . . . Paula Yacoubian is the incoming MP in the Beirut I constituency, running on the independent party Li Watani’s list . . . Cynthia Zarazir is the incoming MP of the Beirut I constituency, running on independent party Li Watani’s list.” [L’Orient Today]

Read More Here

Several Recently-Elected MP’s Voice Opposition to Berri as Speaker of Parliament
According to L’Orient Today, “A number of newly-elected opposition deputies have voiced their refusal to reelect Nabih Berri as Parliament speaker [including MP Waddah Sadek (Opposition/West Beirut),  MP Halimeh Kaakour (Opposition/Chouf),  MP Halimeh Kaakour (Opposition/Chouf), MP Fouad Makhzoumi (Independent/West Beirut), and MP Samir Geagea (Lebanese Forces/Bcherre).” [L’Orient Today]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Reuters
Lebanon’s Emboldened Opposition Goes From Protest To Parliament

Timour Azhari & Maya Gebeily
Azhari and Gebeily write, “Reform-minded candidates ran without the financial resources or staff of established factions but still won more than 200,0000 votes, second only to powerful armed group Hezbollah, gaining seats across Lebanon’s electoral districts and sects. It marked a significant break from politics-as-usual in Lebanon, where a handful of parties claiming to represent the country’s mosaic of religious sects have dominated politics since a 1975-90 civil war. ‘People can’t believe it… We are planting hope, and God willing, we will harvest change,’ said Kaakour, 46, and the only Sunni Muslim woman in parliament. Their wins weren’t the only surprises in Sunday’s poll. Shi’ite armed movement Hezbollah and its allies lost the majority they had won in 2018, while their opponents – the Christian Lebanese Forces party – made sizeable gains. Analysts say that could heighten sectarian tensions as the LF pushes for Hezbollah’s disarmament – but most new candidates say there are more pressing issues at hand.”

World Politics Review
Lebanon’s Elections Are A Pyrrhic Victory For The Corrupt Status Quo
Thanassis Cambanis
Cambanis writes, “Initial results show that no fewer than 10 anti-establishment candidates won seats in parliament. This wouldn’t be enough to create a sizable counter-establishment bloc in the 128-seat parliament, but it would be enough to give a real platform to many dissenting views. Hezbollah and its allies, which are collectively known as the March 8 bloc, lost ground, winning at least 61 seats, compared to 71 in the previous elections. Some of the candidates who won seats as independents will ally with either the March 8 bloc or its rival, the March 14 bloc. But it appears that neither side will control enough seats to select the speaker, setting the stage for the kind of drawn-out government formation negotiations that Lebanon is known for. As a result, despite the noteworthy gains by opposition figures and other political outsiders in Sunday’s vote, the rotten status-quo bargain that has driven Lebanon to ruin is likely to continue. The worst predations imaginable have pushed a small, relatively prosperous country into a financial abyss. Yet the first elections after a hellish three-year period that featured a popular revolution, an economic depression of historical proportions, and the deadly Beirut port explosion evidently was not enough to dislodge the ruling clique of warlords, organized crime bosses and bankers.”

The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies
Lebanon’s Ailing Power Sector: What is the Government’s Latest Electricity Plan?

Ali Taha

Taha writes, “A plan to reform and revive Lebanon’s ailing electricity sector has been approved by the Lebanese cabinet on 16 March 2022. The new proposal—which builds on the World Bank’s Lebanon Power Sector Emergency Action Plan, a “Least-Cost Generation Plan” from Électricité de France, and previous plans by the Lebanese Ministry of Energy and Water (MoEW)—sets the goal of 17 hours of electricity supply daily by 2023. Notably, it includes the establishment of an Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA), a longstanding demand by the World Bank and Western donors, the construction of new power plants, diversifying the energy mix towards affordable renewable sources, and the introduction of cost-reflective tariffs.”

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.