Category: This week in Lebanon

RESPONSE

The situation doesn’t have to be hopeless if the Lebanese Parliament does their job to elect a competent, reformist president; pass required legislation for an IMF deal that reflects a consensus of the parliament and citizens of Lebanon; and satisfies World Bank requirements concerning the Levantine Energy Deal in order to guarantee up to 8 more hours of electricity per day. The US and World Bank have their obligations as well. The US has taken a long time to negotiate a delivery mechanism with the UNDP for providing family support for the LAF. Furthermore, the World Bank must recognize the urgency of the Levantine Energy Deal in supporting the people of Lebanon during this historic crisis and find ways to accelerate its approval process.

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel 

The finger-pointing continues. Nature strikes, people suffer, the government responds inadequately. This is Lebanon today, and for the past 30 plus years. Caretaker ministers do what little they can but with civil servants faced with a 90% loss in the wages, they have little motivation to action above and beyond. The continuing gridlock in the parliament, which cannot punch its way out of the presidential paper bag, leaves people wondering what’s next. There is no simple equation for rerouting Lebanon’s dismal drift away from a more positive and innovative future. It’s up to the Lebanese. Time they remind the political leaders that it is in their hands to elect a clean, credible, and viable president committed to reforms and a national vision of sovereignty.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

RESPONSE

One of the last credible institutions to many is crumbling away as politicians are whittling away the judiciary. First the undermining of the Beirut Port explosion investigation, then the in-fighting over special investigations such as the Central Bank audit, and now the dismissal of an aggressive judge trying to move ahead with corruption investigations while parliament’s reluctance to appoint “clean” monitors for various government institutions, beginning with the electricity sector, holds the country hostage. While the LAF has been able to maintain its operational standards, who knows what will happen with new leadership appointed by the deal to elect a new president?

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

RESPONSE

This action underscores the need to quickly approve the Levantine Energy Deal, championed by the US, rather than some dubious offer from Iran. The Levantine deal will provide up to 8 hours of additional electricity for the citizens of Lebanon, and Lebanon’s Minister of Energy has stated that the deal is preferable to the transfer of fuel from Iran. But he and the Prime Minister must deliver to the World Bank an internationally acceptable electricity reform program that provides assurances to the World Bank concerning the sustainability of the project and begin the process of implementing an Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) to regulate the conduct of electricity power and reliability. The Lebanese government has taken nearly a year to deliver the necessary guarantees to the World Bank which will in turn provide the funding for the project. How much longer will the Lebanese people have to wait in darkness for their leaders to step up? 

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel 

While one can feel angst for the civil servants who are leaving Lebanon, it has a dual impact on the country: on the positive side, it reduces public expenditures on salaries, and on the negative side, it deprives the state of the very people they need to populate the agencies to ensure their operations. Of course, everyone has a story of ghost jobs and phantom employees who owe their jobs to their political overlords. But the fact remains that literally the best and brightest are leaving because they can find employment elsewhere, compromising Lebanon’s future prospects for a rapid rebirth once the politicians decide to act on behalf of the national interest.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

RESPONSE

It’s a bit of a puzzle why some political parties are now speaking out against the Taif Accords. Since the agreement was only partially implemented and then weakened, how can you challenge something that has not been activated? A bicameral legislature, independent judiciary, non-sectarian lower house of parliament, and decentralization are some of the major reforms called for in the agreement. Who can argue against something that strengthens Lebanon’s sovereignty? Must be that clause about disarming militias. As a leading politician noted, it’s time to get on with electing a president and completing a government so that the country has a future for making reforms and getting on with re-building the state.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

RESPONSE

Considering the more than $700M in aid given by the US last year, it is good to see Russia step up during this time of need for the Lebanese people with wheat and fuel support. This offer is made while the US is making another important effort in support of the Lebanese people by facilitating a project to bring Egyptian gas through Jordan and Syria, and electricity from Jordan that will provide another 8 hours of electricity to the people of Lebanon. Issuing a sustainable tariff for electricity meets one of the two requirements necessary to starting World Bank funding for these projects.  The other is a requirement to begin the process of forming an independent electricity agency to regulate electricity price and reliability standards. Once the Lebanese government fulfills this requirement and the US Treasury Department signs off, power can flow, and hopefully within the coming weeks.

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel 

Former President Michel Aoun did not speak to rally the Lebanese around the need to elect a President and move the country forward towards recovery, nor did he speak sincerely about the need to shore up Lebanon’s failing institutions. No, rather than appear statesman-like, he resorted to the old trope of blaming others for the gridlock that now appears to be the outcome of the stalemate between him and the caretaker Prime Minister. Lebanon’s politicians have neither the vision nor the stamina to move ahead with the business of governing and rebuilding their country.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

RESPONSE

It’s clear that international assistance from donors such as the EU and the US are the only remedies for keeping health-care facilities operating. The costs of most procedures, scarce and insufficient medicines, and the migration of health professionals spells doom for Lebanon’s medical infrastructure. Even though 80% of facilities are private, the challenges to both the private and public sectors in health services are enormous. For a patient to complain that being in a hospital is like a death sentence due to inadequate facilities, personnel, and medications exposes the depths of despair of Lebanon’s once stellar health sector.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

ATFL and Congressional Staff Conclude Delegation Visit to Lebanon

ATFL has just wrapped up a bipartisan Congressional staff delegation visit to Lebanon. In four days, we met with leaders in the education, policy, humanitarian and religious communities as well as with Members of Parliament, political party leaders, the cabinet, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and local UN leadership. We had the opportunity to meet with US Ambassador Dorothy Shea and congratulate the US for its successful leadership in the maritime accord between Lebanon and Israel as well as discuss other priorities for Lebanon, including the Levantine Energy Deal. The success of the maritime deal has helped Lebanon catch the attention of its international friends. Now is the time to take advantage of this opportunity and keep the momentum going, day by day, for the next few months. Lebanon’s leaders can begin by electing a new president and then finalizing an IMF deal. They can then follow through with forming a new government and completing the Egyptian gas deal. Imagine how Lebanon could be viewed after five months of good news.   

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel 

In order to understand the implications of the ‘National Security Strategy (NSS) for Lebanon, one must begin with the overarching concerns of the US which remain in the president’s words, “Security, Stability, and Prosperity.” These ideal goals cover many objectives, not the least of which is to promote an environment in which countries are counted on as friends and allies to the degree they seek the same goals. Lebanon, under its current caretaker government, can either challenge or complement these goals: by electing a president committed to reforms, by passing and implementing the IMF conditions, and by investing in the people of Lebanon. This is the only long-term guarantee that the Lebanese will build a new social contract that serves to preserve and inspire the best in its people.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

RESPONSE

It is a paradox of Lebanese politics that while many are hoping for a new president who is strong, decisive, and able to stand for the many, the Lebanese will likely get a convener, a person who can stand up with and not against the power brokers/traditional politicians. As long as the status quo persists, the country will find leadership that is constrained and throttled by a system that elevates compromise over action no matter how laudable or practical the solution proposed, the electricity sector being a prime example of gridlock and malfeasance. Maybe the first action of the new president should be the full implementation of the Taif Accord – while not perfect, it stands as a hallmark of what must be done to restore Lebanon.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Special Presidential Coordinator Amos Hochstein clarified that the ball is in Lebanon’s court on two remaining issues in order to satisfy the World Bank requirements to get gas and electricity flowing: raising an electric tariff to a realistic rate which is now nearly complete according to US and Lebanese officials; and, beginning the process of establishing a electricity regulatory authority with professional appointees. This would increase electricity provided to Lebanese citizens from two hours per day to more than eight. This also provides critical temporary relief to Lebanese citizens until a more permanent electricity solution is introduced. This could be a quick and easy fix if the government can move on this issue in the coming weeks. 

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel 

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader

Those dismissive of US diplomatic foreign policy have to give credit where credit is due. Other administrations have tried to resolve the boundary conflict and failed, but Biden’s team pulled it off. Importantly, this agreement also reclaims some credibility for US leadership in supporting regional security and stability given its broad consequences. Now, let’s see if Israel can stop its alleged incursions into Lebanese territorial waters and airspace that provide unneeded provocations to their opponents. And let’s see if the LAF and UNIFIL will have greater freedom to pursue their mandate in the south.

-ATFL Vice President Jean AbiNader