Restarting Lebanon’s Reconstruction

The US and International partners invested in the Lebanon file are frequently frustrated by two entwined challenges: where to begin with corruption and how to deal with Hezbollah. Perhaps part of the difficulty is trying to find separate solutions for these problems. We have the IMF package of reforms, which can’t pass through Parliament without the Speaker’s active blessing, on the one hand, and we have the lack of a way forward regarding Hezbollah without a functioning government to be a party to an agreement.

So it comes back to the same reality. As stated by a candidate for President, recently in the US, “Hezbollah took advantage of the corruption in Lebanon to build themselves into a political and military force.” So let’s reframe the approach and think of solutions that will work on both the issue of government reform and Hezbollah’s militarism simultaneously. Any clear analyst will then lay the challenge at­­­ Parliament’s leadership given their pivotal role, but then again, reality intervenes and reminds us that it was the agreement with the FPM that solidified Hezbollah’s legitimacy in the Lebanese government. So where do we look for solutions?

A friend in Lebanon with close ties to civil society points to these possible signposts. The Constitution as amended by the Taif Agreement has most of the steps required to reset the governing formula: two houses of Parliament, with open elections for the lower house and a sectarian upper house; decentralization of power between a centralized government with extensive, effective decentralization to the municipalities; an independent judiciary with appointments recommended to the president by an impartial board; appointments to merit-based senior civil service posts; and appointments to ministers who meet relevant professional criteria including knowledge and expertise in the ministry’s particular functions. He recommends that Lebanon start by implementing Taif and the constitution. No debate needed. They are already law.

A major conundrum is incentivizing the political leadership to take a radically different approach to governance which depends on the willingness of the international community to be proactive with its sticks (sanctions, etc.) and carrots. Civil society has the strength to pressure Parliament. The upcoming May Municipal elections are a start. Again, Parliament has passed most of the legislation needed to deal with corruption, from a whistle-blower protection law to lifting banking secrecy for investigations and a process for monitoring and auditing government spending. All of the tools are actually there, ready for an empowered Parliament. So why are they not employed?

The answer appears obvious. Iran is the catalyst for the erosion of democracy in Lebanon. Once it joined the great game through the penetration of God’s party (Hezb’ Allah) by the IRGC in the 80s, Hezbollah has become a convenient pawn in Iran’s power projection in the wider region. Strengthening its military capabilities fighting Israel and proving to be an extremely capable armed force in Syria – even accused of extending its reach into Asia, the Americas, Africa, and Yemen.

So is it possible, the argument goes, for the international community to close ranks and negotiate with Iran on its dramatically reducing its support for malign actors, rather than its nuclear development– something that does not threaten the national pride of the Iranian government? These friends of Lebanon should insist on two conditions: closing the borders to smuggling and ending armed provocations. The LAF on numerous occasions has identified the transit points for drugs and how they can be interdicted. Successful negotiating with Iran can remove the bulk of Hezbollah’s financial support, while also cutting out smuggling and drug trafficking internationally. Working with countries in Africa and Latin America, the drug trade can be halted and millions of dollars in illicit money can be erased from Hezbollah’s treasury.

Over time, this can also set a pattern for resolving issues with Iraq and Syria, even if the Assad regime prefers coercion rather than compromise. Assad relies on Russia and Iran for his survival, so all regional actors will likely remain involved, including Turkey. Its presence in Syria along its Southeastern border along with the 3.5 million Syrian refugees make Ankara a significant stakeholder in changing regional dynamics.

In this scenario of bypassing Hezbollah and negotiating with Iran, ratcheting up effective counter-smuggling on Lebanon’s borders, the seeds can be planted for more intense negotiations for repatriation of Syrian refugees to safe zones that can overlap with investment parks that rebuild refugees’ lives and not Assad’s brutal regime, it is proposed.

In the meantime, emphasizing decentralization can have several blessings if it’s navigated properly. New political leadership may emerge to challenge the current narrative of clientelism in Parliament. Services can be restored as local co-ops form to provide energy, water, waste treatment, and health services. The tax base of Lebanon will be based on actual, factual, and measurable monies, and employment will spread broadly through the population to include youth, women, and those who need upskilling.

This scenario is not a fantasy. It is an achievable reality. The task as defined requires a rethink of the US and international policy vis-a-vis Iran, and may set guidelines for dealing with Russia once the destructive encounter with Ukraine has ended. It is within the grasp of all actors. The major powers get satisfaction and Lebanon as well as the region get another chance at peace and prosperity.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

The United States Can Prevent Lebanon’s Collapse

Shortly before the December holidays, Senators Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Jim Risch (R-NJ), chair and ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, delivered a straightforward message to Lebanon’s leaders: make progress or face sanctions.

After making multiple trips to the country last year, including one with congressional staff, it is clear that the United States continues to have a vital leadership role to play in not only helping Lebanon recover from this historic crisis, but also rebuilding its foundation to become a country with transparent and reform-oriented political and financial leadership. There is an overwhelming consensus in the policymaking community, reflected in the senators’ letter and a policy brief authored by twenty leading U.S.-Lebanon policy experts, that there needs to be a new international framework to incentivize better governance in Lebanon. The United States needs to lead such an effort now because Lebanon is on the precipice of failure.

The priority for Lebanon’s elected leaders and political parties is the election of a reform-oriented and corruption-free president committed to addressing the needs of the people. This needs to be followed with the timely formation of an effective government. Lebanon has been without a president since Halloween. The United States needs to use all tools at its disposal, as the Senate letter calls for, to pressure Lebanon’s leaders to elect a president and form a government that can usher in the reforms the country so desperately needs. There is no time to waste.

The suffering of the Lebanese people is a tragic consequence of the corruption of Lebanon’s financial and political elite who benefitted from a Ponzi Scheme that has rendered the country’s currency valueless and triggered a crisis in the banking sector. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s elected leaders have delayed implementing reforms outlined in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement, which are necessary for unlocking IMF support to rehabilitate the country’s economy. The United States has made it clear that the IMF package is essential for both Lebanon’s socioeconomic recovery and future support from the United States and international community. As a result of this crisis, 80 percent of Lebanon’s population of 6.5 million residents and refugees live below the poverty level. The country’s education and healthcare sectors are being neglected at all levels. The largest university in Lebanon, Lebanese University, doesn’t even have paper to administer exams. As Lebanon drifts into failed state status there is a strong chance the United States will be dragged further into a protracted and increasingly difficult task to protect U.S. interests in the region and counter increasing encroachment from Russia and Iran.

Electricity reform is an area where the United States can show leadership that concretely affects millions of Lebanese. Right now, the Lebanese people are only receiving about one to two hours of electricity per day due to corruption and incompetence in the electricity sector. Without this vital source of power, economic stability will be impossible, and the lives of the Lebanese will deteriorate.

The Levantine Energy Deal, which would see Egyptian gas and Jordanian electricity imported to Lebanon, is a major solution promoted by the United States. Lebanon has an equally important role to play as the Ministry of Energy needs to recruit a politically-neutral Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) and propose a sustainable cost recovery program as necessary conditions for World Bank support for the project. This is all the more important because Iran has approached Lebanon with an offer of a “gift” of fuel for Lebanese power plants to avoid the complication of sanctions.

Support for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) continues to be one of the strongest bipartisan pillars of support for the United States in the Middle East. Given the depleting salaries of the soldiers due to the country’s economic crisis, the one-time livelihood support the United States is providing to military families in the LAF and Internal Security Forces (ISF) in Lebanon is crucial and comes hand in hand with encouraging U.S. allies to continue their support. Consistent support for the LAF is essential if Lebanon is to control its own security and protect its territorial integrity against both its own enemies and those of the United States.

The United States has recently shown its indispensable leadership in facilitating the maritime boundary agreement between Lebanon and Israel, thus avoiding the threat of another war. The United States will need to show the same determination in leading the international community, especially its partners in Europe and the Gulf, in pressuring Lebanon’s elected leaders to elect a president who is clean, capable, and willing to institute needed reforms that address Lebanon’s needs. If the United States can prioritize the Lebanon response now, it can avoid further deterioration which will only result in a more-costly price to be paid later.

Edward M. Gabriel is president of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a leadership organization of Americans of Lebanese descent, and former U.S. Ambassador to Morocco.

Image: Shutterstock via the National Interest.

Read Full Article Here.

Who Needs An Exchange Rate? I’ve Got Several!

Trying to fathom the exchange rate universe in Lebanon is simply a nightmare. This LBC International articleoutlines the five different exchange rates that the consumer faces every day. And this doesn’t include the array of black market rates reflecting the latest subsidies — or lack thereof – provided by the government. The most obvious impact has been on the cost of living where shoppers and merchants alike pine for the old days of 8 Lira to 1 USD. Beirut has the official honor of being the most expensive city in the Arab world, over 150 points higher than Dubai.

Hold your breath. The rate is at 40,000:1. Now exhale, it’s at 50,000:1. Better pay for education and health services in advance of the next shake up in the rate. According to Numbeo, which compiled the global cost of living index, the cost of living in Beirut is higher than in about 91% of the cities covered. The index is an indicator of the prices of consumer goods, transportation, and utilities. New York City is the baseline for the index, and the cost of consumer goods in Beirut is 19.7% lower than in NYC, taking into account groceries, meals, and drinks. Only the Gulf States have higher rent costs in the Middle East. Groceries are slightly less expensive than New York, but that’s when you exclude transportation. Only the UAE and Qatar are more expensive when it comes to meals and drinks.

For those living in poverty, these number have little meaning as over half of the population in Lebanon struggles to feed their families and travel to work, let alone afford shelter. What these numbers point to, however, is the inability of the government to meet the needs of the people, as even the recently adopted national budget uses several different exchange rates – none of which hold up to scrutiny. For those who have managed to hold on to their savings, the BdL has made it even more confusing to withdraw money with their mystifying circulars scrambling the options even further. Limits are set for monthly withdrawals in either Dollars or Lira, and then changed. Rates for old Dollars (Bollars) and fresh Dollars (Lollars) are at the mercy of the government, banks, and big business.

Meanwhile, brain drain and irregular immigration (via boats, mainly) continue to increase exponentially as people are left increasingly tired and fed up. According to the Byblos Bank Economic Research and Analysis group, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 179.8% in the first 11 months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 –starkly up 142% year to year in November alone – which is the 29th triple-digit increase since July 2020.

There are a number of factors driving the increase in the cost of living on top of the exchange rates, which are invisible taxes on the consumer. Furnishings and household equipment lead the list followed by foodstuffs and transportation. Those who were least affected lived in the Bekaa between October and November 2022.

With this disarray in the currency value and the continued inflation, it is no surprise that migration is increasing. The Jerusalem Post opines, ‘Financial collapse has caused the number of emigrants to increase by 450% in just one year, with many professionals and young people hoping for a better life elsewhere.” This is across all sectors, relevant to both private and public employees. The Arab Youth Report notes that 90% of Lebanon’s young people have indicated that they have thought about or are actively seeking immigration, the highest ratio in the Arab world. Similarly, a Gallup poll from December 2021 found that 63% of Lebanese still in the country say they want to leave forever.

The Post article further points out that “Lebanon is already one of the countries that is home to the highest proportion of elderly in the region. This new exodus will lower the birth rate and raise the average age of the population even more while falling productivity and job options impact the economy.”

It is difficult to project how this exodus will affect the future prospects for Lebanon’s recovery and revival. With a government structure unable to make efforts to reform internally and few outlets for constructive interaction with the Lebanese people, tinkering will hardly make a difference. It’s now time to embrace a radical shift in the governing equation based on a national commitment to dignity, justice, and freedom.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon’s Former Speaker Of Parliament Has Died. What Was His Legacy?

On January 11th, former Lebanese parliament speaker Hussein Al Husseini died of severe influenza at age 86 in Beirut. Without exaggeration, his political life and career were impressive in their effect on the country’s future. When informing the public of Mr. Husseini’s death, Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, declared “today Lebanon has lost an authentic national and constitutional figure,” announcing three days of national mourning. His successor, Speaker Nabih Berri has suspended a convening of parliament on the presidential election Jan 19.

During his premiership, he contributed heavily in brokering an end to the bloodshed between Lebanese through the much debated Taif Agreement, giving him the nickname in some circles, the “godfather” of Taif. It was secured in 1990 by all the major warlords of the conflict in Taif in Saudi Arabia.

Husseini himself entered national politics at 35 when he was elected to parliament in 1972. Before that, he was elected mayor of his hometown of Shmistar in the Bekaa Valley at 18. What really made him a household name for many Lebanese was his involvement with the predominantly Shia political party Amal (hope). In 1973, he co-founded the Amal Movement alongside the scholar and charismatic figure Imam Musa Sadr, who was its first leader. Eventually, Husseini took up the helm of Amal after the disappearance of Imam Sadr and his comrades, Sheikh Muhammad Yaacoub and journalist Abbas Badreddine, when they traveled to Libya in 1978 to meet with then Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. No conclusion was ever formalized as to their ends. However, it is generally accepted the late Libyan dictator ordered their deaths.

By this time, Lebanon’s civil war was still ravaging the country and Husseini was Secretary General of Amal. His refusal to immerse the party in the bloodshed between fellow Lebanese forced him to resign from the position in 1980. Without him as head, Amal joined the war alongside other militias, including the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). He was replaced by Nabih Berri as the party’s top leader. Husseini would later be elected as speaker of the parliament in October 1984, a position reserved for the Lebanese Shia sect in the power sharing model agreed upon by its founders in 1943 through the unwritten “national pact.” He remained in the role of speaker until October 1992. Once again, he was replaced by Nabih Berri, a favorite of Syria, who by this time, possessed tens of thousands of soldiers in Lebanon with the legal cover of the Taif Agreement. Husseini was under significant pressure to permit then Saudi sponsored Prime Minister-elect Rafik Hariri to expropriate private property in downtown Beirut from Lebanese citizens for his (Solidere) reconstruction efforts. Husseini refused, thus reducing his role in public life, it wasn’t his final stance. In 2008, he resigned from his seat in parliament in objection to the Doha agreement that forced all parties to form a National Unity government which he lacked confidence it would satisfy the required needs to rescue Lebanon from corruption and sectarianism.

His political life was over. Still, he remained a voice calling for democracy and transparency in Lebanon. He was a man who stood on principle and sacrificed personal gain for his country. Something most Lebanese are unfamiliar with in the current political atmosphere. Husseini detested compromises at the expense of Lebanese independence and sovereignty. He possessed qualities of a natural almost idealist. Lebanese presidential candidate, Tracy Chamoun, described him as a man who belonged to an era of statesmen who had a vision and passion for Lebanon and who acted with integrity. The former speaker’s courage and honest nature gave him many admirers across Lebanon. His legacy is that of a true patriot on par with other historical Lebanese figures like Fouad Chehab, Gebran Tueni, and Charles Malik.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license. Subject to disclaimers. Attribution: FiveRupees at English Wikipedia.

From the Ground Up: Lebanon Heads Into 2023

Although there is no formal executive power and despite repeated warnings of imminent collapse, Lebanon continues into 2023 much as it departed last year. There are some hopeful signs, though. A reorganization of the exchange rate approaching reality, the impending investigation of several leaders for corruption, the continuation of humanitarian aid programs by international donors, and human-scale actions by Lebanese at home and abroad are all incremental albeit decisive signs that the Lebanese are not willing to agree to just fold up.

Although communities have yet to form a united front and a national vision, from the caretaker PM to the heads of the religious communities, there is an emerging consensus on adopting the reforms needed to free up the economy and enable some sense of normalcy to reemerge. The challenges remain and the willingness to mobilize remedies to reduce the hollowness of the state and its institutions are growing.

The Levantine Energy deal, the maritime demarcation agreement, the renewal of the Iraq oil exchange, and the posting of notices to engage professional supervision for the energy sector all point to some relief in the first quarter of the year. On the banking side, banks welcomed the freeing up of dollar to lira restrictions that allow a fairer exchange under less restrictive conditions. Perhaps this will enable the sector to become more service-oriented and less confrontational in dealing with the Central Bank’s dictums for depositors.

Overall, remittances are holding steady if not increasing marginally, signaling that expatriates are still supporting their families and maintaining their interests in the country. A story in the Arab News captures the mood of those who have had enough and don’t see any way out unless leadership, both in the government and in the private sector, can find a way to commit their energies to what’s best for the people.

On the other hand, the story of Lebanon rebuilding through meticulous steps with international partners, both raising a new generation of crafts people and symbolizing a rejection of cynicism, is one that well captures a physical restoration that lifts one’s spirit and hopes for the rest of 2023.

As we pointed out in our recent commentary on This Week In Lebanon, the scheduling of municipal elections for May 31 gives grassroots democracy another opportunity to show that ‘all politics is local,’ and that when faced with making the right choices about what can be effected on the local level, the Lebanese ought to think beyond individual interests. Decentralization can be a reality in Lebanon, if they want it and if they want to make it work through transparent, community-wide programs.

We were pleased to hear from Amazon that Nancy Zakhour’s new book, Elissa and the World of Olives, was added over the holidays. This follow her initial book “Elissa discovers…the Origin of the Alphabet” that we wrote about last year. At 24 pages, it’s about what I can handle at this time of year!

While Lebanon has yet to elect a President or adopt the IMF reforms, the institutions are still functioning although on a scale that does not yet point to recovery. Mobilizing the political will to take the necessary steps is a fully Lebanese decision. Its friends are willing to help but not without the buy in and leadership of the Lebanese themselves. As the ambassadors of the Group of Seven (Friends of Lebanon) remarked, “The unprecedented financial crisis and economic deterioration the country has experiences over the past three years raise serious questions as to the performance and commitment of decisions-makers to effect change.”

We are hopeful.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

This Week in Lebanon: 1/7/2023







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January 7th, 2022
 

Lebanon Enters 2023 Without a President
 
Following the expiration of former Lebanese President Michel Aoun’s six year term on October 31st, 2022, the position has yet to be filled, as the Lebanese Parliament has so far failed to elect a successor. Additionally, following the parliamentary elections that took place last May, the government – subsequently entering into caretaker status – headed by Prime Minister Najib Mikati, has also not been succeeded by an effective and fully empowered government, which requires an elected president, since last summer. 
 
“Lebanon starts the new year without a president.” by Hanna Davis. Axios. Read Article Here.

RESPONSE
 
At this point, the election of a new president should take the highest priority above all other issues in Lebanon. Without an elected, reform-minded president, all government actions and reforms remain at a standstill. The US should make clear their basic criteria is for a reformist president who is clean, determined, and capable of meeting the dire needs of the Lebanese people, and without such, future US aid could be in jeopardy.
 
-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

Minister of Interior Assures Upcoming Municipal Elections Will Not Be Postponed for a Second Time
Caretaker Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Bassam Mawlawi, publicized the Ministry’s intention to hold the postponed municipal elections – deciding the leadership for municipalities and the makhateer – on May 31st, 2023, after last year’s polling become postponed due to electricity supply and diaspora voting considerations, among other reasons. 

“Municipalities election to be held in May, Mawlawi says.” L’Orient Today. Read Article Here.

RESPONSE
 
Lebanon has so far failed to make a significant dent in the “business as usual” ethos that has left the country in total disarray. With the presidential and cabinet vacuums continuing along an indefinite time frame (indicators of the political malaise throttling the country), we should begin to consider looking to the local level for emerging agents of change and reform who can mobilize to challenge the status quo. These municipal elections can enable the people to speak directly and with a clear voice on issues that affect them on a daily basis. Their outcomes won’t bring back funds from overseas or unfreeze the bank vaults, but it will give them direct control over the basic transactions that affect their lives. 
 
-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader, jean.abinader@atfl.org.

French Armed Forces Minister Visits Lebanon on Behalf of President Macron

Sebastien Lecornu, the French Minister of the Armed Forces, under the direction of President Emmanuel Macron, visited Lebanon last week as part of an ongoing cooperation program between France and Lebanon to optimize the LAF’s capabilities and support the peacekeeping operations of the UN. Minister Lecornu visited the French contingent of UNIFIL in addition to holding meetings with Lebanese officials including Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, LAF Commander Joseph Aoun, and caretaker Minister of Defense Maurice Sleem.

“France pledges to strengthen military co-operation with Lebanon.” By Nada Maucourant Atallah. The National. Read Article Here.

RESPONSE

Support for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) is critical, now more than ever. The material and operational support from allies and friends – like the United States, France, Qatar, and others – must continue, and the multilateral support of the LAF speaks to how invested the US and its allies are in the future of Lebanon. This attentiveness to the stability and operational effectiveness of the LAF, however, is an incomplete foundation for Lebanon’s future. It is up to the political leaders to not take this international focus on Lebanon, especially from the Élysée Palace and the White House, for granted by squandering the opportunities to recover and move forward. The time is now to elect a president, form an effective government, enact the necessary financial reforms, and demonstrate to the Lebanese people that Lebanon’s leaders are equally invested in their future. 
 

-ATFL Research Associate James McLellan

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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

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Lebanon Daily News Brief 1/6/2023







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January 6th, 2023

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ATFL-MEI POLICY BRIEF & WEBINAR



On Thursday, January 19, ATFL and MEI will co-host a webinar where panelists will discuss the paper’s recommendations and identify areas of action for US policymakers at this crucial juncture in Lebanon’s history.

Register Here

The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the American Task Force on Lebanon (ATFL), with 20 co-authors, released the latest joint policy brief, “US-Lebanon Relations: Setting a New International Framework for a More Responsive Government.”

Read the Full Policy Brief Here

DAILY NEWS

Running Water Shortages in Beirut, Mount Lebanon
According to L’Orient Today, “Running water is completely cut off in the localities of Metn, the Beirut neighborhoods of Tallet el-Khayat and Bourj Abi Haidar, and in Bourj Hammoud at the northern entrance of the capital, the Beirut and Mount Lebanon Water Authority announced in a Friday statement. The cutoffs are reportedly due to a lack of electricity since midnight Wednesday.” [
L’Orient Today]

Minister of Interior Assures Upcoming Municipal Elections Will Not Be Postponed for a Second Time
Caretaker Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Bassam Mawlawi, publicized the Ministry’s intention to hold the postponed municipal elections – deciding the leadership for municipalities and the makhateer – on May 31st, 2023, after last year’s polling become postponed due to electricity supply and diaspora voting considerations, among other reasons.  [L’Orient Today]

Anchored Sea Vessels Awaiting Unload Costing Treasury Millions Amid Internal Fuel Dispute
According to LBC International, “Three unloaded vessels have been anchored at sea for ten days, awaiting written approval to unload and transfer the amount, costing the treasury millions due to political vendettas. From two weeks ago until today, we have witnessed a legal dispute over buying fuel for Électricité du Liban. The two parties are competing: the Caretaker Prime Minister and the Ministry of Finance on the one hand, and the Ministry of Energy on the other, amid disagreement as to whether the matter requires holding a cabinet session or can be passed by a decree to be settled later.” 
[LBCI]

French Armed Forces Minister Visited Lebanon on Behalf of President Macron
Sebastien Lecornu, the French Minister of the Armed Forces, under the direction of President Emmanuel Macron, visited Lebanon last week as part of an ongoing cooperation program between France and Lebanon to optimize the LAF’s capabilities and support the peacekeeping operations of the UN. Minister Lecornu visited the French contingent of UNIFIL in addition to holding meetings with Lebanese officials including Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, LAF Commander Joseph Aoun, and caretaker Minister of Defense Maurice Sleem. [
The National]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Arab Center Washington DC
Arab Opinion Index 2022

“The 2022 Arab Opinion Index is the eighth in a series of public opinion surveys across the Arab world conducted by Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in Doha, Qatar. The 2022 Arab Opinion Index is based on the findings from face-to-face interviews conducted between June and December 2022 with 33,300 individual respondents in 14 Arab countries: Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Tunisia. Sampling followed a randomized, stratified, multi-stage, self-weighted clustered approach, giving an overall margin of error between +/- 2 % and 3% for the individual country samples. The overall samples guarantee probability-proportional-to-size (PPS), ensuring fairness in the representation of various population segments. With an aggregate sample size of 33,300 respondents, the Arab Opinion Index remains the largest public opinion survey in the Arab world. The fieldwork was carried out by an overall team of 920 individuals, equally balanced by gender, who conducted 72,000 hours of face-to-face interviews. The team covered a total of 890,000 kilometers (approximately 553,000 miles) across the population clusters sampled.”

Read More Here

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

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Lebanon Daily News Brief 1/5/2023







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January 5th, 2023

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ATFL-MEI POLICY BRIEF & WEBINAR



On Thursday, January 19, ATFL and MEI will co-host a webinar where panelists will discuss the paper’s recommendations and identify areas of action for US policymakers at this crucial juncture in Lebanon’s history.

Register Here

The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the American Task Force on Lebanon (ATFL), with 20 co-authors, released the latest joint policy brief, “US-Lebanon Relations: Setting a New International Framework for a More Responsive Government.”

Read the Full Policy Brief Here

DAILY NEWS

Lebanese Military Tribunal Charges Seven Suspects in UNIFIL Attack
According to AP News, “Lebanon’s military tribunal on Thursday charged seven suspects in last month’s attack that killed an Irish peacekeeper when a group of armed local residents ambushed his convoy and opened fire, officials said.” 
[AP News]

Striking Judges Reportedly to Resume Work Gradually
According to L’Orient Today, “Having been on strike since mid-August 2022 to demand a readjustment of their salaries, Lebanese judges will resume their activities gradually, a source at the Judges’ Club confirmed Thursday to L’Orient-Le Jour. However, this source did not give a precise date for the judges’ resumption of work [following a general assembly on Dec. 28, which resulted in promises of new financial aid from the judges’ mutual fund — a decision endorsed by the Ministry of Finance].” [
L’Orient Today]

Families of Port Explosion Victims Threaten to Take ‘Severe Measures’ Next Week
According to L’Orient Today, “Gathered under the Statue of the Emigrant near the port of Beirut on Wednesday, approximately 30 relatives of the victims of the Aug. 4 blast threatened to take “severe measures” next week, while Lebanon’s investigation into the tragedy remains stalled due to political interference.” [
L’Orient Today]

International Dialogue Concerning Lebanese President Unconfirmed, Ongoing
According to Naharnet, “Paris attempts to help Lebanon elect a president are ongoing, diplomatic sources in Paris said, adding that they see no breakthrough on the horizon. The sources told al-Joumhouria newspaper, in remarks published Thursday, that there are no signs of a breakthrough in the presidential file in light of the existing divergence between the politicians.” 
[Naharnet]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Arab News
Power Struggle: Political Row Threatens Lebanon with Total Shutdown
Najia Houssari

Houssari writes, “Lebanon’s only functioning power plant has been shut down as a result of a worsening political dispute between caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and the rival Free Patriotic Movement, which controls the country’s energy ministry. The closure threatens to plunge Lebanon into almost complete darkness. Electricite du Liban, known as EDL, urged the authorities to solve the issue by opening the necessary credits to unload fuel ships after a row over advanced payments led to a delay in gas oil shipments. The company’s plea came as a shortage of gas oil, the fuel used to power the plants, forced it to shut down the Al-Zahrani site. EDL also said that about 6,000 tons of fuel left in the Deir Ammar power plant could only be used for general maintenance work for the installation’s steam turbine. A political source said that a settlement is unlikely amid the deepening political dispute, with further government paralysis and threats to other essential services a growing possibility. FPM ministers have overseen the Ministry of Energy since 2009.”

Read More Here

L’Orient Today
Can European Judges Investigate Riad Salameh in Lebanon?

Claude Assaf

Assaf writes, “European judges are slated to arrive in Beirut next week to investigate financial malpractice involving Banque du Liban (BDL) governor Riad Salameh. The scheduled visit is sparking controversy among local judicial circles. While some pundits consider the investigation to be legal in the sense that it falls within the framework of the United Nations Convention against Corruption — which Lebanon joined in 2009 — others deem it an encroachment on Lebanese sovereignty. The visit was announced by AFP last week via a judicial official who said delegations composed of prosecutors, investigating judges, and financial prosecutors from France, Germany, and Luxembourg, are scheduled to land in Beirut between Jan. 9 and 20, to investigate embarrassment, illicit enrichment, and money laundering claims. According to the same official, the competent authorities of the three countries have informed Lebanon’s chief prosecutor, Ghassan Oueidate, that the investigations will concern BDL officials and bank managers, in addition to Salameh. A source close to Oueidat’s office, who wished to remain anonymous, told L’Orient-Le Jour that the European magistrates’ initiative is in line with the mutual legal assistance decreed by the UN Convention.” 

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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

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Lebanon Daily News Brief 1/4/2023







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January 4th, 2023

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ATFL-MEI POLICY BRIEF & WEBINAR



On Thursday, January 19, ATFL and MEI will co-host a webinar where panelists will discuss the paper’s recommendations and identify areas of action for US policymakers at this crucial juncture in Lebanon’s history.

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The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the American Task Force on Lebanon (ATFL), with 20 co-authors, released the latest joint policy brief, “US-Lebanon Relations: Setting a New International Framework for a More Responsive Government.”

Read the Full Policy Brief Here

DAILY NEWS

US Ambassador to Lebanon Nominated to Deputy Representative of the US to the UN
Yesterday, President Biden announced key nominations for various positions to be confirmed by the Congress, including current US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, for the positions of Deputy Representative of the US to the United Nations. Naharnet reports that “According to Lebanon’s MTV, a successor to Shea as U.S. ambassador to Lebanon is yet to be appointed.”
 [Naharnet

European Investigators to Visit Lebanon This Month on Salameh File
According to Reuters, “European investigators will visit Lebanon in January as part of a cross-border probe into alleged fraud by Lebanese central bank governor Riad Salameh to the detriment of the Lebanese state, three judicial sources said. French, German and Luxembourg judicial officials and investigators will participate in the trip, which aims to move forward the corruption probe into Salameh first initiated by Swiss authorities in 2021.” 
[Reuters]

LAF, UN Peacekeepers Rescue 200 Migrants Departing Lebanon 
According to AP News, “Lebanon’s navy and U.N. peacekeepers on Saturday rescued more than 200 migrants from a boat sinking in the Mediterranean Sea hours after it left northern Lebanon’s coast, the military said in a statement. Two migrants were killed in the incident.” 
[AP News]

Al-Zahrani Power Plant Halts Operations Amid Fuel Shortages  
According to LBC International, “Lebanon’s only active power plant in al-Zahrani has halted operation due to gas and oil shortage, according to a statement issued on Wednesday by Électricité du Liban (EDL) . . . EDL clarified that its announcement is directly correlated with the fact that no fuel shipment arrived during December 2022, according to the Iraqi fuel exchange agreement signed between the states of Lebanon and Iraq.” [LBC]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Arab News
Lebanese Welcome 2023 as Concerns Grow Over Fate of Crisis-Hit Country
Najia Houssari

Houssari writes, “Millions of people across Lebanon gathered in markets, restaurants and nightlife venues on Saturday to welcome in the new year. But despite the good cheer and optimism, 2022 was a difficult time for most people in the country and the outlook for 2023 remains gloomy. Arab News spoke to intellectuals, academics and activists to get their views on what lies in store for the year ahead.”

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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

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Lebanon Daily News Brief 1/3/2022







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January 3rd, 2023

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ATFL-MEI POLICY BRIEF & WEBINAR



Today, the Middle East Institute (MEI) and the American Task Force on Lebanon (ATFL), with 20 co-authors, released the latest joint policy brief, “US-Lebanon Relations: Setting a New International Framework for a More Responsive Government.”

Read the Full Policy Brief Here

On January 19, ATFL and MEI will co-host a webinar where panelists will discuss the paper’s recommendations and identify areas of action for US policymakers at this crucial juncture in Lebanon’s history.

Register Here

DAILY NEWS

Delegation from Hezbollah Formally Visits Maronite Patriarch al-Rai
According to L’Orient Today, “A Hezbollah delegation called for ‘compromise’ on choosing Lebanon’s next president, following a meeting on Monday with Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai and as the country surpasses two months with no head of state.”
 [L’Orient Today] Hezbollah is considered to be a terrorist organization by the United States. 

Al Jadeed HQ Target of Armed Attack
According to L’Orient Today, “Unknown people fired bullets on the Al Jadeed television station in Beirut’s Moseitbeh neighborhood Friday morning, the station said, in the third such non-lethal attack this week following a controversial comedy sketch implying sexual relations between southern Lebanese women and foreign UNIFIL peacekeepers.” 
[L’Orient Today]

Sunni Grand Mufti Comments on Presidential Vacancy, Decries Threat to Muslims and Christians Alike
According to Naharnet, “Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Daryan on Tuesday called for ‘finalizing the presidential election as soon as possible,’ warning that ‘the country and citizens can no longer bear this vacuum that is destroying all of the state’s pillars . . . ‘Presidential vacuum is a rejected and dangerous thing and it threatens Muslims and Christians in their country that is built on the basis of the culture of citizenship and coexistence,’ the mufti warned.” 
[Naharnet]

Former Assistant Secretary of State Comments on Presidential Vacancy in Interview
According to L’Orient Today, “Former US Middle East diplomat David Schenker expects Lebanese Army commander Gen. Joseph Aoun to become the country’s next president ‘in the next three or four months,’ he told local news outlet Asas Media.”
 [L’Orient Today]

Issam Fares Institute of AUB Hosts Conference on Genocide, Political Violence
Last December, the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs (IFI) at the American University of Beirut (AUB) held a hybrid conference in collaboration with the Armenian General Benevolent Union Lebanon and Lepsius Haus Potsdam on the occasion of the International Day of Commemoration and Dignity of the Victims of the Crime of Genocide and of the Prevention of this Crime. IFI Executive Director Joseph Bahout said, This is the sixth conference that we hold around the same thematic of genocide, justice, memory, remembrance, reparation, and other very painful issues . . . we have started to build an intellectual and conceptual coherence around a very important theme, not only politically but intellectually and conceptually on how to think about past wounds and traumas, and how to treat them politically and historically . . . without [which], there can’t be a peaceful present nor a peaceful future.” [NNA]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Congressional Research Service
In Focus: United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
Carla Humud

Humud writes, “The Biden Administration’s FY2023 budget request states that UNIFIL’s ‘most effective functions, including its liaison mechanism and patrols along the Blue Line, will provide value even as Hizballah impedes the mission’s freedom of movement and restricts access, preventing full implementation of UNIFIL’s mandate.’ The August 2022 resolution reauthorizing UNIFIL’s mandate (UNSCR 2650) reiterated that, per the 1995 status of forces agreement between Lebanon and the United Nations, ‘UNIFIL does not require prior authorization or permission to undertake its mandated tasks and … is authorized to conduct its operation independently.’ The language reportedly is intended to counter what UNIFIL has described as ‘misinformation’ among some residents that UNIFIL is not authorized to patrol without the presence of the LAF. A 2020 U.N. Secretary-General assessment of UNIFIL (S/2020/473) stated that in some instances, the local population hindered UNIFIL patrols unless they were accompanied by the LAF. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah described the resolution as a ‘violation of Lebanese sovereignty.’ UNSCR 2650 also extended for an additional six months a provision contained in UNSCR 2591 (2021) authorizing UNIFIL to take ‘temporary and special measures’ to assist the LAF by providing food, fuel, medicine, and logistical support.”

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Fikra Forum, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
New Lebanon Opinion Poll Shows Continued Internal Dissatisfaction and Desire for International Partners

Frances McDonough

McDonough writes, A new public opinion poll of Lebanese citizens, commissioned by the Washington Institute and conducted by a regional commercial firm in November 2022, reaffirms ongoing frustrations amidst the country’s political and economic crises. Responses reveal an increased interest in international connections as pessimism on regional issues grows . . . This analysis is based on findings from a personal interview-survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,000 Lebanese citizens, conducted in November 2022 by a highly experienced, independent regional commercial company. The sampling was done according to standard geographical probability procedures, yielding a statistical margin of error of 3%. Strict quality controls and assurances of confidentiality were provided throughout. Full results can be viewed on The Washington Institute’s interactive polling data platform. Additional methodological details, including demographic breaks and other relevant information, are readily available on request.”

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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

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