Lebanon Daily News Brief 6/30/2022

 

 

June 30th, 2022

DAILY NEWS

Qatar Announces LAF Salary Support of $60 Million
The government of Qatar has pledged $60 million to support the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), which will reportedly be used to support soldiers’ salaries. According to Aram Nerguizian of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, “it is the intention of the LAF to deploy the full amount of the Qatari grant to enable a $100 cost-of-living adjustment per LAF household over the next six-to-seven months.” [Reuters]

ISF Uncovers Warehouse Of Subsidized Flour In North Lebanon
Yesterday, the Lebanese Internal Security Forces (ISF), alongside the Ministry of Economy and Trade announced the discovery of an illegal warehouse containing 27 tons of subsidized flour. Located in Zahriye, Tripoli, one affiliate of the warehouse was arrested as the flour is suspected to have been accumulated there for the purpose of selling it on the black market at a higher cost. [The961]

World Bank Official: Lebanon Among Worst Food-Insecure Countries in Region
At a virtual event hosted by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) today, Haneen Sayed, Lead Specialist on Human Development and Social Protection at the World Bank, said that Lebanon is among the worst food-insecure countries in the Middle East and North Africa region, alongside Syria and Yemen. [Al-Monitor]

New Telecommunications Tariffs in Effect Tomorrow
According to L’Orient Today, “The new telecommunications prices come into effect Friday. That means all subscriptions must be paid in dollars using Banque Du Liban’s Sayrafa rate, which as of Thursday stands at LL25,200 to the dollar. In its final session before entering caretaker mode on May 20, Cabinet decided to increase the telecom tariffs for Ogero, Alfa and MTC starting 1 July.” [L’Orient Today

Lebanese Psychiatric Association: ‘Homosexuality Cannot Be Considered A Disease’, While Hezbollah & Amal Bloc Publicly Condemns Tolerance
Following last Saturday’s letter issued by the Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi to the General Directorate of General Security and the General Directorate of the Internal Security effectively banning gatherings that work to ‘promote homosexuality’, the Lebanese Psychiatric Association released a statement saying, “as psychiatrists, we would like to clarify that homosexuality cannot be considered a disease that requires treatment . . . [and encourage] respectful debate [without putting] the welfare and safety of individuals at stake.” [L’Orient Today] While the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc issued a public statement ‘rejecting any tolerance,’ a Lebanese human rights NGO issued a statement last Saturday stating, “[it is] perplexing why, in a country whose citizens have no electricity, no medication, no access to clean water, and no social security, and 30% unemployment the minister thought to prioritize LGBTQ events as the biggest threat to national security.” [Reuters]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

To Deal Or Not To Deal – The Maritime Boundary Negotiations
Adnan Nasser

Nasser writes, “Reports from international media indicate that Lebanon may be ready to consider compromising with Israel over resolution of the disputed areas to achieve a final deal over their shared maritime gas resources. The information was leaked to Reuters by three Lebanese officials with knowledge on the matter. American Senior Energy Advisor, Amos Hochstein is mediating on behalf of the United States since, technically, Israel and Lebanon are still at war and have not participated in direct negotiations that would bring about an acceptable settlement.”

Reuters
Analysis: Political And Banking Deadlock May Plunge Lebanon Deeper Into Crisis
Timour Azhari and Maya Gebeily

Azhari and Gebeily write,  Lebanon’s untamed financial crisis is gathering new menace as it heads into a fourth year, with political paralysis dampening hope of reforms that could unlock foreign support and stave off social turmoil, according to analysts, lawmakers and former officials. The emergency gripping the small country squeezed between Syria and Israel could snowball in the autumn if political rifts deprive the state of an executive authority to enact reforms or agree a deal with the IMF and donor countries, they said.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

 

To Deal Or Not To Deal – The Maritime Boundary Negotiations

Reports from international media indicate that Lebanon may be ready to consider compromising with Israel over resolution of the disputed areas to achieve a final deal over their shared maritime gas resources. The information was leaked to Reuters by three Lebanese officials with knowledge on the matter. American Senior Energy Advisor, Amos Hochstein is mediating on behalf of the United States since, technically, Israel and Lebanon are still at war and have not participated in direct negotiations that would bring about an acceptable settlement.  

In fact, on June 14, Hochstein was pictured with Ambassador Dorothy Shea and Lebanese President Michel Aoun discussing the details of where the final line should be drawn between the two states. The negotiations stalled last year, after Lebanon made a demand that expanded its claim by 1,400 sq kilometers, necessitating the restart of a proactive US role to mediate the negotiations. 

Tel Aviv’s position is that the commercially productive field called Karish is within its exclusive economic zone, while Lebanon’s position is that it is in contested waters and should be untouched  until the maritime border is completely delineated. A Greek-flagged vessel belonging to the London-based Energean (ENOG.L) arrived to develop a gas field in Karish, triggering Beirut’s objections. The Lebanese government invited Hochstein to Beirut in mid-June to revitalize the talks after it condemned the arrival of the ship.

The US Envoy described the situation as “delicate,” but felt reassured by a proposal presented from Lebanese President Michel Aoun, which expanded Lebanon’s claim to include the Qana field adjacent to Karish which would allow for both countries to have access to productive zones.  Lebanese leaders seem to be in unison on the issue, which Hochstein praised as reflecting their “serious efforts,” and desire to begin development of natural gas. 

However, the popularity of the deal is not as uniform as the government’s position makes it appear.

Two days before the Hochstein’s arrival, hundreds of people and several Lebanese lawmakers demonstrated in the south of Lebanon against surrendering the Karish field to Israel as part of a finalized deal.

In addition to meeting with the Cabinet of Ministers, Hochstein also had a separate meeting with a delegation of independent members of Parliament whose reform agenda is built on the initial demands of the October 17 protest movements. They expressed their dissatisfaction with President Aoun’s conceding Lebanon’s claim based on Line 29 and believe the caretaker government was wrong to forfeit Lebanon’s claim to it. They asked questions regarding the protection of Lebanon’s natural resources and benefits to the Lebanese people. MP Melhem Khalaf spoke on behalf of the group, saying the people invested their trust to have their rights served and honored. The discussion centered on the controversial Line 29 and the need to negotiate from a position of strength, and not make any decisions out of fear of Israeli threats.

To gain insight into the position of the Independent members, I spoke with MP Najat Saliba, who participated in the meeting,  who told me her view is that Line 29 should have never been given up. 

Firas Hamdan read a statement on behalf of 13 independent parliamentarians, most of whom were elected last month, where they expressed their refusal “to neglect Lebanon’s maritime resources, which belong to all Lebanese.”

President Aoun assured the MPs that Lebanon will reject intimidation from Israel and that they will have their opportunity to vote on any final deal in Parliament. 

The preservation of Lebanon’s sovereignty and natural wealth should not and must never be compromised for the sake of making a deal. Its leaders have a legal and moral responsibility to ensure all is being done to protect the nation’s vital wealth for the next generations to come. Only time will tell if that is the case. 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans. 

Correction: The line referring to Lebanon’s demand of expanding its territorial claim was corrected to 1,400 sq kilometers from 1,400 kilometers, as originally published on June 30, 2022. 

Lebanon Daily News Brief 06/29/2022

 

 

June 29th, 2022

DAILY NEWS

PM-Designate Presents New Cabinet Line-Up to President Aoun
According to reports from various TV stations, Prime Minister-Designate Najib Mikati presented an adjusted configuration of the cabinet to President Michel Aoun, which includes some changes to several ministerial positions. [Naharnet]

Group of Migrants Headed for Italy Rescued at Sea by EU Coast Guard, Brought to Greece
Last week, approximately sixty individuals bound for Italy, departing from the Northern coast of Lebanon, were rescued in the Eastern Mediterranean by the European Coast Guard. They were brought to Greece instead and were transferred to the local authorities. [L’Orient Today]

Israeli Defense Minister Claims Iranian-Affiliated Cyber Attack on UNIFIL Activities
According to Reuters, “In what he termed a first public disclosure of the incident, Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz said, ‘Iranian security institutions in cooperation with Hezbollah (recently) launched a cyber operation with the aim of stealing materials about UNIFIL activities and deployment in the area, for Hezbollah’s use . . . This is yet another direct attack by Iran and Hezbollah on Lebanese citizens and on Lebanon’s stability,’ he told a cyber conference at Tel Aviv University, without elaborating.” [Reuters]

BDL Staff Protests in Solidarity with Governor Riad Salameh
Yesterday, employees of Lebanon’s central bank staged an all-day protest against ‘the unjust situation against the central bank and its employees’ amid ongoing legal proceedings faced by its Governor, Riad Salameh, who has so far remained uncompliant with numerous legal requests related to two ongoing corruption investigations. [The National]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Why Mikati May Be Wasting His Time
Mohanad Hage Ali
Hage Ali writes, “After binding parliamentary consultations to choose Lebanon’s next prime minister, on June 23 Najib Mikati was once again tasked with forming a government. He currently heads a caretaker government, as, constitutionally, his government resigned following the country’s recent parliamentary elections. However, in the consultations, Mikati received the fewest number of votes than any other candidate for prime minister since 1990. Yet he submitted a government lineup on June 30, and remains hopeful—publicly rather than privately—about soon forming a new government, whose main task will be to govern during the period leading up to the presidential election in fall. The government formation process in Lebanon has become an arduous task, often taking many months in a deeply divided country. Mikati is hoping to avoid headaches by making a few changes to his caretaker government. However, if we are to judge by previous efforts, unless President Michel Aoun facilitates the formation process by not prioritizing the interests of his son in law Gebran Bassil, any hope for a quick conclusion is unrealistic, for several reasons.”

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

 

Lebanon Daily News Brief 06/28/2022

June 28th, 2022

 

 

DAILY NEWS

 

 

 

Deir Ammar Power Plant Set to Shut Down for Upcoming Technical Inspection
Yesterday, L’Orient Today reported that, “the power plant in Deir Ammar, North Lebanon, will shut down for five days for technical reasons, the state-owned power provider Électricité du Liban announced on Monday, as the country continues to suffer from severe power rationing, worsened by a now three-year-old economic crisis.” [L’Orient Today]

 

 

 

Delegation from the Arab League to Visit Lebanon
According to Caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants Abdallah Bou Habib, a delegation representing the Arab League will arrive in Beirut this Friday and will be accompanied by the body’s Secretary General, Ahmed Aboul Gheit. The delegation is expected to meet with the three presidents of the country. [Reuters]

 

 

 

ABL Affirms Unity in Statement
Following recently publicized disagreement among Lebanon’s key banking leaders over the staff agreement that was reached between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the government of Lebanon earlier this year, the Association of Banks in Lebanon (ABL) reiterated its ‘unified position’ on the necessity of reaching a deal with the Monetary Fund. [Reuters]

 

 

 

Showcase of All-Female Lebanese Dance Troupe
Especially following the recent, viral performance of the all-female Lebanese dance crew, Mayyas, on the hit reality-TV show ‘America’s Got Talent’, the group’s success is showcased in this article, which highlights their best performances going back to 2017. [The National

 

 

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

 

 

 

Al Jazeera
Desperate For Diaspora: Lebanon Begs For A Tourism Cash Injection
Kareem Chehayeb
Chehayeb writes, “Even before Lebanon’s economy started spiralling about three years ago, the authorities relied heavily on the country’s diaspora sending remittances from abroad to strengthen the economy . . . Now, more than three-quarters of the population lives in poverty. Last summer, many Lebanese living abroad brought suitcases of life-saving medicines and battery packs for families, friends, and charities when they came home for the summer, hoping to help soften the blow of the economic crisis. This summer, the cash the diaspora brings home will help people survive . . . With much of Lebanon’s population no longer trusting banks and relying on remittances to secure cash, some see a long-term opportunity to digitise and regenerate Lebanon’s financial sector.”

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

 

 

 

Lebanon Daily News Brief 06/27/2022

June 27th, 2022

 

 

DAILY NEWS

 

 

 

PM Mikati Holds Consultations with MPs, Blocs Amid ‘Urgent’ Need for Govn’t Formation
Today, Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati began his rounds of non-binding consultations with various parliamentary blocs regarding the formation of a new government. [Naharnet] While most Parliamentarians stressed the urgency of forming a new government amid Lebanon’s debilitating and worsening economic crisis, other MPs denounced any configuration of a ‘national-unity’ government, stressing instead the need for a ‘government made up of independents’. [L’Orient Today

 

 

 

Civil Servants Continue Strike, To Hold Sit-In Tomorrow
According to L’Orient Today, Public administration employees in Lebanon, who have been on an open strike since June 13, plan to hold a sit-in on Tuesday in front of the Port of Beirut, the state-run National News Agency reported Sunday. Civil servants are calling on the state to implement measures to help them cope with the economic crisis, predominantly through an increase in salaries.” [L’Orient Today]

 

 

 

Gallup Poll on Global ‘Emotional Temperature’: World’s Angriest Country is Lebanon
Based on figures published through Statista, Gallup’s Global Emotions poll observed that Lebanon is the world’s angriest country, followed closely by Turkey. The data used in the report came from surveys of 1000 individuals across over 100 countries, aged 15 and older, in which respondents were asked whether they had experienced anger in the past 24 hours, alone. In Lebanon, 49% of all respondents answered ‘yes’. [Statista]

 

 

 

Residential Building in Tripoli Collapses
Yesterday, a three-story residential building collapsed in Tripoli, possibly in relation to inclement weather conditions, killing one individual and injuring several others. [L’Orient Today]

 

 

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

 

 

 

The Jordan Times
How Foreign Powers Could Break Lebanon’s Gridlock
Jamal Ibrahim Haidar and Adeel Malik
Haidar and Malik write, “While foreign powers with interests in Lebanon often do voice support for reforms, they lack the proper incentives to back up their rhetoric with concrete action, because doing so would simply undercut their own influence in the country. Meanwhile, the Lebanese people have been left to suffer at the hands of an oppressive economic structure. In 2021, the country’s GDP was just $20.5 billion, down from $55 billion in 2018. With poverty rates soaring and the currency having lost 90 per cent of its value, the economy is teetering on the edge of collapse, and a humanitarian crisis is looming. It doesn’t have to be this way. If foreign stakeholders wanted to effect positive change within the country, they would have many tools for doing so. They could easily tie the hands of Lebanon’s political elites by applying existing laws in their home countries, and by leveraging their influence over global financial institutions to hold politically exposed persons (PEPs) in Lebanon to account . . . Coordinated action among strategic rivals is a tall order; but it is the only option. Lebanon’s institutional troubles cannot be wished away. The international community must reassess the costs of the country’s perverse political equilibrium, and Lebanon’s main foreign patrons must recognise that they ultimately share an interest in breaking the country’s institutional gridlock.”

 

 

 

Associated Press
In Lebanon, How To Say ‘I Do’ Sparks Fierce Debate
Mariam Fam and Bassem Mroue
Fam and Mroue write, “In Lebanon, an on-again, off-again debate over whether such civil marriages may be held inside the country, and for whom, is contentious and mired in religious and political entanglements . . . The issue has flared up anew after a few recently elected lawmakers raised their hands in approval when asked on television whether they would support “optional” civil marriage. That infuriated those insisting marriages must remain under religious authorities’ purview.”

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

 

 

 

 

Lebanon Daily News Brief 06/24/2022


 

June 24th, 2022

DAILY NEWS

Prime Minister Designate Expected to Meet With Parliamentary Blocs, MPs Next Week
According to L’Orient Today, Incumbent Najib Mikati, who was assigned as the prime minister-designate on Thursday after receiving a plurality of votes, is now tasked with forming the next government and will be carrying out consultations, starting Monday at the Parliament where he will be meeting with parliamentary blocs and members of Parliament according to the following program, the state-run National News Agency reported.” [L’Orient Today]

Lebanese Bankers Divided Over IMF Staff Agreement
In a statement yesterday, the Al Mawarid Bank announced its suspension of its membership with the Association of Banks in Lebanon (ABL), following a recent letter sent by the ABL disparaging the staff-level agreement brokered between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the government of Lebanon which seeks to address the country’s financial recovery. Bankers representing two other Lebanese banks also publicly shared their perspectives on the matter. [The National]

UK Court Orders Disclosure of Beneficiary Owner of Rhosus Ship in Beirut Port Explosion File
The High Court of Justice in London ordered Savaro Ltd., which is registered in the United Kingdom, to disclose the identity of its beneficiary owner in the matter of the Beirut Port Explosion, which occurred on August 4th, 2020 – killing over two hundred people and injuring several thousand. The UK court put forward this order against the chemical trading, shell company in order to ascertain who was exactly responsible for sending the ammonium nitrate material onboard the Rhosus. [Naharnet]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Lebanon’s Dilemma – Syrian Refugees Are Not Going Away
Jean AbiNader
AbiNader writes, “Despite misinformation claiming that Syrian refugees in Lebanon are better off than their Lebanese counterparts, in fact their deprivations exceed that of the Lebanese.  They share the same misery in inflated food costs which have now exceeded more than 400%, ‘while [the costs] of diesel for electricity and petrol for automobiles has skyrocketed. Bread and vegetable oil – two key staples in Levantine cuisine – have especially become more expensive because of both the country’s spiraling economic crisis and the war in Ukraine.’ While more than 75% of the Lebanese live below the poverty line, 90% of the refugees live in extreme poverty, according to the United Nations. As of April, the UN’s refugee agency in Lebanon has only been able to secure 13% of its $534m budget for the year. Yet, since 2015, over $9 billion in assistance has come from all over the world and international donors. Currently, the UN works with 15 international, 9 national, and 3 UN agencies on the ground. The latest surveys indicate that 97% are food insecure with many not buying enough food due to a drop in aid. The refugees are reporting that 72% are in debt and 57% have lost their income entirely, exceeding the high levels punishing Lebanese families. The story for the poor Lebanese and the Syrian refugees is similar. Whether it is comparing food insecurity, the lack of available health care and education, or human and civil rights abuses, both populations are suffering. Although the Lebanese have their homes, families, communities, and citizenship – which affords them some quality of life and access to support – they are all being deprived of their dignity and their hope.”

Read More Here

United States Institute of Peace
Amid Historic Crisis, Has A New Hope Emerged In Lebanon?

Adam Gallagher
Gallagher writes, “One reason some observers find hope in the election results is that Hezbollah and its allies lost their parliamentary majority. Hezbollah, a powerful Shia militia-cum-political party, has been an impediment to change — for example, they have sought to block inquiries into the Port of Beirut explosion — and source of foreign influence in Lebanon, as it is heavily backed by Iran and largely viewed as its proxy. With an electoral system designed to favor Lebanon’s powerholders, independents winnings 10% of the seats in parliament is “no joke,” said [Middle East Institute President Dr. Paul] Salem. Still, traditional parties hold 99 seats in parliament and will likely continue to dominate Lebanon’s politics. “Hezbollah still exists and, along with its allies in the country, are not known for their support for reform,” said [Director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute forNear East Policy David] Schenker. One example of the staying power of the old guard is Nabih Berri, who leads the Shia Amal party that is closely allied with Hezbollah. Berri has been re-elected as speaker of parliament, a position he’s held since 1992.” 

Washington Institute for Near East Policy
How To Avoid Another Lost Year For UNIFIL

David Schenker and Assaf Orion
Schenker and Orion write, “the UN Security Council will once again debate the renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate this summer before it expires August 31. Among other missions, the mandate defines UNIFIL’s role per Security Council Resolution 1701 (2006) as helping the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) ensure that the area south of the Litani River is “free of any armed personnel, assets, and weapons” other than those of the LAF and UNIFIL. This mission has never been fulfilled—in fact, the security situation in UNIFIL’s area of responsibility has degenerated since the last Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006, and its peacekeepers have curtailed their role under ongoing violent pressure from Hezbollah, whose military presence in the south now far exceeds its prewar levels. Absent a concerted U.S. effort to reengineer the force’s mandate and operational conduct, the security situation along the Israel-Lebanon border will continue to deteriorate, and the war that all parties seek to avoid will draw nearer.” 

Read More Here

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

 

This Week In Lebanon: 06/25/2022



 

June 25, 2022

Najib Mikati Named Prime Minister Designate
Forensic Audit Team to Arrive in Lebanon on June 27
Energy Crisis: A New Dawn for Lebanon

Najib Mikati Named Prime Minister Designate
After consultations between Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun and several Members of Parliament, Najib Mikati was named Prime Minister Designate by the President after serving the country as Caretaker Prime Minister for the last few weeks. This will be the third time in Lebanon’s history in which he will have been called upon to form a new government as Prime Minister. In public remarks, he said, “We have wasted enough time and lost many chances of support from brotherly and friendly countries whose stance has always been clear: ‘help yourselves so we can help you.'” [Reuters]

RESPONSE

During the past year, PM Mikati has been consistent in his efforts to push an IMF package forward, and rally support for the resolution of the maritime border issue and the Levantine energy deal. As PM Designate he must now prioritize one issue: securing support from the President Aoun, Speaker Berri, and parliament for bills that will facilitate a reform program with the IMF. This in turn will open up additional support from the international community. By accepting this assignment he must identify a coalition in parliament with whom he can implement these needed changes. If he and parliament fail to work together, history will not judge them kindly.

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

Forensic Audit Team to Arrive in Lebanon on June 27
US-based auditor Alvarez and Marsal (A&M) will send a team to Lebanon on June 27 to conduct a forensic audit of the Central Bank. This audit has been delayed and jumpstarted multiple times in recent years. The financial meltdown, which began in 2019, has depleted the currency by 90% and left a $70 million dollar gap in the financial system. It is considered Lebanon’s most dire crisis since the 15-year Civil War. [Reuters]

RESPONSE

At the core of Lebanon’s economic meltdown are the currency policies that the Central Bank promoted that involved acquiring foreign currencies from commercial banks to maintain the old exchange rate long after it had lost its relevance. A lot of finger-pointing is going on as to who is liable for the crash, resolution of the national debt, the steep decline in the value of the currency, and all the related disasters – inflation, the alleged disappearance of bank funds, and numerous charges of corruption. Hopefully this investigation, if transparent and unimpeded, can illuminate the scope of the illicit activity and point lawmakers in a clear direction on necessary reforms.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Energy Crisis: A New Dawn for Lebanon
Carole Nakhle notes that Lebanon’s energy and electricity mixes in large part come from imported petroleum, which fulfills over 90 percent of its needs. Addressing the current fuel crisis will involve multiple steps, she argues, which include: a comprehensive energy policy, turning away from politicians and towards energy experts for leadership, and tempering expectations about Lebanon’s oil and gas potential. Importantly, Nakhle notes, no commercial oil or gas discoveries have been made, thereby making any government strategizing around such discoveries premature. [LCPS]

RESPONSE

The author argues persuasively that the electricity reform plan approved on March 22 will be insufficient unless Lebanon develops an energy policy/strategy that ties together the political, legal, economic, and technical frameworks required to reform the power sector. The current plan needs to incorporate all of the diverse sources of energy being developed as well as production, transmission, and distribution policies for energy from multiple sources. The Parliament can make this work effectively, starting with an empowered monitoring board.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

 

 

 

Lebanon’s Dilemma – Syrian Refugees Are Not Going Away

Depending on whose numbers you reference, the estimated population of Syrian refugees in Lebanon varies from 900,000 to 1.5 million. At the May 2022 Brussels Conference for Supporting Syria and the Region, Lebanon again called for these refugees to return to Syria. According to the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (LCPS) “Earlier that month, it also formally announced to the UNHCR that the country can no longer host Syrian refugees, largely due to unfulfilled financial pledges and Lebanon’s ongoing and deep economic crisis.”

With areas of Syria increasingly under the control of the Assad government, some wonder why there has not been refugee resettlement in those pacified areas. The answers are political, humanitarian, and legal. International law on refugee resettlement provides three options: voluntary return, relocation to a third country, or integration into the host country.

Additionally, there are protections written into international law that limit refugees’ movement. They are generally not allowed to travel back to their home country. Refugee protection is granted on the presumption that it is unsafe to return. Going back would imply that the situation to Syria has improved and refugee status is not necessary anymore. This is the anomaly with Syrian refugees in Lebanon, some thousands of whom transit between Syria and Lebanon for family visits, emergencies, and other reasons.

Geographically, some of the safer areas are far away from Lebanon, creating even more challenges to a quick return scenario.

For refugee return, the basic condition is that any permanent return must be voluntary, safe, and dignified, incorporating a right-based approach based on secure passage, the return of property that can be legally identified, compensation for destruction or illegal transfer of property ownership, and the absence of penalties for fleeing, such as having to serve in the army.
In the case of Syrian refugees and others who fled war-ravaged areas, there is also the principle of non-refoulement, which says those who seek asylum may not be returned to a country in which there are reasonable grounds to believe they will be subjected to persecution.

Human Rights Watch, in one of its 2021 reports noted that, “Syrian refugees who voluntarily returned to Syria between 2017 and 2021 from Lebanon and Jordan faced grave human rights abuses and persecution at the hands of Syrian government and affiliated militias, including torture, extra-judicial killings, and kidnappings.”

Despite misinformation claiming that Syrian refugees in Lebanon are better off than their Lebanese counterparts, in fact their deprivations exceed that of the Lebanese.  They share the same misery in inflated food costs which have now exceeded more than 400%, “while [the costs] of diesel for electricity and petrol for automobiles has skyrocketed. Bread and vegetable oil – two key staples in Levantine cuisine – have especially become more expensive because of both the country’s spiraling economic crisis and the war in Ukraine.”

While more than 75% of the Lebanese live below the poverty line, 90% of the refugees live in extreme poverty, according to the United Nations. As of April, the UN’s refugee agency in Lebanon has only been able to secure 13% of its $534m budget for the year. Yet, since 2015, over $9 billion in assistance has come from all over the world and international donors. Currently, the UN works with 15 international, 9 national, and 3 UN agencies on the ground. The latest surveys indicate that 97% are food insecure with many not buying enough food due to a drop in aid. The refugees are reporting that 72% are in debt and 57% have lost their income entirely, exceeding the high levels punishing Lebanese families.

The story for the poor Lebanese and the Syrian refugees is similar. Whether it is comparing food insecurity, the lack of available health care and education, or human and civil rights abuses, both populations are suffering. Although the Lebanese have their homes, families, communities, and citizenship – which affords them some quality of life and access to support – they are all being deprived of their dignity and their hope.

Irrespective of one’s political stance, the unsustainable condition of the refugees and their impact on Lebanon is an indisputable and intolerable burden on the socio-economic environment. While the pressure from the Russia-Ukraine crisis intensifies and many more are being added to the worldwide refugee population, Lebanon cannot afford the distraction that has been created by the shoring up of the Ukrainian people. Hopefully, the Syrian refugee question will not be forgotten or ignored as the new government seeks to mold a bold plan for Lebanon’s future.

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 06/23/2022

 

 

June 23rd, 2022

DAILY NEWS

Najib Mikati Named Prime Minister Designate
After consultations between Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun and several Members of Parliament, Najib Mikati was named Prime Minister Designate by the President after serving the country as Caretaker Prime Minister for the last few weeks. This will be the third time in Lebanon’s history in which he will have been called upon to form a new government as Prime Minister. In public remarks, he said, “We have wasted enough time and lost many chances of support from brotherly and friendly countries whose stance has always been clear: ‘help yourselves so we can help you’.” [Reuters]

Deputy Speaker of Parliament on Maritime Boundary: Hochstein Has Communicated Lebanese Position to Israel
According to Deputy Speaker of Parliament Elias Bou Saab, US Senior Advisor for Energy Security Amos Hochstein has relayed Lebanon’s official proposal regarding the demarcation of its Southern maritime border with the Israeli government. Bou Saab indicated that a response is expected to return back to Lebanon via the US mediator next week. [Naharnet]

Fury, Three Arrests in Reaction to Video Depicting Violent Abuse Against Lebanese and Syrian Workers
According to Al Arabiya English, “videos showing a group of Lebanese and Syrian workers being assaulted and tortured by their employer in the Lebanese town of Majdel al-Aqoura sparked fury on Wednesday, according to local media reports . . .Videos of the incident stirred an uproar on social media with people demanding security forces launch an investigation and hold the perpetrators accountable.” [Al Arabiya English] Three of the five alleged assaulters were arrested. [L’Orient Today

Water Shortages Around Beirut, Mount Lebanon
According to L’Orient Today, “Water supplies in several areas of Beirut and Mount Lebanon have been interrupted due to ‘power shortages, major malfunctions and cable thefts,’ the Beirut and Mount Lebanon Water Establishment announced in a statement Thursday.” [L’Orient Today]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Lebanon’s Dilemma – Syrian Refugees Are Not Going Away
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, “Despite misinformation claiming that Syrian refugees in Lebanon are better off than their Lebanese counterparts, in fact their deprivations exceed that of the Lebanese.  They share the same misery in inflated food costs which have now exceeded more than 400%, ‘while [the costs] of diesel for electricity and petrol for automobiles has skyrocketed. Bread and vegetable oil – two key staples in Levantine cuisine – have especially become more expensive because of both the country’s spiraling economic crisis and the war in Ukraine.’ While more than 75% of the Lebanese live below the poverty line, 90% of the refugees live in extreme poverty, according to the United Nations. As of April, the UN’s refugee agency in Lebanon has only been able to secure 13% of its $534m budget for the year. Yet, since 2015, over $9 billion in assistance has come from all over the world and international donors. Currently, the UN works with 15 international, 9 national, and 3 UN agencies on the ground. The latest surveys indicate that 97% are food insecure with many not buying enough food due to a drop in aid. The refugees are reporting that 72% are in debt and 57% have lost their income entirely, exceeding the high levels punishing Lebanese families. The story for the poor Lebanese and the Syrian refugees is similar. Whether it is comparing food insecurity, the lack of available health care and education, or human and civil rights abuses, both populations are suffering. Although the Lebanese have their homes, families, communities, and citizenship – which affords them some quality of life and access to support – they are all being deprived of their dignity and their hope.”

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Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Politics of Lebanon’s Gas Deal With Egypt And Syria

Will Todman
Todman writes, “Even if this deal is fully implemented, most Lebanese homes will still endure 18 hours per day without government-supplied power. Also, the deal is a short-term fix that does little to address the corruption and dysfunction of Lebanon’s electricity sector. It will add to Lebanon’s debts, and it could actually ease pressures on the state to reform electricity supply. Still, many will welcome the additional electricity, especially during the hot summer months, and the gas burns cleaner than the diesel, which Lebanon’s power stations and generators otherwise rely on . . . The agreement is a win for the Assad government. The deal represents the first major move toward Syria’s economic integration with the region since Arab Spring protests shook Syria in March 2011, halting previous integration efforts. Although Syria will not receive direct payment, it will receive a portion of the gas, which will help the country tackle its own energy problems. Damascus will also gain the ability to shut off Lebanon’s gas supply, enhancing leverage over Beirut. Syria’s inclusion in the deal also confers legitimacy on Bashar al-Assad and represents a step towards Syria’s international rehabilitation.”

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 06/22/2022

 

June 22nd, 2022

 

 
DAILY NEWS

 

 

 

Caretaker PM Mikati Likely to Be Nominated as Prime Minister Again
According to a Reuters report, Caretaker Prime Minister of Lebanon Najib Mikati will likely be called upon by Lebanese President Michel Aoun to form a new government once again as the new Prime Minister. “If more parliamentarians back Mikati than any other candidate on Thursday, even if they do not comprise an absolute majority, then Aoun will name him to form a government.” [Reuters] Lebanon’s Former Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the UN, Nawaf Salam, is also in the running to be nominated as the next Prime Minister. [L’Orient Today

 

 

 

State Security Forces Raid BDL Governor’s Home
Today Lebanon’s State Security Forces conducted a raid on a home belonging to Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh in the town of Rabieh as part of an ongoing corruption investigation that is being conducted against him. Judge Ghada Aoun, the prosecutor who charged Salameh, among others, with illicit enrichment, participated in the raid. [The National

 

 

 

Forensic Audit Team to Arrive in Lebanon on June 27
A team from the US-based firm Alvarez and Marsal (A&M) is set to arrive in Lebanon on June 27 and begin its long-anticipated forensic audit of the country’s central bank, which has faced several ‘false starts.’ [Reuters]

 

 

 

High Tourism Summer Expected to Yield $3 Billion for Lebanese Economy
The Lebanese Minister of Tourism Walid Nassar said to reporters that, “This summer is promising. We expect more than a million tourists and an income of $3-3.5 billion during this summer season.” According to The 961, “Lebanon is expected to receive between 10,000 and 12,000 tourists per day and around 1 million tourists over the next few months, which will hopefully help revive the country’s economy.” [The 961]

 

 

 

OPINION & ANALYSIS

 

 

 

The Lebanese Center for Policy Studies
Energy Crisis: A New Dawn For Lebanon?

Carole Nakhle
Nakhle writes, “Lebanon’s energy and electricity mixes are largely dependent on imported petroleum, which covers more than 90 percent of the country’s needs. These imports also account for nearly 30 percent of Lebanon’s total merchandise imports, making it vulnerable to rising oil prices. However, it is the severity of the crisis that may force the government to pass desperately needed reforms, especially if accompanied by sufficient domestic and international pressure. In April, for instance, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that the Lebanese authorities, with IMF staff support, have formulated a comprehensive economic reform program in exchange for a four-year extended fund facility. If past experience is any guide, the risk of the program being derailed is high. However, the results of the parliamentary elections last May indicate a strong desire on the part of the electorate to challenge the existing establishment and change the status quo. The presence of more independents and representatives from the civil society among MPs can keep the government’s commitment to reform in check.”

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Reuters
Lebanon’s Bank Audi, Others, Disavow Banking Group’s Objection To IMF Plan

Timour Azhari and Maya Gebeily
Azhari and Gebeily write, “The two banks, as well as bankers from two other members of the Association of Banks in Lebanon (ABL) who asked to speak anonymously due to the sensitivity of the matter, said they were not aware the letter was being sent on ABL’s behalf . . . Their objection to the letter’s contents reveals growing fissures in the association, which counts more than 50 banks as members . . . An ABL spokesperson confirmed the letter had been sent on behalf of the association but did not immediately respond to questions on how the decision to send it was taken.”

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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.