This Week in Lebanon: 1/7/2023







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January 7th, 2022
 

Lebanon Enters 2023 Without a President
 
Following the expiration of former Lebanese President Michel Aoun’s six year term on October 31st, 2022, the position has yet to be filled, as the Lebanese Parliament has so far failed to elect a successor. Additionally, following the parliamentary elections that took place last May, the government – subsequently entering into caretaker status – headed by Prime Minister Najib Mikati, has also not been succeeded by an effective and fully empowered government, which requires an elected president, since last summer. 
 
“Lebanon starts the new year without a president.” by Hanna Davis. Axios. Read Article Here.

RESPONSE
 
At this point, the election of a new president should take the highest priority above all other issues in Lebanon. Without an elected, reform-minded president, all government actions and reforms remain at a standstill. The US should make clear their basic criteria is for a reformist president who is clean, determined, and capable of meeting the dire needs of the Lebanese people, and without such, future US aid could be in jeopardy.
 
-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

Minister of Interior Assures Upcoming Municipal Elections Will Not Be Postponed for a Second Time
Caretaker Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Bassam Mawlawi, publicized the Ministry’s intention to hold the postponed municipal elections – deciding the leadership for municipalities and the makhateer – on May 31st, 2023, after last year’s polling become postponed due to electricity supply and diaspora voting considerations, among other reasons. 

“Municipalities election to be held in May, Mawlawi says.” L’Orient Today. Read Article Here.

RESPONSE
 
Lebanon has so far failed to make a significant dent in the “business as usual” ethos that has left the country in total disarray. With the presidential and cabinet vacuums continuing along an indefinite time frame (indicators of the political malaise throttling the country), we should begin to consider looking to the local level for emerging agents of change and reform who can mobilize to challenge the status quo. These municipal elections can enable the people to speak directly and with a clear voice on issues that affect them on a daily basis. Their outcomes won’t bring back funds from overseas or unfreeze the bank vaults, but it will give them direct control over the basic transactions that affect their lives. 
 
-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader, jean.abinader@atfl.org.

French Armed Forces Minister Visits Lebanon on Behalf of President Macron

Sebastien Lecornu, the French Minister of the Armed Forces, under the direction of President Emmanuel Macron, visited Lebanon last week as part of an ongoing cooperation program between France and Lebanon to optimize the LAF’s capabilities and support the peacekeeping operations of the UN. Minister Lecornu visited the French contingent of UNIFIL in addition to holding meetings with Lebanese officials including Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, LAF Commander Joseph Aoun, and caretaker Minister of Defense Maurice Sleem.

“France pledges to strengthen military co-operation with Lebanon.” By Nada Maucourant Atallah. The National. Read Article Here.

RESPONSE

Support for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) is critical, now more than ever. The material and operational support from allies and friends – like the United States, France, Qatar, and others – must continue, and the multilateral support of the LAF speaks to how invested the US and its allies are in the future of Lebanon. This attentiveness to the stability and operational effectiveness of the LAF, however, is an incomplete foundation for Lebanon’s future. It is up to the political leaders to not take this international focus on Lebanon, especially from the Élysée Palace and the White House, for granted by squandering the opportunities to recover and move forward. The time is now to elect a president, form an effective government, enact the necessary financial reforms, and demonstrate to the Lebanese people that Lebanon’s leaders are equally invested in their future. 
 

-ATFL Research Associate James McLellan

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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

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This Week in Lebanon: 12/28/2022







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December 28, 2022

Primary Murder Suspect in UNIFIL Incident Identified, Arrested
Ranking Senators Urge Administration to Levy More Sanctions 
MP’s From Various Affiliations Submit Draft Personal Status Law

Primary Murder Suspect in UNIFIL Incident Identified, Arrested
On December 14th, an armored UNIFIL vehicle came under fire in the Southern Lebanese village of Aqbiya, killing Private Seán Rooney and wounding several others. Private Rooney was a citizen of Ireland, where his remains were returned. Irish President Michael D Higgins and Taoiseach (Irish prime minister) Leo Varadkar were among mourners present at Pte Rooney’s funeral service in County Louth [last] Thursday.” Although several suspects were reportedly arrested since the incident, the prime suspect was allegedly handed over to the Lebanese authorities by Hezbollah and was taken into custody this past weekend. Hezbollah is considered to be a terrorist group by the government of the United States. [BBC]

RESPONSE
 
ATFL is outraged by the loss of Private Seán Rooney, who was killed in the line of duty, and we send our condolences to his family.  As the world watches closely, Lebanon must show the world that it is a country based upon the rule of law and that its judicial decisions are unimpeded by political interference. Hezbollah’s cooperation was an important first step in the investigation of this UN peacekeeper’s murder. Now, the Lebanese judiciary should move quickly in an unobstructed effort to find and prosecute the perpetrators of this terrible crime. 
 
-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

Ranking Senators Menendez, Risch Urge Biden Administration to Levy More Sanctions Against Corrupt Lebanese Financial and Political Elite
According to L’Orient Today, “The two top-ranking members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in the US Senate urged the Biden administration to levy more sanctions against Lebanon’s financial and political elite who are engaging in corruption and undermining the rule of law.” [L’Orient Today]

RESPONSE

In a harshly worded letter to the government of Lebanon, two ranking members of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee wrote, “for too long, Hezbollah and others in Lebanon’s political class have continuously failed to prioritize the needs of the Lebanese people over their own narrow agendas. . .” Regardless of how you spin it, the challenge of negotiating US economic and humanitarian assistance to Lebanon comes at a delicate time. It’s long overdue for the MPs to demonstrate that they are capable of taking concrete steps forward with the national interest at heart.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

MP’s From Various Affiliations Submit Draft Personal Status Law
According to L’Orient Today, “Several Lebanese MPs proposed a unified personal status law to the Lebanese Parliament on Monday. The law proposal was worked on in partnership with the KAFA (enough) Violence and Exploitation NGO, an organization that works towards ending violence against women, the NGO announced on Dec. 14.” [L’Orient Today]

RESPONSE

Personal status laws have long been obstacles to how the Lebanese interact on family matters.  The article points out that “Lebanon lacks a civil code regulating personal status matters such as marriage, inheritance, and child custody, and so relies on 15 separate personal religious-based status laws and courts for the 18 recognized sects.” One of the themes of the thawra was asking for a law to pass Lebanese citizenship through the mother, still a thorny issue that remains resolved. How can a country build its identity if it denies citizenship to its youth? Parliament should not hesitate to draft revisions to its personal status laws so that it can eliminate sectarian and gender divisions carrying little merit in a changing society. 

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

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This Week in Lebanon: 12/16/2022







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December 16, 2022

Lebanon Starts Hiring for Power Body to Comply with Terms for World Bank Funds
Lebanese File Entirely Left off of IMF Agenda

Lebanese Religious Leader Slams MPs for Failing Nation’s People, World 
Why, With Each Rainstorm, Does Lebanon Dive into Chaos?

Lebanon Starts Hiring for Power Body to Comply with Terms for World Bank Funds
Lebanon’s Energy Ministry has recently announced it has begun hiring for an Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA), a requirement for receiving World Bank assistance to support the Levantine Energy Deal. This deal would more than double the amount of electricity provided to the Lebanese people on a daily basis. [Reuters]

RESPONSE

The devil is in the details. As the Ministry begins the process of hiring for an ERA, will it recruit independent regulators not beholding to any political party or individual and truly devolve power to the regulatory body according to international standards? The World Bank is expected to carefully review proposals by the Energy Ministry to ensure that Lebanon has presented a bonafide cost recovery plan and a regulatory reform program that meets international expectations.

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel 

Lebanese File Entirely Left off of IMF Agenda
The Executive Board of the IMF is currently in a series of meetings where it is assessing the value of staff-level agreements between its employees and various governments around the world. The board is reviewing agreements currently in place in Egypt and Tunisia, but Lebanon was left off of the agenda entirely. The Lebanon file will not be reviewed as the Lebanese government has yet to implement the necessary reforms outlined in the staff-level agreement. [LBC]

RESPONSE

A piecemeal approach to approving IMF prior agreement legislation is not working. The parliament needs a strong – and perhaps independently – facilitated process, involving top government officials, parliamentarian representatives from all political parties and coalitions, the IMF, and key stakeholders to agree on a reform package. Without such a process, the IMF reforms are going nowhere. A facilitated process should begin immediately but expectations to complete such a deal will be difficult until a president is elected.  

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel 

Lebanese Religious Leader Slams MPs for Failing Nation’s People, World
Last Sunday, Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi renewed his calls for the international community to help address Lebanon’s economic and political crisis. He went on to blame the political class for failing to implement reforms that would have prevented these crises in the first place. [Arab News]

RESPONSE
 
Once again the Maronite Patriarch has raised his voice to scold Lebanon’s political class for their seeming disregard for the future of the country. His objections to their constant obfuscation and corruption are well known, and he is striking out to protest the current inertia in electing a “clean” president and moving ahead with adopting reforms demanded by the IMF before beginning a bail out of the state. Representing a sizeable part of the population, it is disconcerting that his concerns go unheeded by politicians claiming to represent major Christian parties, thus dividing the community even further. Is he correct in asking, “Is there a deliberate decision to demolish existing Lebanon and build on its ruins a draft state that does not belong to its people, its history, or its surroundings?”
 
-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Why, With Each Rainstorm, Does Lebanon Dive into Chaos?
Lebanon’s outdated infrastructure is plaguing the country. Every time the country experiences heavy rain, local communities suffer from flooding and people die. This video explains the nature of the problem as well as potential solutions. [L’Orient Today]

RESPONSE

This telling video looks at the increased flooding in recent years in Lebanon. According to the report, it is not just climate change that is to blame. Investments in upgrading and maintaining sewerage and run-offs systems have not kept up with urbanization and the money diverted to other projects (hint – corruption). This is further compounded by the irregular trash collection which has blocked drains and made efficient sewage flows impossible. These are solvable problems. Perhaps handing this responsibility and funding over to the municipal bodies that are directly affected may be a positive first step. 

For a heart-breaking report on the suffering in Lebanon, you may want to turn to this report.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

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This Week in Lebanon 12/9/22

 

December 9, 2022

US Congress Members in Lebanon Urge New President ‘As Soon as Possible’
Hezbollah Sets Out to Conquer the Sunni Scene
Khamenei Puts Lebanon Back at the Heart of a Regional Tug of War
US Congress Members in Lebanon Urge New President ‘As Soon as Possible’
According to the L’Orient Today, “California representatives Mark Takano and Katie Porter, as well as Colin Allred of Texas — all three of them members of the Democratic Party — visited caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and caretaker Foreign Affairs Minister Abdallah Bou Habib Monday morning, the Grand Serail stated. They were accompanied by the US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea. The group went to Ain al-Tineh in early Monday afternoon to speak with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.” [L’Orient Today]

RESPONSE

Time is running out for Lebanon. It is time for Lebanon’s elected leaders to get their act together and show their readiness to enact needed reforms. The IMF is being tasked with challenges around the world as it addresses international turmoil and world-wide inflation. Countries are signing up with the IMF to address financial reform issues and take advantage of IMF help while it is being offered. The US, for its part, is focused on the war between Russia and Ukraine (and especially aid to Ukraine), potential instability in Asia, and energy price impacts on countries worldwide. US attention will turn away from Lebanon if its leadership cannot serve as a serious partner to address the country’s multiple problems and make needed reforms.

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel 

Hezbollah Sets Out to Conquer the Sunni Scene
Hezbollah has been working hard to recruit support from Lebanon’s Sunni community. They are looking at improving their own image within the community as well as gaining support from its elected leaders and politicians. It is even possible they could create their own 10 member Sunni bloc in Lebanon’s parliament. [L’Orient Today]
RESPONSE

In the absence of any real plan to consolidate the reformist camp in Lebanon, Hezbollah is wasting no time in creating momentum to support its goal of controlling Lebanon through a compliant Parliament. The appointment of a Sunni figurehead as a potential leader of a pro-Hezbollah Sunni group amplifies Hezbollah’s opportunities of reaching its goal as political overlord as the presidential vacuum and the posturing among rival blocs continues. If anyone thinks the political landscape is changing with the recent arrival of the “Change” MPs, they may have to hold their breath until the next parliamentary election when the youth vote will be instrumental in the outcome, if Lebanon can hold on that long.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Khamenei Puts Lebanon Back at the Heart of a Regional Tug of War
Last week, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remarked that, “the policy of the Islamic Republic in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon is to defeat American influence.” Around the same time, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad expressed “fear for Lebanon and its future” and referred to Lebanon as “Syria’s main flank.” [L’Orient Today]

RESPONSE

Recent statements by Syrian President Assad and Hezbollah’s Secretary General Nasrallah leave no doubt that Lebanon continues to be viewed as their pawn in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Lebanon has no room to maneuver if these two leaders have their way and Lebanon is pulled along a path of rejection rather than neutrality. All of this reinforces the need for a new president in Lebanon who will stand for neutrality and sovereignty in the country’s foreign policy. With Turkey and Saudi Arabia just over the horizon vying for leadership among the Sunni community, the pressure on local Sunni leaders must be intense. Sectarian politics will not support Lebanon’s future. Time for a change.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

 

This Week in Lebanon 12/05/2022



 

December 5, 2022

US Ambassador Urges President Election, Says Situation Not Hopeless
Flooding from Heavy Rainfall Traps People in their Cars
Head of Lebanon’s Supreme Judicial Council Calls for ‘Revolution’ Against Interference in the Judiciary

US Ambassador Urges President Election, Says Situation Not Hopeless
During a visit with the Maronite League, US Ambassador Dorothy Shea reiterated the urgency for lawmakers to both elect a new president and approve necessary reforms to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund. [Naharnet]

RESPONSE

The situation doesn’t have to be hopeless if the Lebanese Parliament does their job to elect a competent, reformist president; pass required legislation for an IMF deal that reflects a consensus of the parliament and citizens of Lebanon; and satisfies World Bank requirements concerning the Levantine Energy Deal in order to guarantee up to 8 more hours of electricity per day. The US and World Bank have their obligations as well. The US has taken a long time to negotiate a delivery mechanism with the UNDP for providing family support for the LAF. Furthermore, the World Bank must recognize the urgency of the Levantine Energy Deal in supporting the people of Lebanon during this historic crisis and find ways to accelerate its approval process.

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel 

Flooding from Heavy Rainfall Traps People in their Cars
Last month, the Civil Defense rescued people who were trapped in their cars at Nahr Ibrahim, Jbeil. The Civil Defense tweeted they “‘had towed a number of cars’ and rescued people who were trapped in cars submerged in rising waters.” [L’Orient Today]

RESPONSE

The finger-pointing continues. Nature strikes, people suffer, the government responds inadequately. This is Lebanon today, and for the past 30 plus years. Caretaker ministers do what little they can but with civil servants faced with a 90% loss in the wages, they have little motivation to action above and beyond. The continuing gridlock in the parliament, which cannot punch its way out of the presidential paper bag, leaves people wondering what’s next. There is no simple equation for rerouting Lebanon’s dismal drift away from a more positive and innovative future. It’s up to the Lebanese. Time they remind the political leaders that it is in their hands to elect a clean, credible, and viable president committed to reforms and a national vision of sovereignty.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Head of Lebanon’s Supreme Judicial Council Calls for ‘Revolution’ Against Interference in the Judiciary
According to Reuters, “Lebanon’s most senior judge [recently] said meddling by the political leadership in the work of the judiciary had led to a chaotic situation that required a ‘revolution in approaches’ to resolve, in a rare public rebuke of ruling elites.” [Reuters]

RESPONSE

One of the last credible institutions to many is crumbling away as politicians are whittling away the judiciary. First the undermining of the Beirut Port explosion investigation, then the in-fighting over special investigations such as the Central Bank audit, and now the dismissal of an aggressive judge trying to move ahead with corruption investigations while parliament’s reluctance to appoint “clean” monitors for various government institutions, beginning with the electricity sector, holds the country hostage. While the LAF has been able to maintain its operational standards, who knows what will happen with new leadership appointed by the deal to elect a new president?

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

 

This Week in Lebanon 11/19/2022



 

November 19, 2022

Lebanon Needs Efficient Authorities to Implement Necessary Reforms
The Residents Who Said No to the ‘Generator Mafia’
EDL to Issue New Tariffs in February 2023

Lebanon Needs Efficient Authorities to Implement Necessary Reforms
Lebanese economic experts strongly believe the IMF deal is the only way to rescue Lebanon’s economy. If Lebanon meets all of the conditions outlined in the staff level agreement the government reached with the IMF negotiating team last April, they will receive $3 billion in assistance. However, the actions lawmakers have taken since then, namely passing a budget and banking secrecy law, have both fallen short of satisfying the IMF requirements. Nasser Saidi argues that the government should move its public sector assets into a national wealth fund. [Xinhuanet]

RESPONSE

Without a new process that engages all vested interests (including IMF representatives, parliamentary blocs, and an executive team from government) the IMF deal is in grave danger of failing. The caretaker government can no longer expect to force an IMF deal on the parliamentarians. The process of moving ahead on reaching an IMF agreement will require strong communication, outreach with the Lebanese people, a trusted facilitator, and possibly international experts to answer questions. A trusted facilitator can help decision makers develop a credible roadmap that achieves buy-in from all stakeholders. And let us not kid ourselves, without an IMF deal it is likely that Lebanon will not be able to quickly pull itself from the abyss. An IMF deal will also speed up investor confidence and attract international and multilateral support for future development, economically, financially, and socially.  

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel 

The Residents Who Said No to the ‘Generator Mafia’
In many neighborhoods, there is only one supplier of electrical generators, which people rely on in a country facing an electricity crisis. A resident of one neighborhood remarked, “The neighborhood is no longer attractive because the subscription to the generator costs as much as the rent.” People are also often not charged according to a meter, but rather by an arbitrary price they work out with the providers. [L’Orient Today]

RESPONSE

Lebanon can make critical improvements to its electricity supply with two quick changes: allowing decentralized production of electricity through renewable energy sources, and launching a public awareness campaign that promotes citizen participation in the provision of electricity, including rate setting, transmission, incorporating all community suppliers, and collection of bills. Get the generator owners to come up with a plan to put themselves out of business. If they start now, they can be heroes, otherwise, they will reinforce the image that their only interest was enrichment at the cost of others.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

EDL to Issue New Tariffs in February 2023
This past Monday, Electricité du Liban issued the first change in tariff prices since 1994. The new bill will reportedly be calculated in dollars and collected in lira. The plan is supposed to result in 8 to 10 hours of electricity per day to the Lebanese, who currently enjoy about two hours of state-provided electricity per day. [L’Orient Today]

RESPONSE

No wonder there is little faith that the government can reform, beginning with the much targeted electricity sector. It’s not enough to issue tariffs. A public information campaign that ties the tariff increases into additional hours of electricity is needed, not continued raises by a government that has not delivered on any of its promises to increase energy supply. With new tariffs that are supposed to sustain the sector, the government will take a major step forward in attracting investors to a sector too long neglected and mismanaged. 

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

 

This Week in Lebanon 11/11/2022



 

November 11, 2022

Lebanon-Bound Fuel Trucks Destroyed in Air Strike Over Syria 
Taif Agreement is Best Solution to Lebanon Crisis, Saudi Arabia Stands by Us: Mikati
Lebanon’s Health Sector Worsens

Lebanon-Bound Fuel Trucks Destroyed in Air Strike Over Syria 
According to the Reuters, “At least two fuel trucks were destroyed in an air strike by an unidentified drone on the Syrian side of the border with Iraq late on Tuesday, Iraqi security and border officials told Reuters . . . Iran’s state-run Press TV channel confirmed the attack and accused the United States of carrying it out, saying ‘a convoy of 22 tankers carrying fuel to Lebanon crossing from Iraq to Syria was attacked by U.S. drones’ at the Syrian town of Albukamal.” [Reuters]

RESPONSE

This action underscores the need to quickly approve the Levantine Energy Deal, championed by the US, rather than some dubious offer from Iran. The Levantine deal will provide up to 8 hours of additional electricity for the citizens of Lebanon, and Lebanon’s Minister of Energy has stated that the deal is preferable to the transfer of fuel from Iran. But he and the Prime Minister must deliver to the World Bank an internationally acceptable electricity reform program that provides assurances to the World Bank concerning the sustainability of the project and begin the process of implementing an Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) to regulate the conduct of electricity power and reliability. The Lebanese government has taken nearly a year to deliver the necessary guarantees to the World Bank which will in turn provide the funding for the project. How much longer will the Lebanese people have to wait in darkness for their leaders to step up? 

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel 

Lebanon’s Civil Servants Are Leaving in Droves. They Won’t be Replaced Soon.
Richard Salame spoke with one civil servant who said, “In my office, we’ve reduced our schedule to one day per week”  because she and her colleagues feel transportation to the office is unaffordable. The source continued, “Even the employees who make it to the office don’t stay until the end of the shift because they have to pick up their kids from school—they can’t afford to pay for school transportation to take the kids home.” [L’Orient Today]

RESPONSE

While one can feel angst for the civil servants who are leaving Lebanon, it has a dual impact on the country: on the positive side, it reduces public expenditures on salaries, and on the negative side, it deprives the state of the very people they need to populate the agencies to ensure their operations. Of course, everyone has a story of ghost jobs and phantom employees who owe their jobs to their political overlords. But the fact remains that literally the best and brightest are leaving because they can find employment elsewhere, compromising Lebanon’s future prospects for a rapid rebirth once the politicians decide to act on behalf of the national interest.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Taif Agreement is Best Solution to Lebanon Crisis, Saudi Arabia Stands by Us: Mikati
Saudi Ambassador Walid bin Abdullah Bukhari and Lebanese Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati both stressed the importance of the Taif Agreement to addressing Lebanon’s challenges in governance. Mikati expressed that this conference signifies Saudi Arabia’s continued engagement in Lebanon and the large number of participants, including political leaders such as Walid Jumblatt, Suleiman Franjieh, and many Free Patriotic Movement MPs, signify the wide support for the Taif Agreement. [Arab News]

RESPONSE

It’s a bit of a puzzle why some political parties are now speaking out against the Taif Accords. Since the agreement was only partially implemented and then weakened, how can you challenge something that has not been activated? A bicameral legislature, independent judiciary, non-sectarian lower house of parliament, and decentralization are some of the major reforms called for in the agreement. Who can argue against something that strengthens Lebanon’s sovereignty? Must be that clause about disarming militias. As a leading politician noted, it’s time to get on with electing a president and completing a government so that the country has a future for making reforms and getting on with re-building the state.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

 

This Week in Lebanon 11/07/2022



 

November 7, 2022

Russia to Donate Wheat, Fuel to Lebanon
President Aoun’s Farewell Address
Lebanon’s Health Sector Worsens

Russia to Donate Wheat, Fuel to Lebanon
According to Naharnet, “Russian President Vladimir Putin has officially authorized a wheat and fuel grant to crisis-hit Lebanon, media reports said. The grant consists of 25,000 tons of wheat and ten tons of fuel oil. Caretaker Public Works and Transport Minister Ali Hamieh was informed of the approval overnight and the delivery date will be revealed within the next two days, the reports added.” [Naharnet]

RESPONSE

Considering the more than $700M in aid given by the US last year, it is good to see Russia step up during this time of need for the Lebanese people with wheat and fuel support. This offer is made while the US is making another important effort in support of the Lebanese people by facilitating a project to bring Egyptian gas through Jordan and Syria, and electricity from Jordan that will provide another 8 hours of electricity to the people of Lebanon. Issuing a sustainable tariff for electricity meets one of the two requirements necessary to starting World Bank funding for these projects.  The other is a requirement to begin the process of forming an independent electricity agency to regulate electricity price and reliability standards. Once the Lebanese government fulfills this requirement and the US Treasury Department signs off, power can flow, and hopefully within the coming weeks.

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel 

Outgoing President Aoun Attacks Head of Higher Judicial Council in Politicized Speech
According to L’Orient Today, “[In his farewell speech as the outgoing President of the Lebanese Republic, Former] President Michel Aoun focused a large part of his speech on Sunday on the head of the Higher Judicial Council Souheil Abboud, on whom he unleashed a direct attack.” [L’Orient Today]

RESPONSE

Former President Michel Aoun did not speak to rally the Lebanese around the need to elect a President and move the country forward towards recovery, nor did he speak sincerely about the need to shore up Lebanon’s failing institutions. No, rather than appear statesman-like, he resorted to the old trope of blaming others for the gridlock that now appears to be the outcome of the stalemate between him and the caretaker Prime Minister. Lebanon’s politicians have neither the vision nor the stamina to move ahead with the business of governing and rebuilding their country.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Lebanon’s Health Sector Debilitated Amid Worsening Economic Crisis
According to Al Monitor, “Lebanon’s health-care sector is fighting for survival amid an economic collapse, with the lives of patients at risk as critical care facilities have been falling apart and for the majority of the population affording essential medicine has become a luxury.” [Al-Monitor]

RESPONSE

It’s clear that international assistance from donors such as the EU and the US are the only remedies for keeping health-care facilities operating. The costs of most procedures, scarce and insufficient medicines, and the migration of health professionals spells doom for Lebanon’s medical infrastructure. Even though 80% of facilities are private, the challenges to both the private and public sectors in health services are enormous. For a patient to complain that being in a hospital is like a death sentence due to inadequate facilities, personnel, and medications exposes the depths of despair of Lebanon’s once stellar health sector.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

 

 

 

This Week in Lebanon 11/01/2022



 

November 1, 2022

ATFL and Congressional Staff Conclude Delegation Visit to Lebanon
Biden’s National Security Strategy: America’s Search For Order In The Middle East 
Defeating the Deadlock

ATFL and Congressional Staff Conclude Delegation Visit to Lebanon

ATFL has just wrapped up a bipartisan Congressional staff delegation visit to Lebanon. In four days, we met with leaders in the education, policy, humanitarian and religious communities as well as with Members of Parliament, political party leaders, the cabinet, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and local UN leadership. We had the opportunity to meet with US Ambassador Dorothy Shea and congratulate the US for its successful leadership in the maritime accord between Lebanon and Israel as well as discuss other priorities for Lebanon, including the Levantine Energy Deal. The success of the maritime deal has helped Lebanon catch the attention of its international friends. Now is the time to take advantage of this opportunity and keep the momentum going, day by day, for the next few months. Lebanon’s leaders can begin by electing a new president and then finalizing an IMF deal. They can then follow through with forming a new government and completing the Egyptian gas deal. Imagine how Lebanon could be viewed after five months of good news.   

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel 

Biden’s National Security Strategy: America’s Search For Order In The Middle East
James Ryan writes that “President Joe Biden’s National Security Strategy (NSS) addresses two trends in America’s Middle East policy that have been apparent over his tenure: military de-escalation and regional integration.” [Eurasia Review]

RESPONSE

In order to understand the implications of the ‘National Security Strategy (NSS) for Lebanon, one must begin with the overarching concerns of the US which remain in the president’s words, “Security, Stability, and Prosperity.” These ideal goals cover many objectives, not the least of which is to promote an environment in which countries are counted on as friends and allies to the degree they seek the same goals. Lebanon, under its current caretaker government, can either challenge or complement these goals: by electing a president committed to reforms, by passing and implementing the IMF conditions, and by investing in the people of Lebanon. This is the only long-term guarantee that the Lebanese will build a new social contract that serves to preserve and inspire the best in its people.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Defeating the Deadlock
Michael Young argues, “the dynamics indicate that only a figure who is above the fray, who has the means to push back against both Geagea and Bassil, who enjoys international respect, and who may not inconvenience Hezbollah for having spent years coordinating with the party, will emerge as the favorite. At present, [Joseph] Aoun alone appears to combine all these characteristics.” [Carnegie]

RESPONSE

It is a paradox of Lebanese politics that while many are hoping for a new president who is strong, decisive, and able to stand for the many, the Lebanese will likely get a convener, a person who can stand up with and not against the power brokers/traditional politicians. As long as the status quo persists, the country will find leadership that is constrained and throttled by a system that elevates compromise over action no matter how laudable or practical the solution proposed, the electricity sector being a prime example of gridlock and malfeasance. Maybe the first action of the new president should be the full implementation of the Taif Accord – while not perfect, it stands as a hallmark of what must be done to restore Lebanon.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

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This Week in Lebanon 10/22/2022



 

October 22, 2022

Sending Gas to Lebanon Via Syria Unlikely to Violate Sanctions, Senior US Official Says 
Looped in ‘Line by Line’, Hezbollah Shows Pragmatic Side in Lebanon-Israel Deal
Biden Just Pulled off a Big Diplomatic Victory-and Almost No One Noticed

Sending Gas to Lebanon Via Syria Unlikely to Violate Sanctions, Senior US Official Says 
During a webinar hosted by the American Task Force on Lebanon and the Middle East Institute, US Special Coordinator for Energy Affairs Amos Hochstein stated that the US is continuing to pursue the Levantine Energy Deal, which will see Egyptian gas and Jordan electricity transmitted to Lebanon via Syria. “The US has always been committed to getting that deal through,” Hochstein said. “We are going to work with the World Bank and Treasury Department to make sure that it first doesn’t affect any sanctions, which I think we are okay on, but we will have to have a determination formally.” [Middle East Eye]

RESPONSE

Special Presidential Coordinator Amos Hochstein clarified that the ball is in Lebanon’s court on two remaining issues in order to satisfy the World Bank requirements to get gas and electricity flowing: raising an electric tariff to a realistic rate which is now nearly complete according to US and Lebanese officials; and, beginning the process of establishing a electricity regulatory authority with professional appointees. This would increase electricity provided to Lebanese citizens from two hours per day to more than eight. This also provides critical temporary relief to Lebanese citizens until a more permanent electricity solution is introduced. This could be a quick and easy fix if the government can move on this issue in the coming weeks. 

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel 

Looped in ‘Line by Line’, Hezbollah Shows Pragmatic Side in Lebanon-Israel Deal
Analysts have observed that after a decade of regional activity, including sending arms and soldiers to aid the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah is pivoting its focus back to Lebanon. Others have noted the group also ascended to the deal because it was pragmatically good for the Lebanese people, which some identify as a notable example of the group choosing pragmatism over ideology. [Reuters]

RESPONSE
The details provide an interesting look at Hezbollah as being able to recognize benefits to the Lebanese people who would suffer from their expected ideological opposition to such a deal. Does this portend more pragmatism, let’s say, in choosing the next president of Lebanon, or accepting the IMF conditions, or any of the other issues that make up Lebanon’s national agenda? Only time will tell if Lebanon is on the cusp of a breakthrough in decision-making that puts the people first. 

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Biden Just Pulled off a Big Diplomatic Victory-and Almost No One Noticed
Max Boot, with the Washington Post, emphasizes how truly historic this accomplishment is for the Biden Administration. He states that while the deal may not be as attention grabbing as the Abraham Accords, it is in many ways a more surprising accomplishment. Reason being, unlike the case with Lebanon, none of the participating Arab states in the Abraham Accords were in a technical state of war with Israel and none of them shared a border with it. [Washington Post]

RESPONSE

Those dismissive of US diplomatic foreign policy have to give credit where credit is due. Other administrations have tried to resolve the boundary conflict and failed, but Biden’s team pulled it off. Importantly, this agreement also reclaims some credibility for US leadership in supporting regional security and stability given its broad consequences. Now, let’s see if Israel can stop its alleged incursions into Lebanese territorial waters and airspace that provide unneeded provocations to their opponents. And let’s see if the LAF and UNIFIL will have greater freedom to pursue their mandate in the south.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.