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Lebanon Needs International Support for Judicial Reform

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Lebanon’s judicial system is subjected to endless assaults from government officials and political parties that have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo of impunity over the rule of law. Due to ill-defined exceptions in the legal code, judges are limited in their abilities to call ministers for questioning. Manipulations of this exclusion principle  is one of many examples of  corruption in the judicial process. A perfect case of the disregard for the law is when a Lebanese judge ordered Central Bank governor Riad Salameh to attend a court hearing for questions on his alleged misconduct, The subpoena was issued by Judge Ghada Aoun on February 1 and Lebanese security were not able to locate him at his home or office. Salameh denied any wrongdoing, declaring his innocence and has refused to hand himself over to the courts.

On March 18, authorities arrested his younger brother, Raja Salameh, who is accused along with Riad of embezzling public and private funds, money laundering to illegally enrich themselves at the outset of the 2019 financial crisis. Sources reported Raja is currently being detained in the Baabda area, east of Beirut. This would require Judge Aoun to transfer her investigation to Judge Nicolas Mansour who oversees the district of Mount Lebanon. But the chase for answers from Salameh is not the only problem the judicial system is facing in Lebanon.

Unfortunately, instead of defending the judiciary, Prime Minister Najib Mikati said on Friday that the course of action by some judges was increasing tensions in Lebanon. His statement, regardless of intent, undermines the legitimacy of the court’s actions and risks enabling corruption. 

Mikati did, however, conclude a meeting with Lebanon’s justice minister Henry Khoury, agreeing to request the Mount Lebanon public prosecutor to take appropriate measures on the matter. There was also talk of restoring the rights of depositors in the commercial banks which the Central Bank regulates.. 

It has been almost two years since the devastating explosion in Beirut’s port that had taken the lives of more than 200 people and 6,500 wounded. Billions of dollars’ in property damage was also inflicted on the society. This exacerbated the existing economic declines, and depositors faced even more severe monetary erosion  as a result of the widening  financial meltdown, making it nearly impossible to rebuild some semblance of normalcy. People wanted to know why this could happen and what is being done to unearth the answers.

The Lebanese courts are fighting to give the people the truth on who is responsible for storing 2,750 tons of Ammonium Nitrate (AN), the cause of the blast. Judge Tarek Bitar, a dedicated legal servant, is giving the Lebanese hope in the domestic judiciary as Aya Majzoub, a Human Rights Watch researcher,  told Al Jazeera. Indeed, his willingness to call on witnesses from the elite such as former Ministers Hasan Khalil, Ghazi Zeiter, and Nohad al-Mashnouk has rattled the fragile cages of the once perceived immunity these influential political figures possess. He is setting a precedent that a majority of Lebanese are not used to seeing, that of politicians being treated as if they are under the law and not above it.

Both are senior members of the Shia political party called Amal, an ally of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah, party which is designated by the United States government as a terrorist organization. When they refused to follow the summons for questioning on the charges of criminal negligence, the rest of Lebanon had to pay a price.

In October of 2021, both Amal and Hezbollah organized rallies in anger to protest Bitar’s continued appointment as head of the Beirut blast investigation. Thousands of their supporters marched on the Palace of Justice in Tayouneh,  a Christian neighborhood in Beirut. Reports consumed the airwaves saying supporters of Lebanon’s Christian Lebanese Forces (LF) party fired upon the Hezbollah-Amal demonstrators with sniper rifles. It triggered a firefight with heavy weapons leaving 7 lives lost and a nation once again in dread and mourning. People were outraged and in a state of fear. Hezbollah’s leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah blamed the deaths on Samir Geagea, the leader of the LF. Geagea denied giving orders to fire on the demonstrators and blamed Hezbollah’s incitement against Judge Bitar. Geagea was summoned by instructions of army intelligence to make a statement based on information provided by LF members who were arrested following the killings. He responded in a television interview that he would happily give a statement to the military court if they “listen to Nasrallah” first.. 

One should remind him this is not how the law works. Understandably, many Lebanese are frustrated with Hezbollah and its allies’ ability to ignore the authority of Lebanon’s legal and political institutions.

The probe into the blast has rekindled memories of Lebanon’s vicious 15-year civil war (1975-1990).  Nevertheless, it was not just the blast that killed these Lebanese, but the cowardice of some politicians who refused to hold themselves accountable before the law and courts. 

Mr. Nasrallah made allegations against the judge saying he was “playing politics” and that he was using “the blood of the victims to serve political interests.” There were reports from local Arabic news that Bitar received threats from Hezbollah’s Liaison and Coordination unit, Wafiq Safa. Through intermediaries, Safa made a stark warning to Bitar and made it clear his organization was displeased with how he was carrying out the case. 

The message to Judge Bitar was straightforward, “We have had enough of you. We will go to the end of the legal path, and if that does not work, we will remove you by force.”  Bitar confirmed these threats in a letter to Lebanon’s public prosecutor Ghassan Oueidate. So far, his work has not been deterred. This, however, may not last. 

The United States is a traditional ally of Lebanon and should continue to more forcefully prioritize independence of the judiciary as a key anti-corruption reform upon which additional aid can be unlocked. Recently the Biden Administration and Congress increased aid to Lebanon’s ailing economy and security forces to help their families survive the pandemic. All of this is welcome and can help bring more stability to Lebanon in preparation for the May election. However,  future aid should be predicated on guaranteeing the safety and freedom of judges to conduct their work without intimidation. Lebanon’s failing democracy can be rescued, not simply by the power of voters, but by the confidence of its judiciary’s independence. 

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans. Image by Katy Kildee https://www.katykildee.com. 

Lebanon’s Elections: Who’s In and Who’s Out?

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If you’re worried about Lebanon’s commitment to a democratic character more insulated from its oligarchs, look to the results of the candidate registrations for the Parliamentary elections on May 15. According to Arab News, “The final number of candidates who will run for the May 15 Lebanese parliamentary elections is 1,043. The final total includes 155 women, 15% of the registered candidates.” It remarked, “This is the highest number of candidates in Lebanese political history, with the number of candidates for one seat exceeding expectations in some electoral districts.”

And if you crave even more details about who’s in and who’s out, check the comprehensive list published by L’Orient le Jour here. The proliferation of candidates, however, is only one aspect within a larger story of this historically significant moment for Lebanon. The real story lies in the background leading up to the May 15th elections. You can count on the traditional elites, especially those who are now in the majority with Hezbollah, to hand out more cookies to their constituents or provoke sectarian feelings through the kind of fake news that has now become a ubiquitous and all-too-familiar scourge of elections across the globe. The offensive is already underway, as we continue to watch incumbents slowing down any momentum for reforms coming from the Parliament. This includes dragging out the process of appointments to the Electoral Board, the Electricity Regulatory Commission, and the Public Procurement oversight monitor in addition to delaying any actions that may bring more independence to the judiciary.

Lebanon’s politicians speak volumes of their intentions, yet all they have to show for it is their mastery of procrastination, denial, thuggery, abstentions, and other tactics from their corruption toolkit, ensuring that any threats to their priorities are mitigated. As Ibrahim Johari has documented, there are significant obstacles imposed on new entrants to politics as well as to voters, themselves. The Arab News article observes that less than half of all registered candidates survive to get on a ballot, being unable to find a list that will include them. Although in some districts the election regulations do allow for both individual and list-based voting, independent candidates without more unified backing ultimately face an arduous challenge.

In order to register, candidates must submit a $1500 deposit, an obstacle for many especially amid the recent Central Bank circulars continuing restrictions on depositors’ access to capital. Moreover, if they do not appear on the ballot, candidates forfeit the deposit, an especially heavy loss in this current economic climate. In addition, candidates must show evidence of a new account with $5000 deposited, another hurdle for new entrants or anyone without major political backing. Both mega-centers and electronic voting cards have been postponed until the 2028 election cycle as the current government claims that there was not enough time to implement either. Some analysts claim, however, that the IMPACT and other social services databases provide more than enough capacity for the government to introduce digital innovations supporting both initiatives.

With the registrations now complete, emerging questions are increasingly concerned with the possibility of the election‘s postponement should Hezbollah, Amal, and the Free Patriotic Movement come to the conclusion that their alliance will lose its majority position in Parliament after May 15th.

Tony Francis, a political analyst noted that, “The determination of the parties in power to nominate the same people who were MPs while some of them are accused in the Beirut port blast case and some accused of financial irregularities, is disrespectful to people.” More than disrespectful, one World Bank executive told ATFL that it is beyond cynical to think that the ruling elites and their friends have no intention of exposing themselves to potential losses in the election. They are, therefore, deliberately stalling IMF negotiations until the formation of a new government, thus solidifying their position as the dominant ruling force.

Interestingly, an article in L’Orient Le Jour noted that the Saudis were potentially interested in reviving the Sunni presence in the elections in order to prevent Hezbollah from gaining seats at the expense of the Sunni community. Rather than endorsing candidates, however, the Kingdom is hoping that the Lebanese Sunni community will decide on an effective approach to the elections on its own. The Saudis have discussed this issue several times apparently, with the French, and, according to the article, have already committed to joint humanitarian projects for Lebanon with them.

In light of this development, the French-Saudi influence may prove its impact on the election results. As time passes, though, the Syrians and Turks, among others, will increase their activities in Lebanon so as not to lose their stake in the country’s affairs. So while this seems like a typical Lebanese election with entrants and prospective opponents facing off with the corrupt classes depriving the country of its stability, there may still be some surprising outcomes. That, however, must be decided by the Lebanese people and the Lebanese people, alone, through free, fair, and on-time elections.

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon, the IMF, and the Parliamentary Elections – What’s the Story?

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A war of words is being waged against the prospects and need for an IMF rescue package as some sources claim it will force drastic measures in the name of reforms that would undermine the long-term stability of the economy. This is not a new claim, especially coming from those who have the most to lose in any alteration of the status quo and restructuring of the banking sector, transparency in public procurement, and stabilization of the currency. The lower and middle classes have already suffered the most from the devalued currency, hyperinflation, and inability to procure essential health products or pay for basic services such as education and power. The arrow of paying the price is gradually turning towards those who use Lebanon as a base and have suffered little dislocation from the economic withering of the State.

The reaction of the Association of Lebanese Banks to the proposed financial plan is just one indicator out of several revealing how those with deeply vested interests envision the pain should be spread. Of course, the plan has many flaws, especially because of its uneven distribution of losses and its reliance on a timeline that does not deliver relief to the majority of bank depositors. Where are the alternative scenarios, though, that are able to meet the three objectives of stabilizing the currency, restraining national spending, and increasing state revenues? Yes, the devil is in the details but without these steps, Lebanon remains a pariah in the investment community.

According to the Economic Research Unit of the Byblos Bank, the IMF said, after its last two weeks of consultations in Lebanon, that, “the unprecedented and complex nature of the Lebanese crisis requires a comprehensive economic and financial reform program to stabilize the economy, to address deep-seated challenges, and to lay the ground work for sustainable and strong growth.” While the negotiating teams were in agreement on the areas in which to target reform, additional meetings are needed to produce a detailed program. In other words, the government needs to do its homework, pass a national budget, and build a national consensus to support a multi-year austerity program.

The IMF identified five main areas of achievable, short-and medium-term measures that would provide a framework for future reforms. According to Byblos Bank, this includes “reforming state-owned enterprises starting with the energy sector and improve delivery services without additional public financing [subsidies]; enhancing transparency and accountability by strengthening the governance, anti-corruption, and the anti-money laundering, and combating financing of terrorism frameworks; reforming public finances to ensure debt sustainability and to provide space for social spending and reconstruction; restructure the financial sector to restore confidence and support the recovery; as well as establishing a credible monetary and exchange rate system.”

The IMF had other recommendations regarding the sequence of reforms suggesting that the government move immediately on energy sector and public procurement laws and take steps to build credibility with the Lebanese people as well as international donors. The approval of a proactive 2022 national budget will send a strong signal that the government intends to move in the right direction as the bottom line remains the same: it’s up to the Lebanese Parliament and political leadership to take the necessary first steps on the pathway of reform.

 

Election Fever

There is no lack of candidates counting on support from the Sunni community, despite the urgings of former Prime Minister and Future Movement leader Saad Al Hariri to boycott the polls. Former prime ministers aside, a number of voices are already presenting themselves as the ideal fillers of this emerging political vacuum. Bahaa Al Hariri, Saad’s brother, has indicated that his party, Sawa Li Lubnan will field around 30 candidates in May without confirming if he will run himself.

There is no certainty that the coalition of the Free Patriotic Movement, Amal, Hezbollah, and Marada will maintain their Parliamentary majority as fissures are beginning to appear. In fact, opponents only need to win a minimum of 15 seats to deny the coalition the seats needed to capture the Parliamentary votes to name the President or to make changes to the constitution. That is one of the reasons observers fear a resurgence of intercommunal violence in which people would turn to their traditional sect leaders for protection rather than take the risk of voting for the opposition.

Despite the fact that the 2018 elections cost the Lebanese government some $54 million, Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced that $18m has been allocated for the 2022 elections. Embassies have been instructed to find local funding to support overseas voting for the Lebanese registered to vote in local centers. This measure is in addition to the solicitation of funds from various countries as well as the UN to support the facilitation of elections in Lebanon which includes everything from ballot processing to funding ISF-run security at polling stations, and travel allowances for election officials. It was with some surprise that Prime Minister Mikati acceded to President Aoun’s request that the Minister of the Interior prepare an analysis of the possibility of mega-centers to be incorporated the upcoming elections.

The drama of reform and the elections continues to build, as do the indicators of the postponement of either process. Lebanon continues to inch along on the backs of remittances and family transfers. Foreign officials come and go, giving the government the same message, but hope has to emerge locally, as the vacuum is continues to be deafening.

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans. The above image is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license. 

How is the Patient, Doctor? Doctor…Oops, Gone to Dubai

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The stories from Lebanon are exhausting to hear, but if we, its children and friends from abroad, stop standing with and caring for the Lebanese people who are just barely hanging on, then the political warlord-politicians will have won. This last week was mired in both the ominous and the tragic. Fareed Zakaria, no less a stellar media analyst, hammered the elites in his nightly commentary on CNN that pointed to the traditional political players and Hezbollah as the villains, citing chapter and verse of the tribulations of the Lebanese and the economic ruin caused by the oligarchs.

Add to that the humiliating story of the Foreign Ministry’s recent circular asking Lebanese abroad to pay for the salaries of the local embassy staff as proposed budget cuts would reduce Lebanon’s diplomatic missions worldwide and, in some cases, will result in the closure of its embassies. As Abdallah Bou Habib, Foreign Minister and former Ambassador to the US, reported to Reuters in December, “he had begun implementing a plan to cut spending at embassies, including rent allowances, diplomats’ salaries, and expenses for parties and travel. Savings could amount to $18 million out of a total budget of $95 million.” So in case you thought that consular services were already slowing down, consider the morale of the Lebanese expatriates who handle most of the administrative tasks in many embassies.

Just when Lebanon should be taking initiatives to rebuild its credibility in the eyes of the foreign countries that may be home to potential investors in Lebanon, it instead shoots itself in both feet, becoming hobbled in its capabilities to attract the larger financial support it really needs. Even if the Lebanese staff are paid in local currency such as USD, do the government cutbacks imply that consulate and embassy officers will also have to bear wage cuts that will require further efforts to secure additional sources of income?

Let’s compound the economic abuse with the following two points. According to the Central Administration of Statistics, there was a 2,605% increase in the cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages in Lebanon between the end of 2019 and the end of 2021 (Byblos Bank Department of Economic Research). On top of that, preliminary details of a proposed monetary restructuring under discussion that was seen by Reuters, “projects a 93% devaluation of the Lebanese pound and converts the bulk of hard currency deposits in the banking system to local currency . . . Of $104 billion of hard currency deposits, the plan foresees returning just $25 billion to savers in US dollars, with most of what’s left converted to pounds at several exchange rates, including one that would wipe 75% off some deposits.”

The article attempts to make sense of a 15 year plan to pay back all depositors, based on their level of deposits and stake in the bank. “This time, the losses are divided out as follows: $38 billion by depositors; $13 billion through a reduction in the capital of banks’ shareholders; $10 billion in a government perpetual bond; and $8 billion by the central bank. The plan foresees wiping out 75% of the value of $16 billion in deposits accrued thanks to high-interest rates since 2015, through a conversion to pounds valued at a below-market rate. Ahead of the many restless nights and painful days preceding the approval of such a plan, I encourage you to read the article and to mobilize for fairness and equity.

The widespread suffering of the people was confirmed by Impact Lebanon, the NGO working to develop a database for the social safety net DAEM. After a two months registration period, 582,660 families – or  1,472,523 citizens – registered for help since November 30, 2021. Impact’s report noted that “These numbers are not an accurate indication of the Lebanese population in need of help since many, if not most, in impoverished areas don’t have access to cellphones or the internet to be able to register [editor’s note – the same problem exists with voter registration which is dominated by the traditional parties]. Despite that, the indicated number of registered people needing help in Lebanon is worrying, not to mention the number of unemployed. More than half (58.82%) of all registered individuals stated that they are unemployed.”

The Vatican’s Foreign Minister Archbishop Paul Richard Gallagher is in Lebanon on a mission from Pope Francis. After meeting with President Michel Aoun, he spoke to the press and, “stressed that ‘the Lebanese people must be given the opportunity to be the architects for a better future in their land without undue interference.’” He also revealed that the Vatican is willing to help by hosting a dialogue between the political actors if requested by all involved parties. You can carry that “if” to the bank, which is worth its weight in Lira.

In the meantime, we just have to wait for updates on an interpretation of the bank rescue plan and new monetary policy as well as a realistic assessment of its adoption. If you are looking for some sunshine in this blog, will you take a bit of prayer instead?

 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans. The above image is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 12/14/2021

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DAILY NEWS

French Court Orders Lebanese Saradar Bank to Pay $2.8 Million to French-Based Client
“The Nov. 19 ruling, not yet published but seen by Reuters, orders Lebanon’s Saradar Bank to pay the Syrian claimant all the funds she had deposited in two accounts at the bank in 2014.” The court order pertaining to deposits worth $2.8 million is the first-known international ruling against informal capital controls undertaken by Lebanese banks since 2019. [Reuters]

TotalEnergies Agrees to Preliminary Study for Zahrani Power Plant
According to the Lebanese Energy Ministry, French energy group, TotalEnergies, has agreed to conduct a technical and financial preliminary study, a major initial step to building a floating regasification unit in Lebanon’s Zahrani power plant. The Ministry added that the plant’s annual gas capacity of 650 million cubic meters will rise to 1.4 billion cubic meters should the new unit be built. [Reuters]

President Aoun Calls for Cabinet Session, ‘Even if It Gets Boycotted’
“The (government’s) paralysis cannot persist,” President Aoun said, adding that, “there are matters that need to be addressed.” The President also said, “the elections will take place,” claiming that, “there will be an agreement on holding the elections in May.” [Naharnet]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Lebanon Continues To Leak Talent And Hope
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, “What is different about the latest waves of emigration are the low levels of those wanting to leave who say they are not interested in returning. It will be illuminating to break down this data by sectarian affiliation as the number of Sunni wanting to leave is increasing which may ultimately change their demographic in Lebanon. According to the Gallup World Poll cited earlier, ‘The desire to leave Lebanon cuts across major Lebanese communities. Notably, more Muslims than Christians in Lebanon tell Gallup they would like to leave the country (67% vs. 57%). The exodus of Middle Eastern Christians from the historical cradle of Christianity has accelerated in recent decades because of conflict and instability in countries that held significant Christian populations in the not-distant past.”

Read More Here

Al-Monitor
Will Lebanon’s Economic Crunch Stir Demographic Change?
Hanan Hamdan

Hamdan writes, “The emigration of Lebanese, especially Christians, raises concerns in Lebanon in terms of the demographic change that it may lead to, in light of the economic crisis that the Lebanese have been experiencing for nearly two years.”

Read More Here

L’Orient Today
Macron, MBS, Hezbollah: Behind the Scenes of a Play in Three Acts
Mounir Rabih

Rabih writes, “For MBS, however, Lebanon is under Hezbollah’s thumb, which poses a threat to the security of Arab countries and plays a role in captagon trafficking to the Gulf. Yet, Macron was able to push him to make a concession: A phone call to Mikati from the French president’s personal phone. Macron reportedly exchanged a few words with the Lebanese premier before passing the phone to MBS. The rest of the story has two contradictory versions.”

Read More Here

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Continues to Leak Talent and Hope

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A recent Gallup World Poll indicates that more than six in 10 (63%) Lebanese say they want to leave Lebanon permanently. This coincides with the findings of a Zogby Research Services poll sponsored by ATFL which recorded the same percentage. It is no surprise, then, that the two highest concerns driving these numbers are the economy and corruption, as people noted that they no longer have enough money for food, transportation, energy, education, or healthcare. 

According to Information International, based in Beirut and cited in a story covered by Al-Monitor, 17,720 emigrated in 2020. After the first 10 months of 2021, “we recorded an increase of about 65,000 people.” Based on official data, Shams al-Din, a researcher at Information International, “expected this number to double in 2022, especially since there has been a 150% increase in passport renewal requests as the Lebanese wish to flee Lebanon before more crises hit.”

The demand for passport services has been so great that Lebanese General Security has had to issue new guidelines on renewals, unable to keep up with the demand. This has prompted some to board various types of sea vessels and head to Cyprus and Greece while others try to steal into Jordan, Israel, and Turkey via Syria. 

Recent figures from Gallup World Poll data in Lebanon “represent one of the deepest and most sudden declines in any country’s economic and humanitarian fortunes since data collection began in 2005.” The economic backstory is compelling enough with social and psychological costs driving the disappearing middle class to shrink even more. 

In the past, especially after the civil war in Lebanon, there have been noticeable rises in emigration, which were not all bad as they both accelerated the brain drain and simultaneously built a pool of expatriates which provide some $7 billion in annual remittances generally directed to families left behind. In those days as in the previous decades, “Western European countries, the United States, Australia and Gulf states have been Lebanese’s top migration destinations in the past.” Of course emigration waves varied, depending on the security, political, and economic situation in Lebanon as well as the countries that received them. 

As stated in the Al-Monitor article, “In the last couple of years, Lebanese youth have started exploring new countries, such as Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, and most recently Serbia.” Although the numbers are still in the tens of thousands, they represent a shift that may create other new nodes of the Lebanese diaspora. Currently, most go into businesses such as tourism and the restaurant sector, or are professionals working in medical or educational centers. 

What is different about the latest waves of emigration are the low levels of those wanting to leave who say they are not interested in returning. It will be illuminating to break down this data by sectarian affiliation as the number of Sunni wanting to leave is increasing which may ultimately change their demographic in Lebanon. According to the Gallup World Poll cited earlier, “The desire to leave Lebanon cuts across major Lebanese communities. Notably, more Muslims than Christians in Lebanon tell Gallup they would like to leave the country (67% vs. 57%). The exodus of Middle Eastern Christians from the historical cradle of Christianity has accelerated in recent decades because of conflict and instability in countries that held significant Christian populations in the not-distant past.”

So what does this portend for Lebanon in 2050? The answers begin with the spring municipal and parliamentary elections. As of now, with 85% saying that they are finding it difficult or very difficult to get by, it is a fair question to ask if voters will seek remedies in their traditional leaders or opt for new faces. Of that 85%, 62% say getting by is “very difficult,” nearly double the figure (32%) in 2019.

Gallup results go on to point out that “Nearly three in four people (74%) now say they experienced stress “a lot of the day.” At least half of people in Lebanon also say they experienced a lot of sadness (56%) and anger (49%) as well. All three are new highs in Gallup’s 16-year trend in the country.”

Whether or not this depressing profile improves may well be impacted by how the election results create opportunities for positive and sustainable change. Lebanon can head in a new direction based on reforms that cleanse the economy of its most egregious corruption and on the restoration of its productive elements. Lebanon can also become another stunning case study of how political leaders dodge responsibility, allowing their country to fail on their watch. It is time for the Lebanese to keep watch over their own heritage and future, and not that of their leaders.

 

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon. 

Lebanon Daily News Brief 12/13/2021

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DAILY NEWS

Friday Night Explosion in Burj Al Shemali Camp, Tyre | Three Killed in Shooting During Funeral of Hamas Supporter From Blast
After a large explosion occurred in Burj Al Shemali, a Palestinian refugee camp in Tyre, around a dozen civilian casualties were reported. Hamas said in a statement on Saturday that the blast was caused by an electrical fault in a warehouse containing oxygen and gas cylinders for coronavirus patients, as well as detergents and disinfectants, however, there is suspicion that the explosion was caused by the detonation of a stockpile of their weapons. [Deutsche Welle] Hamas reported that three members were killed and others injured in a shooting on Sunday in the Palestinian camp of Burj al-Shemali in Lebanon, following alleged clashes between Fatah-aligned gunmen and members of Hamas. [Reuters]

Minister of Interior Says Elections Likely to Happen in May
Minister of Interior Bassam Al-Mawlawi said that December 27th is the deadline by which the electoral law can be amended and the elections rescheduled. Minister Mawlawi also indicated that he will not issue an official decree appointing a date for elections, signed off by the President of the Republic, before an agreement is settled between President Aoun and Prime Minister Miqati. According to him, President Aoun is unlikely to sign off on a March 27th date for Parliamentary elections.[Naharnet]

ISF Thwarts Captagon Smuggling Attempt Bound for Saudi Arabia
“The Internal Security Forces (ISF) announced Saturday that it busted an attempt to smuggle a large quantity of captagon narcotics to Saudi Arabia, days after Lebanon’s interior minister said that country was undertaking efforts to curtail the outflow of illicit goods from the country.” [L’Orient Today]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Raseef 22
Innocents Fall Down Along the “Road to Jerusalem,” Why is Disarmament of Palestinian Arms Impossible in Lebanon?
Hussein Chaaban

Chaaban writes, “[Zeina Al-Helou] reveals that the Lebanese security apparatus is “involved in the regime of mafias that is imposed over Palestinian refugees in the camps,” and explains that “the Lebanese state is too weak to touch the weapons of the camps, or decide to remove them. Therefore, the security apparatus has established a network of relationships and interests with the armed factions, planting informants with the thought that they are being smart, or that they have [the camps] under control.”

Read More Here

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

This Week In Lebanon: 12/11/2021

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December 11, 2021
Beirut Blast Investigation Cleared to Resume
Christmas Only For The Rich In Lebanon As Prices Increased Ridiculously
Lebanon’s Elderly Population Devastated by Crash

Beirut Blast Investigation Cleared to Resume
A string of lawsuits filed against Judge Tarek Bitar by those who Bitar had summoned for questioning had suspended the Beirut Port blast investigation for more than a month. A judicial source says the last of the suits have been rejected and Bitar is cleared to resume the investigation. Nizar Saghieh from Legal Agenda warns that the resumption of Bitar’s investigation could only be temporary if more legal complaints are filed. [Al Arabiya]

RESPONSE

“The struggle to keep Judge Bitar in charge of this case is a watershed issue which will determine whether Hezbollah or the government will have the final say in making decisions on how the law is enforced or ignored. PM Mikati and his government are challenged to find a way to proceed which allows Judge Bitar to remain on the job while at the same time ensuring that the Ministers and government officials subpoenaed to testify in the port blast investigation are properly deposed under the rule of law in Lebanon. The Lebanese people are watching this issue closely as it will determine the strength of the current government to push back on Hezbollah.”

-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel

Christmas Only For The Rich In Lebanon As Prices Increased Ridiculously

The current economic crisis is preventing many people in Lebanon from celebrating Christmas as they usually would. As the Lebanese lira continues to lose value, many Lebanese are unable to purchase the essentials of everyday life. The cost of Christmas decorations is well beyond what an average family can now afford. [The 961]

RESPONSE

“Last week, I bought my Christmas tree. Like many Americans, I purchased it at an inflated price due to transport issues. However, I count myself grateful that I could afford a tree. Thousands of families in Lebanon are unable to purchase everyday essentials let alone holiday gifts and decorations. It is hard to comprehend how Beirut, with all of its festive lights and decorations mostly in the dark and the rest of the country can try to make merry when so many are struggling to even keep on lights or feed the most vulnerable. So please reach out and support CARITAS, or CNEWA, the IRC, or Spirit of America and help Lebanese families share our blessings for at least a few days.”

-ATFL Vice President for Policy Jean AbiNader

Lebanon’s Elderly Population Devastated by Crash

The International Labor Organization (ILO) reports that Lebanon is one of only sixteen countries in the world that does not offer social security. 11% of Lebanon’s population is over 65, making it home to the largest populations of senior citizens in the Middle East. The ILO also estimates that a shocking 80% of Lebanese over 65 do not have health care coverage. The elderly population has been particularly hard-hit in the current economic crisis. [Al Monitor]

RESPONSE

“Is it criminal negligence or politics as usual that Lebanon is one of 16 countries in the world that don’t offer social security? It has the oldest population in the region, and they don’t have the options of their children to take work or emigrate. Lebanon is aging rapidly but there is still little consideration by the government to provide a basic package of social services for those who have spent their lives supporting governments that did not give back by ensuring minimal dignity in old age. This is wrong, just wrong. Time to mobilize the elderly to vote!”

-ATFL Vice President for Policy Jean AbiNader

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 12/10/2021

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DAILY NEWS

Judge Bitar Demands Immediate Arrest of MP Ali Hassan Khalil
Judge Tarek Bitar demanded the arrest of MP Ali Hassan Khalil – considered the right-hand man to Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, leader of the Shiite Amal Movement – after he refused to appear before a court concerning the investigation of the August 4th Port of Beirut Explosion. “The refusal of a security apparatus to implement an arrest warrant constitutes a dangerous precedent that goes against the decisions of the judicial authority,” a judicial source said. [L’Orient Today]

Prime Minister Miqati Requests Energy Support from Egypt
PM Najib Miqati’s visit to Cairo involved the request of natural gas from Egypt to fill urgent needs in the Lebanese electricity sector. The request comes in the midst of Lebanon’s dire fuel and electricity crises. [Reuters]

FPM Head Gebran Bassil Denounces Labor Minister’s Decision to Expand Working Rights to Palestinians, Minister Defends Decision
“The decision of the Minister of Labor to allow Palestinians and stateless persons to exercise dozens of professions reserved for the Lebanese is a violation of the Labor Code and the constitution,” said Free Patriotic Movement Gebran Bassil on Twitter. [L’Orient Today] Labor Minister Mustafa Bayram, who is affiliated with FPM ally Hezbollah, defended the decision, saying “the Lebanese worker is protected.” [L’Orient Today]

Tripoli High School Teacher Accused of Harassment Arrested
After student actions involving sit-ins and protests demanded justice against a high school teacher at George Sarraf Public High School in Tripoli, Samer Mawlawi was arrested by order of the Lebanese Education Minister Abbas Halabi. Mawlawi confirmed that he is closely related to Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi, who shares the family name. [The961]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Economic Bits of Interest
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, “I am an avid reader of ‘Lebanon This Week,’ a weekly, English-language report published by the Byblos Bank Economic Research and Analysis Department headed by our colleague Nassib Ghobril…There are several items of interest from the November 27, 2021 edition that are worth sharing and analyzing, given what it tells us about the state of ‘resilience’ in the Lebanese economy and whether or not that descriptor is even appropriate. The first note comes from the Milken Institute’s Global Opportunities Index (GOI) which identified the investment climate in 143 countries to help foreign investors decide on where to place their money. In 2021, Lebanon has slid down 19 places, from 87th to 106th worldwide, as well as down two places among Arab countries, now in 10th place…”

Read More Here

The National Interest
Can Qatar End Lebanon’s Economic Crisis?
Adnan Nasser

Nasser writes, “This appears to be a moment for optimism. It could hardly come at a better time. Lebanon’s economy is in shambles, with some people digging through trash simply to find food to eat. This can be the start of Lebanon’s turnaround, but that can only happen when its leaders create permanent solutions through the practice of good governance and respect for the rule of law—not from robbing its people and then asking for a handout.”

Read More Here

Al-Monitor
Lebanese Opt for New Emigration Destinations Amid Crises
Rabih Damaj

Damaj writes, “Lebanon is witnessing one of the biggest waves of emigration in its history as the country faces its worst socio-economic conditions amid a worsening political crisis; Turkey, Armenia and Georgia have become new destinations.”

Read More Here

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.

Lebanon Daily News Brief 12/9/2021

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DAILY NEWS

Detained American Journalist Released by General Security
Yesterday, American journalist Nada Homsi was released by General Security after human rights groups called for her immediate release from what they described as an arbitrary detention following her arrest on November 16. [AP]

Labor Minister Relaxes Labor Restrictions to be More Inclusive of Palestinians
Lebanese Labor Minister Mustafa Bayram lifted restrictions on certain trade-union regulated professions that were previously limited to Lebanese nationals, allowing Palestinian refugees to enter professions in sectors such as law, engineering, medicine, and public transportation. [L’Orient Today]

Lebanon’s Central Bank Sets a New Rate of 8,000 LBP for Withdrawals
The exchange rate used for withdrawals from bank deposits nominated in dollars was set at 8,000 LBP to 1 USD, replacing the previous value of the rate at 3,900 LBP. The current market rate, which represents the currency’s real value, is around 25,000 LBP to 1 USD. [Reuters]

Al-Jadeed Investigative Journalist Riad Kobeissi wins State Department Anticorruption Champions Award
Yesterday, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced the second annual cohort of Anticorruption Champions in commemoration of International Anticorruption Day. [State Department] Riad Kobeissi of Al-Jadeed was recognized alongside eleven other recipients from around the world for his investigative reporting of corruption at the Port of Beirut, which he began exposing at least seven years prior to the August 4th, 2020 explosion. [Naharnet]

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Economic Bits of Interest
Jean AbiNader

AbiNader writes, “I am an avid reader of ‘Lebanon This Week,’ a weekly, English-language report published by the Byblos Bank Economic Research and Analysis Department headed by our colleague Nassib Ghobril…There are several items of interest from the November 27, 2021 edition that are worth sharing and analyzing, given what it tells us about the state of ‘resilience’ in the Lebanese economy and whether or not that descriptor is even appropriate. The first note comes from the Milken Institute’s Global Opportunities Index (GOI) which identified the investment climate in 143 countries to help foreign investors decide on where to place their money. In 2021, Lebanon has slid down 19 places, from 87th to 106th worldwide, as well as down two places among Arab countries, now in 10th place…”

Read more here

Foreign Policy
Lebanon’s Reformers Trade the Street for the Ballot Box
Tessa Fox

Tessa Fox writes, “The number of diaspora Lebanese who registered to vote in next year’s election has soared to 244,442, a big jump from the 93,000 registered for the 2018 election. People who lost everything—even their homeland—in the last two years will likely vote angry. And the diaspora vote is important in another way: Overseas voters are freed from the clientelistic networks that often chain people to their parties in Lebanon. Traditional political parties intentionally make the state weak in order to monopolize key services, and as elections draw closer, clientelism only increases.”

Read More Here

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.