October 24, 2021
Prospective Lebanon Gas Supplies via Syria Exempt from Sanctions
Parliament Approves March 27 Elections, Aoun Sends It Back
New Scientific Studies on Ammonium Nitrate from Port Blast
US Reassures Lebanon Gas Supplies Through Syria Shielded From Caesar Law
Participants in the project to supply Lebanon with Egyptian gas will be shielded from the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Law, Lebanon’s state news agency (NNA) reported, citing a statement by the ministry. [Reuters] Senior Advisor for Global Energy Security Amos Hochstein said, “We have a sanctions regime against Syria. It is not against Lebanon. It has nothing to do with Lebanon. It is entirely to do with Syria.” [U.S. Embassy in Lebanon]
RESPONSE
“In reassuring Lebanon’s energy minister that shipping gas to Lebanon through Syria would be free from Caesar act sanctions, it is vitally important for the US to make clear its policy with regard to Syria, including its intention on whether it plans to normalize relations with the Assad regime and how that affects a US-Lebanon policy. The Lebanese people are suffering due to the country’s current energy crisis. It is encouraging that the US was able to mobilize regional allies Egypt and Jordan to help meet the needs of the Lebanese people and partially address this crisis. Controversially, although the pipeline flows through Syria, the US has made clear that all participants in the project will be waived from the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Law. As some Arab states have begun making overtures to the Assad regime, the US should reassert that this waiver is one that is focused on assistance to the Lebanese people in the midst of a humanitarian crisis and reassert that it does not plan to normalize relations with the Assad regime.”
-ATFL President Edward M. Gabriel
Parliament Approves March 27 Elections Date, President Aoun Sends Amendments Back
Lebanese President Michel Aoun on Friday sent a law amending legislative election rules back to parliament for reconsideration, the presidency said in a statement. [Reuters] Parliament on Tuesday voted to approve a bill bringing forward the elections date from May to March 27, as it amended the electoral law to cancel the six expat seats as well as megacenters and the magnetic voting card. Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil meanwhile objected to the change of the elections date and the cancellation of expat seats and megacenters. [Naharnet] “Shortening the constitutional deadline that comes ahead of the elections exposes the electoral process to the voters’ absence due to climate and logistical reasons,” Aoun added. [Reuters]
RESPONSE
“Parliament’s actions both empower and disempower expatriate voting. Registrations are rapidly increasing worldwide as the more than 12 million overseas Lebanese are deeply motivated to bring Lebanon back from the brink – 300,000 of whom have left since the thawra of October 2019. The veto on the megacenters, which would have provided polls at central locations in Lebanon rather than voters having to return to their ancestral village, was voted down on a legal technicality. The election arouses deep feelings among both proponents and skeptics who claim that the results will either facilitate necessary leadership changes or won’t make any difference. Electioneering in the coming months will indicate if the status quo parties sense a threat from those still chanting killon ya’neh killon, ‘all of them means all of them’, and if the parties will try their best to marginalize them.”
-ATFL Policy Director Jean AbiNader
New Scientific Studies Suggest Ammonium Nitrate of Beirut Blast Was Much Less Than Claimed
A study published in Shock Waves, a physical science journal specialized in shock and detonation phenomena, showed that the explosion was the equivalent of 200 tonnes of TNT, not 1,000+, which means the exploded quantity involved ‘only’ 520 tonnes of ammonium nitrate and not 2,750 tonnes. [The961] The FBI’s October 7, 2020 report estimates that around 552 tonnes of ammonium nitrate exploded that day, much less than the 2,754 tonnes that arrived on a Russian-leased cargo ship in 2013. [Reuters] If only one-fifth of the shipment exploded, where did the rest go? [The961]
RESPONSE
“Since the FBI concluded its partial investigation in October 2020 with the finding that barely 20% of the original shipment of ammonium nitrate exploded, little effort has been exerted to augment these findings until these two recent analyses were completed and released. The question of course is, ‘What happened to the rest of the shipment?’ This has led to many conspiracy theories and clues, many of which involve smuggling from the port to the Assad regime for use in barrel bombs. If there is truth to these speculations, a veritable crime against humanity is on the shoulders of those implicated in turning a blind eye to the storage issue.”
-ATFL Policy Director Jean AbiNader
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a non-profit, nonpartisan leadership organization of Lebanese-Americans.